tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36619590231662220602024-03-13T23:10:54.871-07:00Asian Footprint WatchAsia Pacific is the biggest sink of biocapacity in the Planet jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-63311148345214243182015-01-22T00:24:00.000-08:002015-01-22T06:16:15.473-08:00APEC blue in China: air pollution data are censored after controversy on PM2.5 data released from US-Embassy in Beijing <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vfQxvWbYebk/VMCp09d3MKI/AAAAAAAABoU/B7vXWwm6z2M/s1600/AFW38-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vfQxvWbYebk/VMCp09d3MKI/AAAAAAAABoU/B7vXWwm6z2M/s1600/AFW38-1.jpg" height="248" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The air
pollution in Beijing and surrounding areas were supposed to be reduced by one third before the November 2014 APEC meeting, through a series of air pollution
control measures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">"China
will take action at the highest level to ensure air quality during the APEC
meeting," said the vice president of the Chinese Academy of Environmental
Sciences.</span>"It is
expected that the discharge of pollutants in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
will be reduced from 30 to 40 percent, and air quality will hopefully be
further improved," he had said.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US">To prepare this APEC meeting scheduled from 8 to 10 Nov. 2014, Beijing had
closed since June 2014 some of its plants, eliminated the old vehicles, used clean
energy, and closed more than 300 polluting factories to reduce emissions.</span>The use of
car based on an even or odd number depending of the day was also planned to reduced
by almost half the number of cars in the meeting.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Vice
Premier Zhang Gaoli stated that the guarantee of the quality of the air for the
APEC meeting was the "top priority". <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Nevertheless the above
picture is showing vehicles driving on Beijing's Fourth Ring Road amid heavy
smog, on Oct 24, 2014 [<a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-10/26/content_18802904.htm">Photo/Agencies</a>]. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The AQI issued on a daily basis by the various AQI data providers on the internet, including MEP and US Embassy in the run up of APEC meeting were showing that the pollution was not controled and also extremely high. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Government efforts to control smog ahead of the Nov.
5-11 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation events in Beijing had gained so much
attention that the clearer skies programme got a nickname, “<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-11/china-blocks-smog-data-after-failing-to-clean-skies-before-apec.html">APEC blue</a>”. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">China government after failing to clean the skies before APEC meeting tried to put the blame on the smog data providers and especially the US Embassy and decided to block all MEP AQI and Air pollution data publications. </span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Why censoring the monthly publications of air
quality and pollution data of the 190 major Chinese cities released from Jan.
2014?</span></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As a consequence the monthly
publications of air quality and pollution data of the 190 major Chinese cities
(AQI derived from the concentration of the various pollutants: PM2.5, PM10
etc..) are censored by the China’s Ministry of Environment Pollution (MEP)
since November 2014. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">No air
quality data was provided concerning the last two months of 2014, which will
prohibit - if the MEP deadlock is maintained- to assess urban air quality for
the 190 cities throughout 2014. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This
interruption is very damaging to the complete information of the population on
the quality of the air, in order to prevent the risks and prepare the provisions to be taken.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> </span><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">What was really the situation of Beijing Air
Pollution using the available data from MEP and US Embassy?</span></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The air
quality index (AQI) and associated pollutants concentration were obtained from
the monthly average of the 190 main cities released progressively by MEP since
2013. No detailed data is provided concerning hourly and daily air pollutant
apart from the number of days where AQI is above 100 or 50. As the PM2.5 is
most of the time the main pollutant AQI is in clause relation with the PM2.5
level with AQI=135 when PM2.5=100 for instance (see my blog dated 11 Dec.
2013). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The air pollution
data from US Embassy are obtained from the <a href="http://www.stateair.net/web/historical/1/3.html">US Stateair feed</a> </span><span lang="EN-US">. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">They include the hourly PM2.5
only on 5 cities Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and Shenyang. These cities are among the biggest in PRC
with Shanghai N°1 (22Mil), Beijing N°2 (19Mil), Guangzhou N°4 (11Mil), Chengdu
N°8 (7Mil) and Shenyang N°14 (6Mil).
These cities are being reported by MEP since Nov. 2013 and we have a 12
months past information comparable to the US Embassy data. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The
following figure 1 is showing </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">monthly
PM2.5 concentration in Beijing as issued by MEP or US Embassy on the latest 12
months period available ( Nov. 2013 to Oct. 2014) plus an estimation of Nov.
2013 based on US Embassy.</span><span lang="EN-US">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The missing
Nov 2014 PM2.5 of Beijing average is estimated from Nov. 2014 PM2.5 at
US_Embassy by applying Nov 2013 correlation number (1.26) between both Nov 2013
concentrations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Beijing
monthly average increased by 19% compared to the value in November 2013.
However, this situation is a major effort of the municipality to reduce
pollution for the duration of the APEC meeting and this results necessarily
more pollution than when the situation is normal!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HV1N-1DU68E/VMCp19NhCWI/AAAAAAAABoc/xUbb1xCmgeQ/s1600/AFW38-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HV1N-1DU68E/VMCp19NhCWI/AAAAAAAABoc/xUbb1xCmgeQ/s1600/AFW38-2.png" height="404" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">: Monthly PM2.5 concentration in Beijing as issued by MEP or US Embassy
on Nov. 2013 to Oct. 2014 plus an estimation of Nov. 2013 based on US Embassy<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Altogether,
both data are extremely comparable because the US Embassy is a specific
location in Beijing while the MEP monthly is averaged on the entire Beijing
Municipality area which is around 17000km2 with a great variety of
density between urban districts (30000 people/km2) - where is located the US
Embassy- and suburbs 4000people/km2.<br />
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<span lang="EN-US">On the
other hand the MEP does not provide information on hourly detailed pollution in
specific sites where pollutants are measured. And the method used to determine the
average value for the entire city is unknown: is-it an arithmetic mean or is it weighted by the density of the urban
population?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">What is the relationship between hourly, daily and monthly PM2.5 in
Beijing?</span></span></b></h3>
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The
figure 2 below compares for PM2.5 concentration daily data issued by US Embassy with monthly MEP data. We see arge number of high daily values even
for the month of November 2014 with 2 days with PM2.5 daily value >300<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: small; line-height: 18.3999996185303px;">µg/m3</span>.</span><br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WjIC_q1AUEg/VMCp2IprQHI/AAAAAAAABog/9DXaW-XMKUo/s1600/AFW38-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WjIC_q1AUEg/VMCp2IprQHI/AAAAAAAABog/9DXaW-XMKUo/s1600/AFW38-3.png" height="418" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 2: Comparison of PM2.5 measurements daily (US Embassy) or monthly values (MEP)</span></span></h4>
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</tbody></table>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">During the measuring period of 13 months or 395 days, there were all together 121
days or 31% of the total days where PM2.5 > 115µg/m3, which is about AQI> 150.
We find comparable figures concerning MEP considering it is over a period of 12
months. However, we see that MEP needs to specify the values of PM2.5
that are greater than 100, because there are lots of very high values</span></span></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K_WV9k2IST4/VMCpn165bEI/AAAAAAAABoM/JpCZKrB0Csc/s1600/AFW38-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-K_WV9k2IST4/VMCpn165bEI/AAAAAAAABoM/JpCZKrB0Csc/s1600/AFW38-4.png" height="287" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-39537233486082906552014-09-30T08:38:00.001-07:002014-10-03T22:28:52.043-07:00Most threatened coral reefs in the world are located in Southeast Asia<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3Xl6OhgJSvU/VCrBo8BsomI/AAAAAAAABnM/jiqE6AdHwM8/s1600/AFW37-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-3Xl6OhgJSvU/VCrBo8BsomI/AAAAAAAABnM/jiqE6AdHwM8/s1600/AFW37-2.jpg" height="372" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<b><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;">Thermal stress can cause coral reefs to bleach from
losing their symbiotic algae giving them colour</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"> (<a href="http://imgarcade.com/1/bleached-coral-reefs-before-and-after">from imgarcade</a>)</span></span></b></h4>
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<b><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Coral reefs are not only a critical habitat for numerous species, they provide also essential ecosystem services such as:</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<br />
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">For food and
livelihood </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">a healthy, well-managed reef can yield between 5 and
15 tons of fish and seafood per square kilometer each year;</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">Reefs are vital in many tropical
countries for developing eco-tourism new revenues:</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">attracting divers, snorkelers, and
recreational fishers, not to mention providing much of the white sand for
beaches;</span></li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">Many
reef-dwelling species have developed complex chemical compounds- such as venoms
and chemical defenses- aiding their survival in highly competitive habitats which
might offer the basis of life-saving new pharmaceuticals including treatments
for cancer, HIV, malaria, and other diseases;</span></li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-indent: -18pt;">Beyond their biological value, reefs
dissipate wave energy, reducing erosion and lessening damage during storms with an estimated 150,000 km of reef bordered shoreline in more than 100 countries and
territories; this function protects human settlements, infrastructure, and
valuable coastal ecosystems such as sea grass meadows and mangrove forests.</span></li>
</ul>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Despite
their importance, coral reefs face unprecedented threats throughout most of
their range and many reefs are already degraded and unable to provide the vital
services on which so many people depend. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Some
threats are highly visible and occur directly on reefs. Levels of fishing are
currently unsustainable on a large proportion of the world’s reefs, and have
led to localized extinctions of certain fish species.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Many threats are also the result of human activities occuring far away from reefs, such
as forest clearing, crop cultivation, intensive farming, polluted sewage
runoff and poorly planned coastal development. Pollution and waste from ships
and from oil and gas exploitation further exacerbate the situation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Furthermore beyond these extensive and damaging local-scale impacts, reefs are increasingly
at risk from the global threats associated with rising concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Even in areas where local stress on reefs
are relatively minimal, warming seas have caused mass coral bleaching occurring when corals become thermally stressed and are
massively losing the “zooxanthellae” symbiotic algae that live within their tissues and
normally provide their specific colors. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">It is
rare for any reef to suffer only a single threat. More often the threats are
compounded. For instance, overfishing eliminates a key herbivore such as
“Parrot fish”, while runoff from agriculture supplies nutrients that cause a
bloom in macro algae, impairing the growth of coral
and ultimately reducing the competitive ability of coral communities.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Despite
widespread recognition that reefs are severely threatened, information
regarding threat assessment to specific reefs are limited. Only a fraction of
reefs have been studied or monitored consistently over time- such
as Jamaica, Florida, and Australia’s Great Barrier- where changes in coral
condition are well-documented. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">In most places, however, the availability of
detailed information is limited, inhibiting effective management.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">More
than 15 years after the foundation of the </span><span lang="EN-US">World Reef Initiative (WRI)</span><span lang="EN-US">, reef maps are showing clearly that the growth in threats has
largely outpaced efforts to address those threats. </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">In the
mid-1990s, climate change was still perceived as a somewhat distant threat.
However, in 1998, a powerful El Niño event further increased sea surface
temperatures that were already rising due to climate change, triggering the
most severe and expansive coral bleaching event on record.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As a
result an update of the global coral reef threats analysis is clearly necessary
in order to identify and understand the outcome and implications of changes to the world’s
reefs and to help guide targeted interventions aimed at mitigating existing
threats .<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<h3 style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Ranking of worldwide human threats to
coral reefs </span></span></b></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">(see “WRI-Coral Reefs at risk revisited-2011”)</span><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">There is a difference between
threats and damages. A threat analysis is an assessment of the likeliness (within
0-100%) of a specified type of damage. A
threat model </span><span lang="EN-US">measures
threat rather than real conditions.</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Concerning coral reefs, harmful damage might result from the following threats:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Overfishing and
destructive fishing : such as destruction of fish
habitat and species;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Watershed land-based
pollution : discharge of land base
sediment or pollutant ; </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Coastal
development : sewage
and pollutions from ports, industry, resorts; </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Marine-based
pollution and damage : discharge of marine
waste and marine fuels;</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Thermal stress : damage
from sea surface temperature increase.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">
</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KtQ7AKtWUBY/VCrBaEwnMxI/AAAAAAAABnA/G0dps4zbkbI/s1600/AFW36-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KtQ7AKtWUBY/VCrBaEwnMxI/AAAAAAAABnA/G0dps4zbkbI/s1600/AFW36-7.png" height="418" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4 style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 1 :
Worldwide human local threats to coral reefs
(WRI 2011)</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Overfishing and destructive fishing</span></b></span><br />
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><br /><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Threats to coral reefs from overfishing
were evaluated based on coastal population</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">density and extent of fishing areas, with</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">adjustments to account for the increased
demand due to proximity to large</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">populations and
market centers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Areas where destructive fishing occurs
(with</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">explosives or poisons such as cyanide)
were also included, based on observations from monitoring</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">and mapping expert analysis.</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The threat estimate was reduced inside
marine protected areas rated by experts as having “effective” or “partially
effective” management</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">(meaning that a
level of management is present that helps to guard ecological</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">integrity).</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Limitations: </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<br />
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Accurate, spatially referenced global data on fishing methods, catches,</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">and number of fishers were not available;
therefore, population pressure</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">is used as a
proxy for overfishing.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">The model fails to capture the targeting of very high value species,</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">which affects most reefs globally, but has
fewer ecosystem impacts</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">than wider
scale overfishing.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Management effectiveness scores were only available for about 83% of</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">the reefs within marine protected areas.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
Reef regions ranking for o<span lang="EN-US">verfishing and destructive fishing (see Figure 2 below)</span>: most threatened are Southeast Asia (N°1) & Atlantic (N°2); less threatened are Pacific (N°5) and Australia (N°6).<br />
<br />
<br />
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Watershed land-based pollution</span></span></b></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The threat from land-based pollutants was
modeled over 300,000</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">watersheds
(catchments area drained by a river and its tributaries) discharging to coastal
waters.</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">Relative erosion rates were estimated
across the landscape based on slope,</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">land cover type, precipitation, and soil
type.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Sediment delivery at the river mouth was
estimated based on total erosion in</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">the watershed,
adjusted for the sediment delivery ratio (based on watershed</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">size) and sediment trapping by dams and
mangroves.</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Sediment plume dispersion was modeled
using a linear decay rate and was calibrated against actual sediment plumes
observed from</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">satellite data.
The model represents a proxy for sediment, nutrient, and pollutant</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">delivery. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Limitations:</span> </span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">Nutrient deliveries to coastal waters were probably underestimated due
to a lack of spatial data on crop cultivation and fertilizer application.
However, agricultural land is treated as a separate category of land</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">cover, weighted for a higher influence.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">The model does not incorporate nutrient and pollutant inputs from</span><b style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-indent: -18pt;">industry, or from intensive livestock
farming, which might be considerable.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Reef regions ranking for w</span><span lang="EN-US">atershed land-based pollution (see Figure 2 below)</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">: </span>most threatened are Southeast Asia (N°1) & India (N°2); less threatened are Middle East (N°5) and Australia (N°6)<br />
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Coastal development</span></span></b><br />
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">The threat to coral reefs from coastal
development was modeled based on size</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">of cities, ports, and airports; size and
density of hotels; and coastal population</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">pressure (a combination of population
density, growth, and tourism growth).</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Limitations:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Indicators were likely to miss some</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">new constructions works and tourism
locations.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
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<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">The model does not directly capture sewage discharge, but relies on population as</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">a proxy for costal development threat.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.3999996185303px;">Reef regions ranking for coastal development</span><span lang="EN-US"> (see Figure 2 below)</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.3999996185303px;">: </span>most threatened are Southeast Asia (N°1) & India (N°2); less threatened are Pacific (N°5) and Australia (N°6).<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fNuylujPJ6o/VCrByVznH-I/AAAAAAAABnU/UB5VJBE9N6I/s1600/AFW36-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fNuylujPJ6o/VCrByVznH-I/AAAAAAAABnU/UB5VJBE9N6I/s1600/AFW36-6.png" height="424" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 2 : Comparison of local and past
thermal threats by region (WRI 2011</span><span lang="EN-US">) </span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Marine-based pollution and damage</span></span></b><br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Threat from marine-based
pollution and damage were based on</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">the size and
volume of commercial shipping ports, size and volume of cruise</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">ship ports, intensity of shipping traffic,
and the location of oil infrastructure.</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Limitations:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">Threat associated with shipping intensity might be underestimated</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">because the data were based on voluntary
ship tracking, and does</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">not include
fishing vessels.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">The threat model does not account for marine waste (such as plastics),</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">discarded fishing gear, recreational
vessels or shipwrecks, due to a lack</span><b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="text-indent: -18pt;">of global spatial data on these threats.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<ul>
<li><span lang="EN-US">The four local threats described above were then combined to provide an integrated local threat index. Past
thermal stress as described below were treated as an additional</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">threat.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.3999996185303px;">Reef regions ranking for m</span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">arine-based pollution and damage</span></span> (see Figure 2 above)</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.3999996185303px;">: </span>most threatened are Atlantic (N°1) & Middle East (N°2); less threatened are Indian (N°5) and Southeast Asia (N°6).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thermal stress</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Estimation of thermal stress over the past
10 years (1998 to 2007) combining the</span><b><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b><span lang="EN-US">following two data layers:</span><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #364c5f; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: TradeGothicLT-CondEighteen; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #364c5f; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: TradeGothicLT-CondEighteen; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt;">P</span><span lang="EN-US">ast intense heating events. These were
areas known to have had high temperature anomalies (scores of degree heating
weeks > 8), based on satellite sea surface temperature data provided by NOAA
Coral Reef Watch; and<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">Observations of severe bleaching from
Reef Base (see <a href="http://www.reefbase.org/projects_partners/projects.aspx?projectid=15">ReefBase</a>)</span><span lang="EN-US"> . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">How to assess the outcome of threats which are real damage and true habitat condition on reefs?</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">A
unique and important feature of the </span><span lang="EN-US">Reefs at Risk </span><span lang="EN-US">approach
is its global coverage—assessing threats to all reefs, even those far from
human habitation and scientific outreach. It is, however, a model, and it
measures as explained above threat rather than condition. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The only way to accurately assess condition is through direct measurement of
fish, benthic cover (live coral, dead coral, algae, etc.), or other
characteristics. Some reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef, have detailed
and regular surveys covering numerous areas, but worldwide such
observation or monitoring are sparse and irregular. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12pt;">
Some threatened reefs may still be healthy, but many others might have already suffered some level of degradation.</div>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></b></h3>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Where are located the most threatened coral regions?</span></span></b></h3>
<div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The Figure 3 & 4 below are showing that Southeast Asia (N°1 ranking) and Atlantic Reefs (N°2) regions are relatively the most threatened reef regions in the world; then slightly better: Indian Ocean (N°3) and Middle East (N°4); then Pacific (N°5) less than the averaged global risk; Australia's Great barrier reefs being much less threatened (N°6).</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Globally, after factoring by the coral reef regions' area, more than 60% of worldwide coral reefs (about 150,000 km2) are threatened by human local activities (see Figue 3 below) and about 75% (about 185,000 km2) are threatened when past thermal stress is included. </span></span><br />
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Gel0ZSD4MFY/VCrCHHN7OhI/AAAAAAAABnc/ubnNwc11ANo/s1600/AFW36-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Gel0ZSD4MFY/VCrCHHN7OhI/AAAAAAAABnc/ubnNwc11ANo/s1600/AFW36-4.png" height="412" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 3 : Integrated local threats consist
of the four local threats—overfishing and destructive fishing, marine pollution
and damage, coastal development, and watershed-based pollution</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r74UemJDuNc/VCrCHepGrfI/AAAAAAAABnk/hOttjO27OMk/s1600/AFW36-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-r74UemJDuNc/VCrCHepGrfI/AAAAAAAABnk/hOttjO27OMk/s1600/AFW36-5.png" height="424" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 4 :
</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Amount of reef area (in sq km) in each region
classified by integrated local threat categorized as low, medium, and high; the
four local threats are integrated plus the thermal stress during the past ten
years; this figure summarizes current threats: future warming and acidification
are not included</span><span style="font-family: TradeGothicLT-CondEighteen, sans-serif; font-size: 7pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
On all counts of relatively (see Figure 3 above) or absolute (see Figure 4 ) threats Shouteast Asia is always the most threatened reef regions in the world and Australia is always the best ranking.<br />
<br />
This means
that the Southeast Asia is definitely the place where the long-term
conservation of coral reefs in the world is at stake, including the survival of many biological species that live there.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-44250445864009694162014-09-29T03:53:00.003-07:002014-10-03T22:43:56.606-07:00The largest coral reefs in the world and the most valuable for their biodiversity are located in Southeast Asia<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TtqD219Vlkw/VC-IrQgiUkI/AAAAAAAABn8/68FrYtV4GIY/s1600/AFW36-1b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-TtqD219Vlkw/VC-IrQgiUkI/AAAAAAAABn8/68FrYtV4GIY/s1600/AFW36-1b.png" height="210" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h4 style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext;"><span style="font-size: small;">Most worldwide coral reefs are located in the Indian & Pacific and a small portion of Atlantic oceans </span></span></h4>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h4 style="font-size: 12.7272720336914px; text-align: center;">
<br /></h4>
<div style="text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Coral reefs
and old growth forests are both nature richest realms. They are deriving
their primary energy from plants thriving from solar radiation. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">As a result their
location is within 30°S & 30°N latitudes where sun activity and temperature
are at their maximum. Both are extremely complex systems consisting of numerous
micro habitats and huge number of species.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Coral reefs
today represent a development episode of only some thousand years ago when sea
level remained relatively stable, because 15,000 years ago seas were as much as
150m below the present level. As explained by Charles Darwin’s theory for Coral
Reefs development they are closely related to volcano island subsidence and sea
level fluctuations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Environmental
conditions exert a great influence on determining how an individual coral polyp
copes with its basic needs. Optimum coral reefs are strongly correlated with very
clean and relatively shallow waters (<70m depth) to obtain maximum
sunlight at a warm temperature (optimum 23°-24°C). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But during periods of million years, succeeding generations of coral species became gradually modified in a manner allowing them to utilize </span></span>most efficiently <span style="font-family: inherit;">their environment. The end result is communities of organism that are finely
tuned to their environment.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Why should we care about coral reefs in Asia
Pacific?</span></span></b></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Southeast Asia contains
the largest area of coral reefs in the world known as the </span><a href="http://www.worldwildlife.org/what/wherewework/coraltriangle/"><span lang="EN-US">Coral Triangle</span></a><span lang="EN-US"> shared between Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, </span></span>Timor-Leste, <span style="font-family: inherit;">Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, .</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The biodiversity of coral reefs in Southeast
Asia is unparalleled in the world according to the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network in
their 2008 report on the status of </span><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.gcrmn.org/status2008.aspx"><span lang="EN-US">coral reefs</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US">More than 138 million people in Southeast Asia
live on the coast within 30 km of a coral reef, which is more than in all of
the other coral reef regions combined. Fish, including reef fish, form a major part
of the diet even in urban populations; across the region,</span><span lang="EN-US"> fish and seafood provide an average of 36% of dietary animal protein.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
Among the coral triangle countries, such as Malaysia and the Solomon Islands, tourism had enabled a rapid diversification of
the economy and coral reefs had become one of the most attractive destination.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<h3 style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Contribution
of observation satellites to coral reef mapping and monitoring</span></span></b></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US">Since the
late 1990s, the contribution of satellites for remote sensing of coral reefs
has been fundamental to improving their mapping and monitoring. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The observation
satellites – such as Landsat (USA), Spot (EU) or IRS (India) - with optical sensor
resolutions ranging from 10 to 50 m and capable of recording the radiation
emitted in the visible and IR by the benthic environment, make it possible to
obtain after treatment very accurate mapping of coral reefs, while monitoring
their health and surveying the quality of their environment (bleaching thermal
stress). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Specific
treatments can eliminate noise as sun glint factors of the marine environment.
The study of spectral signatures help to differentiate the various components
of the benthic coral habitat: type of coral, living or dead, type of coral
rubble, type of green algae or red by the absorption due to the presence of
specific pigments, discrimination of coral sand or silt sediments by their
reflectance, correction of the light signal attenuation in the water column by
bathymetric treatment etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The University
of South Florida (USF) had provided an exhaustive worldwide inventory of coral
reefs using high-resolution satellite imagery. By using a consistent dataset of
high-resolution multispectral Landsat 7 images acquired between 1999 and 2002,
USF characterized, mapped and estimated the extent of shallow coral reef
ecosystems in the main coral reef provinces (Caribbean-Atlantic, Pacific,
Indo-Pacific, Red Sea).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Similar
studies were conducted in Europe (IRD) , Australia and Indonesia from the data
supplied by Landsat, SPOT, satellites or IRS.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"></span></div>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Distribution of worldwide coral reefs habitat by region</span></span></b></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Under the
project called the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping<b> </b>a team of international researchers compiled an updated inventory
of all "marine protected areas" containing coral reefs and compared
it with the most detailed and comprehensive satellite inventory of coral reefs. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The World Reef Initiative (WRI) was
founded in 1994 by eight governments: Australia, France, Japan, Jamaica, the
Philippines, Sweden, UK, and the USA. It was announced at the First Conference
of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity in December 1994, and
at the high level segment of the Intersessional Meeting of the U.N. Commission
on Sustainable Development in April 1995. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The main
result concerning the distribution of worldwide coral reefs by region is
summarize in the following Figures 1 & 2 (see <a href="http://www.wri.org/publication/reefs-risk-revisited">RWI 2011 Coral Reefs revisited </a>)</span><span lang="EN-US">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The world’s
coral reefs are covering an area of approximately 250,000 sq km which the
richest concentration being in Southeast Asia (30% of all coral reef areas in
the planet), then Pacific (28%) and Australia (17%), followed by Indian Ocean
(13%), Atlantic (10%) and the Middle East (6%) (see Figure 1 & 2).</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZO9Wf3L9ZHo/VCk0tph9m0I/AAAAAAAABmk/4oOJ3DOrr2A/s1600/AFW36-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZO9Wf3L9ZHo/VCk0tph9m0I/AAAAAAAABmk/4oOJ3DOrr2A/s1600/AFW36-2.png" height="230" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4 style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US">1</span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></b><![endif]--></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">: Distribution of Coral Reefs by regions (From WRI 2011)</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lpSc2zCVz3I/VCk0yiralUI/AAAAAAAABms/hOeYWx7dVt0/s1600/AFW36-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lpSc2zCVz3I/VCk0yiralUI/AAAAAAAABms/hOeYWx7dVt0/s1600/AFW36-3.png" height="418" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Figure </span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">2</span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:
normal'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> :
Distribution of Coral Reefs and the associated population by regions (From WRI
2011)</span></b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Coral Reefs associated human population</span>
</span></span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">As reported
in WRI “<a href="http://www.wri.org/publication/reefs-risk-revisited">Reefs at risk revisited -201</a>1”</span><span lang="EN-US"> , the coral’s reefs associated
worldwide population could be featured by two values:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Close
population </span><span lang="EN-US">within 10 km of coast and 30 km </span><span lang="EN-US">from the reef </span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">: 275 Mil</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Larger
area population </span><span lang="EN-US">within 100 km of the reef </span><span lang="EN-US">: 850 Mil</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--WD0-0Sx6Uk/VCk0b3mxNRI/AAAAAAAABmU/Op--evAWzZ0/s1600/AFW36-8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--WD0-0Sx6Uk/VCk0b3mxNRI/AAAAAAAABmU/Op--evAWzZ0/s1600/AFW36-8.png" height="232" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
style='color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span lang=EN-US>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span></span><span
style='color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='color:black;
mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US"> :
Population associated with coral reefs by regions</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">There is a great variation of the population close to
the reefs: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Highly populated reef areas are: Indian Ocean 2065.5
people /km2; Southeast Asia 1,983.9, Atlantic 1,645.8 and Middle Eas 1,322.4</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 37.5pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">Low populated reef areas are: Pacific 113.5, Australia 82.9</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The ratio between larger and close area populations
for reefs region is more or less stable between 2.5 (for low population countries) to 3.5 (highly
populated).</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Are coral reefs doomed to shrink progressively? </span></span></b></h4>
<div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">We must
never forget that when we are seeing the coral reefs distribution around the world
such as the one presented here, it is a snapshot in a development episode of some
5000 years of coral reefs life. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Coral have disappeared or have been greatly reduced
in every part of the world. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Over the past 50 years for example, the Great
Barrier Reef in Australia has decreased by 50% due to agricultural and
industrial development of the western side of Australia! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Most of this coral reef reduction is due to the extraordinary development of people living on Earth which
increased by a factor of 2.3 in average over the past 50 years, due to the correlative
increase or human population direct or indirect pressure on coral reefs which are particularly
heavy in the Asian Pacific region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">So our ocean
and coral reefs are changing a lot and what we see today- if we don’t take the greatest
care - maybe is doomed to shrink progressively! There in the contemplation of
the beauty of corals a fragile and transient aspect and perhaps we must keep the
memory of what will perhaps one day disappear.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 10.6pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Such is the aim of the <a href="http://catlinseaviewsurvey.com/">Catlin Seaview Survey</a> study </span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">which is a
unique global study, working with some of the world's leading
scientific institutions, dedicated to monitoring our oceans change
and communicating on it to the world. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 10.6pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 10.6pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The aim of the survey is to document a </span><span lang="EN-US">baseline record </span><span lang="EN-US">by video and pictures </span><span lang="EN-US">of the
world’s coral reefs seaview, in high-resolution panoramic vision.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 10.6pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Our oceans are changing</span><span lang="EN-US"> and coral reefs are a clear visual indicator of this change – with
a 40% loss of corals around the globe in the last 30 years alone. </span></span><b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">The
painstaking work that scientists realize could well be a kind of archive that
will be quickly out of date due to ocean acidification, bleaching of the reefs, death
of species and habitat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">In addition
to their aesthetic appeal, coral reefs are also natural defenses against waves
and coastal erosion. Their disappearance is a double punishment face of rising
sea levels, expected over the next century.</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-58470815493283730032014-08-07T23:55:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:44:09.169-07:00China's Provinces air pollution ranking from Jan to Jun 2014: Hebei, Hubei, Henan, Beijing, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Xinjiang & Shandong had more than 50-72% of exceedance days <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ivg3eb24WcE/U-Rx64FG2tI/AAAAAAAABkU/aPPbEmkYOBk/s1600/AFW35-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ivg3eb24WcE/U-Rx64FG2tI/AAAAAAAABkU/aPPbEmkYOBk/s1600/AFW35-3.png" height="410" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Bubble pie map of
provinces and municipalities over the first six months of 2014 </span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The 8 following regions and
municipalities (see Figures 2 & 3) have had the </span></span><span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">highest</span><span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">population-weighted average urban
air pollution (1</span><sup style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">st</sup><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> quintile): Hebei,
Hubei, Henan, Beijing, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Xinjiang & Shandong.</span><span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> They concern a population of 139 Mil.</span><span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">These regions and municipalities have had 90-149 exceedance days </span><span style="line-height: 18.399999618530273px;">(50-72% of total 181 days) </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">above the threshold of 100 (AQI) and 75 µg/m3 (PM2.5).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The best regions and municipalities (5th quintile) were Hainan, Yunnan, Fujian, Tibet and Guangdong with only 4-18% exceedance days. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hoEQEHrnaAk/U-RysXP5zLI/AAAAAAAABkc/eFeRGpju-FY/s1600/AFW35-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hoEQEHrnaAk/U-RysXP5zLI/AAAAAAAABkc/eFeRGpju-FY/s1600/AFW35-4.png" height="466" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Figure 1 :</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> Air pollution provinces & municipalities urban air pollution ranking over the first 6 months of 2014
(Jan. to Jun. 2014: 181 days)</span></span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;">The 8 most polluted regions or municipalities are: Hebei (13Mil pop); Hubei (12 mil); Henan (12 Mil), Beijing (19 Mil); Shaanxi (17 Mil); Tianjin (11 Mil); Xinjiang (4 Mil)</span><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"> </span><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;">& Shandong (50 Mil). AQI is around 120-160 and there are more than 55% of days with AQI>100 (90 on 181</span><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"> </span><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;">days).</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As explained in my post dated 22 Sep 2013, AQI is a random variable with a log normal distribution and the repartition of daily AQI above 50 or 100 AQI is more or less correlated with the average AQI value. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The correlation is good for days with daily AQI>100, less good for days with AQI>50 and more loose for days with 50< daily AQI <100.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jEf5haptHYI/U-RzbO-tVeI/AAAAAAAABkk/FLsrfnGQl-4/s1600/AFW35-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jEf5haptHYI/U-RzbO-tVeI/AAAAAAAABkk/FLsrfnGQl-4/s1600/AFW35-6.png" height="418" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 2 : Correlation between average AQI and daily AQI repartition</span></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16.866666793823242px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-2107840845332485272014-08-07T23:41:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:44:36.623-07:00Air pollution in China from Jan to Jun 2014 far exceeds all limits put forward by UE or US standards : out of the 190 major cities, the highest 38 air pollution ranked cities have a population of 113 Mil with 125 exceedance days (70% of days), above 100 AQI or 75µg/m3 (PM2.5) <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V_AAkeGwF-o/U-RuMmFIEII/AAAAAAAABjs/gQrL6I2ZB3Y/s1600/AFW35-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V_AAkeGwF-o/U-RuMmFIEII/AAAAAAAABjs/gQrL6I2ZB3Y/s1600/AFW35-1.png" height="428" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US">Bubble pie map
of cumulated number of daily AQI repartition over the first six month of 2014
(Jan. to Jun. 181 days)</span></h4>
<h4>
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">During
Q2-2014,<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>there had been only a
slight improvement of urban air pollution over Q1, but we still have AQI>100
over 31% of days (29 days over 81 days) for the 190 monitored cities </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">by China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection (see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201406.html">June 2014 MEP Chinese city air quality ranking</a></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">)</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">.</span><br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">After the
first 6 months of 2014: the first 38 air pollution ranked cities out of 190
main Chinese cities (1<sup>st</sup><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>quintile) could be considered as the “core urban polluted area” comprising around forty
cities - among them Jinan, Wuhan, Xi'an, Beijing, Chengdu. This core urban area population of 113 Mil, after 6 months, have had in average 125 cumulated exceedance days (70% of total 181 days), above 100
AQI or 75µg/m3 (PM2.5).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">This is
far exceeding the health exceedance limits put forward by EU and US air
pollution standards where the maximum exceedance days permitted is around 35
days in one year! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">It means
that the concerned population had been exposed to a harmful air pollution level 7
times more important than the </span></span><span style="font-size: small;">level</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">permitted by health regulations. </span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;">
<br />
<b style="text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Air pollution health standards </span></b></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Following our last
post dated 21 July 2014, it is necessary to look more thoroughly at Chinese
cities’ daily AQI inside the first six month period. This information– numbers
of days with daily AQI>50 or AQI>100 - are provided each month by China’s
Ministry of Environmental Protection (see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201406.html">June 2014 MEP Chinese city air quality ranking</a></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">), along with the monthly average of the main pollutants and the
resulting AQI</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Concerning human
health issues we know that what really counts is not the average AQI over defined
monthly, quarterly or 6 months periods - qualified as moderately polluted (50<AQI<100)
or unhealthy for sensitive groups
(100<AQI<150)- but the number of cumulated days where daily AQI
has been above a defined dangerous limit. The longer the cumulated effect the
more dangerous it is.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">There is a cumulative
effect especially for fine particulate matter: after some days of exposure above
this limit a high number of tiny particulate are entering the lung’s cells. In
the coal mining industry the dust contained in the inhaled breath is
transforming progressively the lungs in stone after days and years of
continuous silicate inhaling (silicosis). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Even if AQI level is
classified as lightly polluted following China's standards (or “Unhealthy for
sensitive group” as denominated by US standards): maintaining this risk level
for a lengthly period could be extremely harmful to health. This is the notion
of exceedance days permitted by the air pollution standards: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">For EU (2008-2010)
over a yearly period, there should be less than 36 exceedance days (10% of
days) having air pollution above 50 µg/m3 (PM10) or 50 (AQI); <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">For USA (2012)
over a period of 3 years, there should be less than 2% exceedance days above 35
µg/m3 (PM2.5) or again 50 (AQI).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As fine particulate
matter in China’s city are almost always the main air pollutant as explained in
our previous surveys, the number of exceedance days above 50 - 100 (AQI)or 35-75
µg/m3 (PM2.5) thresholds are two risk levels to consider with a target of a
maximum exceedance days permitted each year . <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">In the following
survey - due to the extremely air polluted China’s situation- we are considering
mainly an interim target of 36 exceedance days in a year (10%) above 100 (AQI) or 75 µg/m3
(PM2.5). </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<h3 style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Situation in China of daily AQI
over Q1 & Q2-2014 or 6 first months of 2014</span></span></b></h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Over Q1 and
Q2- 2014, daily AQI had been above 100 during 40% of days (73.6 days over 181
days).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US">During Q2
there had been only a slight improvement on Q1, but we still have AQI>100
over 32% of days (29 days over 81 days). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">These
values are population weighted average over the monthly values of the 190
monitored cities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<span lang="EN-US"></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CVizIq2zqu4/U-RvbirpWyI/AAAAAAAABj4/5VHWbTdjTyA/s1600/AFW35-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CVizIq2zqu4/U-RvbirpWyI/AAAAAAAABj4/5VHWbTdjTyA/s1600/AFW35-7.png" height="200" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 1: Average
population-weighted evolution of urban daily AQI over first 6 months 2014</span></span></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;">The geographic repartition of urban air pollution is described in zoomed in Figure 2 below: the most polluted urban area or </span></span><span style="font-size: small;">“core polluted area”</span><span style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%;">concerns a urban population of 113 Mil people (2010 census) where 75% of days have been AQI>100!</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eSqcj1SGD9w/U-RwNS9O-zI/AAAAAAAABkI/vzQodfl6YOg/s1600/AFW35-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eSqcj1SGD9w/U-RwNS9O-zI/AAAAAAAABkI/vzQodfl6YOg/s1600/AFW35-2.png" height="592" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><h3 style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px; margin-left: 18pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 2: Bubble pie map of daily urban air pollution in Northern, Middle and Southern China’s regions showing the “core polluted area” (half circle in red) of the 38 worst air polluted cities (first air pollution quintile ranking).</span></span></h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"></span><br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The detail evolution
over the 6 first months of 2014 of this </span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;">“core polluted area”</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> is described in the
following Figure 3:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">38 cities
with an overall population of 113 Mil had in average 125 exceedance days (70%
of total), above 100 AQI or 75µg/m3 (PM2.5); <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">5 cities
in Q1 and 10 cities in Q2 are not in the concerned 6 first months core polluted
area; <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US">
</span>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">Concerning
the biggest cities improving their air quality: Xi’an (Shaanxi) N°12 in Q1 , N°25
on 6 months; Weinan (Shaanxi) N°16 in Q1, N°27 on 6 months; and
Chengdu (Sichuan) N°24 in Q1, N°36 on 6 months;<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US">
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The
biggest cities reducing their relative ranking air
quality: Beijing N°42 in Q1, N°30 on six months; Tangshan (Hebei)
N°15 on Q1, N°9 on 6 months; Jinan (Shandong); Wuhan (Hubei) etc…</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gkJ5D8942O4/U-Rv_U0fr8I/AAAAAAAABkA/Y9FVCdIa9Jg/s1600/AFW35-8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gkJ5D8942O4/U-Rv_U0fr8I/AAAAAAAABkA/Y9FVCdIa9Jg/s1600/AFW35-8.png" height="498" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 3 : First
quintile air pollution ranking cities and cumulated days where daily AQI is
> 100</span></span></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-85158570517906378572014-07-21T00:34:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:44:53.721-07:00Around two thirds of Chinese urban population during the first six months of 2014 have had 40% of days with an unhealthy daily Air Quality Index (AQI> 100) <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0AF_99Xtko/U8y9258zpfI/AAAAAAAABfE/vOrZk2vQBcQ/s1600/AFW34-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-k0AF_99Xtko/U8y9258zpfI/AAAAAAAABfE/vOrZk2vQBcQ/s1600/AFW34-5.png" height="418" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Q2-2014 bubble map of China’s Air Pollution is
showing a concentration of Air Pollution in 8 Northern and middle provinces or
municipalities: Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> Henan & </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Hubei</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The China’s urban Air
Quality ranking is issued monthly by the Ministry of Environmental Protection
(MEP), with Air Quality Index (AQI) and main pollutants concentration of the
190 biggest cities. The last updated data for June 2014 (<a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201406.html">MEP link</a></span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">) was released this month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">AQI population
weighted average over the 190 monitored cities decreased to AQI= 89 in the
second quarter (Q2-2014) after AQI= 119 in Q1-2014. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The urban population
concerned is around 435 Mil based mostly on the last 2010 census</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica","sans-serif"; font-size: 6.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">totaling around 66% of Chinese urban population. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Average days number
with their daily AQI>100 decreased to 29.1 days (on 91 calendar days) during
Q2 after 44.6 days (on 90) during Q1. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Daily AQI>50
decreased to 79.3 days during Q2 after 82.2 days during Q1.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Altogether on the
first 6 months with an urban population of around 435 Mil we had AQI= 104 and
on average 41% of the days with AQI>100 (73.7 days on 181) and around 90% of
the days with AQI>50 (161.5 days on 181 or 89%).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This is far away from
the limit for daily AQI specified by UE and USA:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">UE </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">air quality standards<b> </b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">for 24-hour
exceedance limit applies to the 90.4<sup>th</sup> percentile (cf. EU-PM10
limit), which means that AQI may be greater than 50 but less than 35 exceedance
days (9.6% of calendar days) over a year, not to mention US exceedance limit (cf.
US-PM2.5 limit) which applies to the 98<sup>th</sup> percentile over 3 years
(see my blog dated 22 Sep 2014). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Here we can see on the
first six month of 2014 that we have only 10<sup>th</sup> percentile of days under
the AQI=50 limit! </span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Q2-2014 Air Pollution Ranking</span></span></b></h3>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The most polluted
cities over Q2-2014 are the first quintile of the Air pollution Ranking </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 14.545454025268555px;">(see Figure 1 below)</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">. They
were mostly Northern with few Middle or Western cities :</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Korla N°1 (Xinjiang),
Xingtai N°2, Shijiasuhuang N°3, Baoding N°9 (Hebei), Jinan N°7 (Shandong), Zaoguang
N°8 (Shandong), Tangshan N°10 (Hebei), Linyi N°14 (Shandong), Zibo N°15
(Shandong), Nanjing N°17 (Jiangsu), Beijing N°21 were the most polluted cities with monthly AQI average > 120, almost no day with AQI<50 and about 70 days on 90 calendar days (80%) with AQI>100.</span><br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BWgi0bEs8Ns/U8y_cpnHn7I/AAAAAAAABhM/NXztTdK8fME/s1600/AFW34-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BWgi0bEs8Ns/U8y_cpnHn7I/AAAAAAAABhM/NXztTdK8fME/s1600/AFW34-1.png" height="556" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> : The first quintile of the Air pollution
Ranking of 190 main cities</span></span></h4>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></h4>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span><b style="text-align: center;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Q2-2014 most important pollutants</span></b></span></h3>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As during Q1-2014 the
leading pollutants </span></span><span style="font-size: small;">for the AQI determination</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> were mostly PM2.5 or sometime PM10.</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The O3 pollution had
shown an increase of more than 60% in Q2 over Q1: with O3 being the leading
pollutant in some cities such as Rongshen, Wendeng & Weihai (Shandong),
Lhasa (Tibet), Zhangjiakou (Hunan), Zhoushan (Zeijiang) or Shanwei (Guangdong).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">The test made on the various
pollutants’ sub indexes is showing some weird discrepancies such as Korla in
April 2014 where AQI=245.93 with PM10 leading pollutant concentration value
being 621</span>μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3 (see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201404.html">MEP updatedin 1 May 2014</a></span><span lang="EN-US">) or even in May 2014 where AQI=234.06 with PM10 leading pollutant
being 386</span>μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3 (see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201405.html">MEP updated 1 June 2014</a> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">).</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="text-align: left;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eUWL13q1kDg/U8zagLGdAuI/AAAAAAAABhw/MipzlfuwIuE/s1600/AFW34-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eUWL13q1kDg/U8zagLGdAuI/AAAAAAAABhw/MipzlfuwIuE/s1600/AFW34-4.png" height="346" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption"><h4 style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Pollutants’s population weighted averaged value in Q1 and Q2 – evolution in %</span></span></h4>
<div style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Most polluted urban areas</span></span></b></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">During Q2-2014 the core area of urban air pollution as compared to Q1-2014 (see my blog dated 26 May 2014) is less
extended and more North- Southwest oriented with strong pollution in the
following 8 Provinces or Municipalities: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222;">Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui,</span><span lang="EN-US"> Henan & </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Hubei.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h3 style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px; text-align: justify;">
<b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></b></h3>
<div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RMI-MBmne5Q/U8zAvsU-03I/AAAAAAAABhg/yTUxp6aO0Cc/s1600/AFW34-7+-+Copie.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RMI-MBmne5Q/U8zAvsU-03I/AAAAAAAABhg/yTUxp6aO0Cc/s1600/AFW34-7+-+Copie.png" height="572" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Zooming of Q2-2014 bubble map of China’s Air Pollution showing the</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">core area of urban air pollution</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<h3 style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px; text-align: justify;">
<b style="text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Overall situation during the first 6 months of 2014</span></span></b></h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The Provinces Air Pollution ranking over the combined first 6 months of 2014 is presented in Figure 4 hereafter.</span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US"></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The most
remarkable aspect is the steady weight of Hebei, Hubei, Beijing and Tianjin in the
Air Pollution ranking of provinces and municipalities throughout Q1 and Q2.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Shaanxi (strong in Q1), Henan (Q1), Sichuan (Q1), Xinjiang (Q2) and Ganzu (Q2) provinces contributions are more fluctuating over the quarterly periods. </span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vQTSG9lTzg0/U8zcjMiebfI/AAAAAAAABh8/TBuDyjM2rRI/s1600/AFW34-11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vQTSG9lTzg0/U8zcjMiebfI/AAAAAAAABh8/TBuDyjM2rRI/s1600/AFW34-11.png" height="590" width="640" /></a></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
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ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-27593078978661250782014-05-28T03:35:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:45:13.881-07:00Bubble pie map of daily AQI over main Chinese cities during 1st quarter 2014<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: small;">China </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">bubble pie map of </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">daily AQI showing pollution over main cities during Q1- 2014</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">In addition to our previous post, the above chart is showing that in average the days where air quality was good (AQI < 50) have been very limited over main chinese cities during the first quarter. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">This ranking covers the 190 largest cities in China, about 416 Mil people, accounting
for about 63% of the urban population.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"> Averaged over the urban population and during Q1-2014 period of 90 days, the daily AQI repartition had been the following: </span></div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">8 days /90 days or only 9% of total days had AQI<50</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">37 days /90 days or 41% had 50<AQI <100</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">45 days or 50% had AQI>100</span></li>
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<span lang="EN-US">The area
where the most polluted cities were located is shown in Figure 1 below. In this
vast swath of land straddling the Northern and the Middle zones, urban
citizens have seen virtually no days with AQI <50 during Q1 2014, apart Chongqing
and Beijing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 1: </span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: small; font-weight: bolder; line-height: 16.100000381469727px;">China bubble pie of daily AQI zooming the </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Beijing- Wuhan- Chengdu- Xi'an semicircular area where are located the 30 most polluted cities</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The Southern coastal area presented in Figure 2 hereunder had shown over Q1-2014 relatively very few days where AQI was >100, but the good days with AQI<50 were gen</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">erally very limited and the air was mostly moderately polluted (50<AQI<100).</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 16.100000381469727px;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 2: China bubble pie of daily AQI zooming the Southern Chongqing-Shanghai-Guangzhou triangle of relative moderate pollution</span></span></h4>
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The Southernmost cities of Haikou and Sanya located in Hainan "beautiful island" , were the only main cities with a majority of good air quality days: Haikou and Sanya had respectively 52 and 61 good days (AQI<50) on the 90 days period.</div>
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<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-31873047035099594862014-05-26T03:29:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:45:35.712-07:00Air Quality Index ranking of China’s main cities during the 1st quarter of 2014 <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;">AQI bubble map
is showing during Q1-2014 a concentration of very polluted or unhealthy urban
pollution in Hebei (Shijiazhuang,
Baoding) , Shandong (Zibo), Hubei (Wuhan), Sichuan (Chengdu) and Shaanxi (Xi’an) cities</span></span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The ranking of </span></span>the Chinese 190 main cities is <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">issued each month by the China’s Ministry
of Environmental Protection (see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201403http">MEP link</a>). I</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">t covers an overall population about 416 Mil people in main cities totaling around 63% of Chinese urban population.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Main results from </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">AQI issued by MEP over Q1-2014</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Based on the methodology described in my previous posts, the population weighted average AQI overall value over these 190 cities was AQI= 119 during Q1-2014 (90 days).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span>population-weighted average <span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">daily </span></span>AQI <span style="font-family: inherit;">repartition </span>over these cities<span style="font-family: inherit;"> - during the period- was the
following </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">:</span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">8 days /90 days or 9% where AQI
< 50<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">-
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">37 days/90 days or 41% where 50< AQI <100 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">-
</span><!--[endif]--><span lang="EN-US">45 days/90 days or 50% where AQI >100<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we arrange these 90 population-weighted averages according to their decreasing daily AQI values, the last day of the first and worst decile-
assuming a lognormal distribution is valid - should be close to 150.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We know that EU is requesting a maximum value of 50 for the last day of the first decile. </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">In average over a year an exposure to AQI
>5O (or PM2.5>35µg/m3) during more than 36 days a year (10%) is considerated as dangerous, due to the cumulative effect -even of a small pollution -</span>on human health over a<span style="font-family: inherit;"> long period.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">U.S. appellation to
qualify the dangerousness same AQI levels in China and USA are used, these appearing to be
more pertinent that the Chine's. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">AQI ranking is addressed in decreasing order unlike the
publications from MEP. It is thus rather a "ranking" of Air Pollution
urban areas.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">We use the same color convention to represent the various AQI
levels as in our previous posts. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Nevertheless we should bear in mind that averaging tends to reduce daily or monthly average over time and cities. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">The best
indicator of Air Pollution health hazards is undoubtedly the daily value in each city. We know only AQI repartition inside three intervals: AQI <50; 50< AQI<100 and AQI >100 - although a splitting of the last interval in two would be helpful.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">A bubble map of air pollution in China is given above. It gives a good feeling of the AQI situation during Q1-2014. It is nevertheless difficult to read as urban grid is very tight in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and in coastal regions.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hoj_Jj-fz6I/U4MRAw9ixBI/AAAAAAAABaE/xx05Ls4eUv0/s1600/AFW32-1-ZOOM1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hoj_Jj-fz6I/U4MRAw9ixBI/AAAAAAAABaE/xx05Ls4eUv0/s1600/AFW32-1-ZOOM1.png" height="403" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US"> : 30 of the most Air polluted cities are located in a semicircular
area around Beijing, Tianjin, Zibo,
Wuhan, Chengdu and Xi’an<span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Zooming on the most polluted area is showing that the 30 most polluted cities were located within an semicircular area </span>(see Figure 1 above) , located between the Yangze and the Huang He rivers, <span style="font-family: inherit;">which surface is around 1,200,000 km2 or altogether: France, Germany, Netherlands, </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Belgium and Italy .</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mMzySMKcVlw/U4MStjC5H5I/AAAAAAAABaQ/uc7H_96tPLY/s1600/AFW32-1-ZOOM2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mMzySMKcVlw/U4MStjC5H5I/AAAAAAAABaQ/uc7H_96tPLY/s1600/AFW32-1-ZOOM2.png" height="400" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Figure 2: China Air Quality Index bubble zooming
the Southern Chongqing-Shanghai-Guangzhou triangle moderate pollution</span></h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 2 above is showing "unhealthy for sensitive groups" urban pollution just South to the Yangze river, becoming only moderatly polluted down to the coastal region. </span><br />
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">AQI main cities ranking over Q1-2014</span></h3>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Both following Figures 3 & 4 give the AQI ranking of the first two "quintiles" presented by MEP concerning the 76 most
polluted cities :</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">- 1<sup>st</sup> quintile: urban population
74 Mil with 38 cities all their AQI but one being either "very polluted" or
"unhealthy”, the largest cities being: Xi'an N°12 (Shaanxi), Chengdu N°24 (Sichuan) and Wuhan N°26 (Hubei) ;</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">- 2<sup>nd</sup>
quintile: urban population 81Mil with 38 cities which AQI are all “unhealthy for sensitive groups”, the largest being
Beijing N°42 ,Tianjin N°44, Harbin N°52, Nanjing N°64 (Jiangsu) and Chongqing .</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 3</span><span lang="EN-US">: First quintile of AQI ranking of
190 main cities over Q1-2014</span></span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Second quintile of</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">AQI ranking of 190 main cities over Q1-2014</span></span></h4>
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Discussion of AQI values on Q1-2014</b></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">I</span><span lang="EN-US">n general, the main pollutant was PM25
except for some few exceptions where it was PM10.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">The result for Beijing, which exhibits 14
days with AQI < 50 when in average AQI = 147 seems quite unlikely, while similar cities for their AQI level - such as Tianjin- are all showing 0-5 days for this
indicator.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Furthermore, comparing the
sub-AQI corresponding to the value of the monthly concentration of PM2.5, to the
monthly value of the AQI (see my last post) it is possible to highlight some possible errors. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">This test establishes that 99 values out from 570 (190
cities x 3 months) or 17% </span><span lang="EN-US">might be
inaccurate with an AQI value underestimated in the following cases: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Ma'anshan- in Mar 2014-(underestimation: 24.1 </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">/AQI=108.4); Zhangqiu-Feb- (19.3/149.2);
Langfang- Feb- (14.6/195.3); Ma'anshan-Jan- (12.7/187.78);
Beijing- Feb- (12.0/183.7); Handan- Feb- (10.8/210.2);Tangshan-Feb-(9.71/190.3); Xianyang-Jan- (9.58/194.4); Baoji- Jan-(9.21/173.7)…Xi'an-Jan- (8.48/185.8)…Zibo-Jan- (7.09/185.8); Shijiazhuang-Feb (7/266.0)…etc</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">As the concerned cities are mosly classified on a monthly basis either "Unhealthy" or "Very Polluted", such AQI underestimation could rock the ranking list and expend the number of "Unhealthy " or"Very Polluted" cities on a quarterly basis, such as Beijing for instance. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-59682937720396837482014-04-12T05:05:00.002-07:002014-10-03T01:45:55.502-07:00Last Chinese Air Quality Index (AQI) showing persistent Air pollution during Jan & Feb 2014 with high level of Particulate Matter pollution in Northern regions<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o0gUCEwVU3w/U0knX9QUQoI/AAAAAAAABWQ/xJaaRiLuVYg/s1600/AFW31-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-o0gUCEwVU3w/U0knX9QUQoI/AAAAAAAABWQ/xJaaRiLuVYg/s1600/AFW31-1.jpg" height="400" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14.545454025268555px; line-height: 16.866666793823242px;">Shijiazhuang is struggling to contain a dense smog because of its heavy reliance on coal; both Xingtai and Shijiazhuang cities- located in Hebei 300 km South of Beijing- had the worst AQI throughout China during Jan & Feb 2014</span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span><i style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"> From CCTV reporter Ning Hong</i><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"> - </span><i style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">16 Oct 2013</i></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In the first two
months of 2014, the 190 most important Chinese cities sample were recorded with
an </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Air Quality Index</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> (AQI) value around 130. Most
affected areas were the industrial North region including Harbin, Beijing and
Tianjin.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Particulate Matters (PM2.5 and
PM10) were almost always the principal pollutants determining the value of Air
Quality Index, PM2.5 with 68% of the city-month records being mostly concerned
with PM10 only 29%. As a consequence, the PM2.5 inclusion in the new AQI definition
has dramatically changed the Air quality perception. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">During Jan. & Feb.
2014, on a 59 days' period: the 76 most polluted cities (40% of 190 sample) had
largely exceeded the yearly budget of "exceedance" days (with
AQI>50 or PM2.5> 35</span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">) normally
permitted in the WHO, the US or the UE for instance. <br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This means that based on
the first two months and for 40% of </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">major urban areas</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> China is more or less six times more polluted as compared with Western
standards! </span></span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt;">The new Air Quality Index publications, concerning China’s major urban
areas, are being speeding up gradually by the Ministry of Environmental
Protection (MEP).</span><br />
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">However every month already published AQIs </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;"></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">are modified
retrospectively due to errors found after publication.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; font-family: inherit; line-height: 14.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But we
believe that many errors are still present: from a test performed by computing
the highest values </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">of all pollutant sub-indices,
we found that at least 181 cities indications already published - or 16% of all
published city-month records- should still be corrected, including: Harbin (Oct
& Dec), Xi’an (Dec & Jan) and Beijing (Feb)</span>.</span></div>
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<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">What are the main information resulting from last AQI data released on
the most important Chinese cities?</span></span></b></h3>
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<br /></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">After 76 cities recorded from May 2013, then 144 cities from Sep 2013,
we have now 190 cities- all among the largest urban areas- recorded from Jan
2014 with the new Air Quality Index (AQI) format that incorporates the finest
Particulate Matter (PM2.5).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As explained in our previous blog dated 12 Nov 2013, we may establish
average per capita pollution over specific region</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">or on an overall national basis only after urban population weighting
the results of each city inside the concerned area.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In the first two months Jan. & Feb. 2014, the population weighted average
AQI value is 129 for an overall urban population of 408 Mil of the 190 concerned
cities.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt; text-align: justify;">The most
affected areas were the industrial North regions including Harbin, Beijing and
Tianjin. The list of the top 76 most polluted cities is given in the following
Figures 1 (a) and 1 (b):</span><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt; text-align: justify;">
</span><br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fYjS2zVk5ik/U0y47ppo-xI/AAAAAAAABY4/OqRu_DL4ReA/s1600/AFW31-21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fYjS2zVk5ik/U0y47ppo-xI/AAAAAAAABY4/OqRu_DL4ReA/s1600/AFW31-21.png" height="640" width="334" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-weight: bold;">Figure 1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-weight: bold;"> (a)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-weight: bold;">: </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">38 most polluted cities or f</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">irst quintile (1/5 of the 190 cities) from mean Jan & Feb 2014</span></h4>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wgzKKtf2hHU/U0y47mELd3I/AAAAAAAABY8/MeknmTLF4_8/s1600/AFW31-22.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wgzKKtf2hHU/U0y47mELd3I/AAAAAAAABY8/MeknmTLF4_8/s1600/AFW31-22.png" height="640" width="358" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US">Figure 1 (b): 39th to 76th most polluted cities or second </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"> quintile </span>from mean Jan & Feb 2014</h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The first 40% - or 2
fifths (quintile) - of the ranked 190 Chinese cities are located mostly in the
Northern (60%) or in the Middle (37%) regions.<br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">These cities were classified
with an Air Quality Index- following US denominations- either "Very polluted"
(11 cities including Xi'an), or "Unhealthy" (40 cities including Beijing
and Harbin), or "Unhealthy for sensitive groups" (25 cities including
Chongqing).<br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt; line-height: 115%;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Xi'an (ranking n°11), Harbin
(n°40), Beijing (n°45), Chongqing (n°53), Tianjin (n°56) and Nanjing (n°64) are
among the greatest Chinese cities but are also those which air is the most
heavily polluted by Particulate Matter. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The G06 Northern region (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Provinces & Dalian
City) plus being the People's Republic of China capital location were
certainly the most polluted during the period. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">With 10 cities ranking respectively n°1 (Xingtai), n°2
(Shijiazhuang), n°3 (Baoding), n°5 (Handan), n°7 (Hengshui), n°16 (Langfang),
n°25 (Tangshan), n°37 (Cangzhou), n°45 (Beijing) & n°56
(Tianjin) and a population totaling 48 Mil: the population-weighted AQI value is
around 162 with only 4.8 "good days" over the
59 days period. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Most of the pollution is coming from the surrounding Hebei Province
which </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #252525; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">burned over 300 million tons of coal in 2011, more
than all of Germany!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The number of "good " days -
where AQI <50 or PM2.5 <35</span><span style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;">g/m3- during Jan. & Feb. 2014 where nil for Xi'an, Harbin and
Tianjin, 3 for Chongking and Nanjing and -quite unexpectedly- 10 for Beijing
with 5 in Jan. and again 5 in Feb.. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As a result, after over
the first two months of the year all these cities have largely exceeded the
yearly budget of "exceedance" days such as defined for
instance in the UE . This means that based on these first two months China
is more of less six times more polluted following normal western standards.</span></span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Oaud78xlL9w/U0yn0kfx9-I/AAAAAAAABYQ/JmVBwN4bHug/s1600/AFW31-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Oaud78xlL9w/U0yn0kfx9-I/AAAAAAAABYQ/JmVBwN4bHug/s1600/AFW31-3.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US">Figure 2</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Most polluted 78 Chinese Cities from mean Jan & Feb 2014</span></h4>
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<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">What are the most important pollutants concerned?</span></span></b></h3>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For a specific day the AQI value is the value reached by the highest
underlying sub-index of each of the 7 main different pollutants recorded:
PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, SO2 , O3-1h & O3-8h.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Since the publication of the new monthly AQI values, we have 1102
city-month records of monthly average AQI and associated pollutants over a
period of 10 months from May 2013 to Feb 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">It is possible to compute monthly sub index values</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: transparent; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">from each monthly recorded pollutant average concentration. In the vast
majority of city-month records, PM2.5 or PM10 were almost always the
most important pollutants as defined by the value of the various sub-index (see
Figures 3 (a) & 3 (b)).</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Under this approach we found that PM2.5 was the most important pollutant
for 750 city-month records (68%), then PM10 for 325 (29%), NO2 for 17 (1.5%)
and O3-8h then SO2 respectively for 6 (0.5%) & 3 (0.25%) city-month records
only.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ErKhp29awtY/U0knd59FVbI/AAAAAAAABXg/Z3rixYoRMag/s1600/AFW31-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ErKhp29awtY/U0knd59FVbI/AAAAAAAABXg/Z3rixYoRMag/s1600/AFW31-7.png" height="640" width="602" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Figure 3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> (a) : Beijing, Canton and
Chongqing 10 month records from May 2013 to Feb 2014 </span></h4>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vUXZBrMR9ew/U0knewkSlHI/AAAAAAAABXw/XP9UQIjwDko/s1600/AFW31-8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vUXZBrMR9ew/U0knewkSlHI/AAAAAAAABXw/XP9UQIjwDko/s1600/AFW31-8.png" height="640" width="566" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure 3 (b) : Beijing, Canton and Chongqing 10 month sub indexes
as derived from May 2013 to Feb 2014 detailed AQI and associated pollutant
records</span></h4>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As explained above, each new AQI monthly
issue from China’s MEP might is bringing corrections to several of the preceding
issued city-month records.<br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">And nevertheless lots of mistakes are
still uncorrected! We found that for 181 city-month records, the value of
the month was less than the value of the sub highest index computed from the
monthly average of the corresponding pollution (See Harbin in Oct. and Dec., in
Beijing in Feb in following Figure 4).<br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 10.5pt;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">These are certainly errors since the
highest sub index including the daily volatility during the specific month is
certainly higher than the sub index without volatility! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
181 errors on 1102 values is a level of mistakes around 16% with lots of errors
still concerning Oct., Nov. and Dec..</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZKoVjX3LEpc/U0knZuZLM3I/AAAAAAAABWw/B5j9Jc0-iSs/s1600/AFW31-13.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZKoVjX3LEpc/U0knZuZLM3I/AAAAAAAABWw/B5j9Jc0-iSs/s1600/AFW31-13.png" height="640" width="360" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;">Figure</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> 4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> : 40 among 181 errors found
in the last AQI issues where the sub index is higher than the recorded
AQI</span></h4>
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<b style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-large;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></b></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span lang="EN-US">These values </span></b><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span lang="EN-US"></span></b><b style="font-size: x-large;"><span lang="EN-US">are average
monthly which might hide severe daily pollution</span></b></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As we have not for each city the detailed daily value of each of 7 main
pollutants we can only assess the most severe daily pollution from the monthly
average issued each month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HNmLsqdjKTo/U0yn1-CtVNI/AAAAAAAABYY/zN_CcgGC3ag/s1600/AFW31-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HNmLsqdjKTo/U0yn1-CtVNI/AAAAAAAABYY/zN_CcgGC3ag/s1600/AFW31-4.png" height="476" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 5</span><span lang="EN-US">: Existing correlation between monthly AQI or PM2.5 sub-index and PM2.5 monthly average PM2.5 for all 1102 city-month records; a large number of PM2.5 sub-index higher than that recorded AQI necessarily corresponds to an error</span></span></h4>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wRljlBf3nWI/U0yn2Hetp0I/AAAAAAAABYc/7B9csw-pRF4/s1600/AFW31-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wRljlBf3nWI/U0yn2Hetp0I/AAAAAAAABYc/7B9csw-pRF4/s1600/AFW31-5.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 6</span><span lang="EN-US">: Correlation between overall AQI and calculated monthly Sub Index PM10 for all monthly-cities 1102 records</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But in each of the
1102 city-month records we have the number of days during the month period
where AQI was "good" (AQI<50) which permits an estimation of the
size of population exposed over long periods to unhealthy air quality.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hsTJO6X8BcA/U0yn21M_lMI/AAAAAAAABYs/erg63Rl0ASQ/s1600/AFW31-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hsTJO6X8BcA/U0yn21M_lMI/AAAAAAAABYs/erg63Rl0ASQ/s1600/AFW31-6.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Figure 7: Number of days where AQIcity is "good" or <50</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The Figure 7 above is
showing that "good air quality" had only 22-29 "good" days
during each last month; when "moderate air quality" had only 5-10
"good days"; and "unhealthy air quality" only 1-5 "good
days"! </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
These performances are more than extremely </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">exceeding </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">the
health limitations put forward by WHO, EU or US regulations which are -in the
EU- 90.4 percentiles with PM10 < 50</span><span style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">g/m3 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> or less
than 35 exceedance days (9.6%) over one year and - in the US- 98
percentiles for PM2.5 < 35 </span><span style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">g/m3 or less than 7 exceedance days (2%) over one year (see my last
blog dated 22 Sep 2013)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
During Jan & Feb 2014 the population-weighted "good days"
(AQI<50 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">or PM2.5<35</span><span style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">g/m3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">) were
around 5.5 days for all the 190 cities. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
This mean as exposed above that on the overall 190 cities during Jan. to Feb.
2014 there were 53 (=59-5.5) unhealthy days (with AQI>50 or PM2.5>35</span><span style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">g/m3)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> or 1.5 times the 35 days exceedance yearly
period accepted by WHO, the US or the UE!</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
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<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Finally is it possible to know whether air
pollution is on an upward or downward trend during the last years?</span></span></b></h4>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">As we did in our last post dated
10 Nov. 2013, we may use the benchmark of air pollution introduced by W. J.
Qu et al. in their 2010 study "Spatial distribution and inter-annual
variation of PM10 concentrations over 86 Chinese cities" as
established from Jun. 2000 to Feb. 2007 daily API data available.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As during
that period the finest particulate matter were not recorded, we might only
compare PM10 pollution using this 86 cities bench mark which are the biggest
cities inside the 190 cities recorded by MEP. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.7pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">On the overall 86 cities the total population weighted PM10 is +2.17%
higher than the 2000-2007 bench-mark (see Figure 8 and 9 below):</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 8pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bzzf75sw-hk/U0knYCn3lYI/AAAAAAAABWY/IkfxhkxDBKE/s1600/AFW31-10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bzzf75sw-hk/U0knYCn3lYI/AAAAAAAABWY/IkfxhkxDBKE/s1600/AFW31-10.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
Figure 8: Monotonous curve comparison with the bench-mark</h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-63n3GkztZA8/U05ZQoNOZ7I/AAAAAAAABZQ/e3jRjk-myn0/s1600/AFW31-11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-63n3GkztZA8/U05ZQoNOZ7I/AAAAAAAABZQ/e3jRjk-myn0/s1600/AFW31-11.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16.866666793823242px;">Figure 9</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16.866666793823242px;"> : Comparison for 2000-2007 86 cities benchmark ; in blue the 2000-2007 population weighted 10 months PM10 value ; in red the last 10 month values from same 86 cities recorded completed progressively with small missing cities deducted from previous seasonal factors; for each cluster the number of cities and the overall population are given</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt 3.05pt; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.7pt; text-align: justify;">On the 16
city’s clusters (see Figure 9 & 10):</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">There are reduction for Northern G01
(-21.76%); Northern G03 (-23.35%); Northern G05 (-17.87%); Southern G12
(-13%) & West GX1 (-10.14%). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br />
But also we note a huge increase for Northern G07 (37%); Northern G08 (34%);
Southern G13 (30%); Northern G02 (11%) & Middle G11 (8.8%). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mO7jxlG-yC4/U0knZEVMqCI/AAAAAAAABWk/_EDS7Kr5RW0/s1600/AFW31-12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mO7jxlG-yC4/U0knZEVMqCI/AAAAAAAABWk/_EDS7Kr5RW0/s1600/AFW31-12.png" height="596" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US">Figure 10</span><span lang="EN-US"> :
The 16 clusters of correlated cities used as a bench-mark </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-55403633014420320532014-03-23T03:27:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:46:55.208-07:002014 Environment Performance Index (EPI) analysis is showing a 4% worldwide average reduction over 2012 which means EPI Yale experts are more pessimistic especially concerning urgent actions on water issues <div class="MsoPlainText">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tYb6KrTLz6g/Uy-NNkLUYxI/AAAAAAAABV4/Tugl4X9V5Z0/s1600/AFW30-10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tYb6KrTLz6g/Uy-NNkLUYxI/AAAAAAAABV4/Tugl4X9V5Z0/s1600/AFW30-10.jpg" height="427" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3 style="direction: ltr; language: fr; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-top: 0pt; mso-line-break-override: none; punctuation-wrap: hanging; text-align: left; unicode-bidi: embed; word-break: normal;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: small;">Figure 1: Water scarcity has become one of our greatest
challenges. In less than twenty years, nearly two billion people could face
water shortages.</span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="unephttp://www.unep.org/NewsCentre/multimedia/default.asp?ct=photos&gal=wed06deserts"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">© </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Binh</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> Thuan, </span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Thien</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> Anh Huynh / Vietnam / </span></a></div>
</span></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Yale last <a href="http://epi.yale.edu/epi">2014 EnvironmentPerformance Index (EPI) </a>is showing deterioration from the assessment made in
2012: the worldwide ranking based on population weighted index over all the ranked
countries is around 45.7 in 2014 after 47.5 in 2012 which is a reduction of 4%
over the last two years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">There had been modifications
in the methodology and some additional countries missing in 2012 are now included
in 2014’s assessment. Altogether the general situation of Environment
Performance is looking bleaker than it was 2 years ago mostly because of water issues. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Water scarcity has become one of the greatest challenge: nowadays about 1.6 Mil people, or a quarter of the world's population, live in countries that have insufficient water supplis (see Figure 1 above). </span></span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">As illustrated by the
concept of “Tragedy of the Commons”, the "Commons" which include the atmosphere, oceans,
rivers, forests, fish stocks and national parks are shared resource, that should be exploited in connection with sustainable development, meshing
economic growth and environmental protection, as well as in the debate
over global warming. The tragedy of
the commons is an example of emergent behavior, the outcome of individual
interactions in a complex system which are provoking huge negative "externalities" that nobody is prepared to pay.</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we want to restore
and protect the environment against pollution and seamlessly share the burden
of efforts among the various stakeholders, it is necessary to define new
indicators and tools. EPI ranking is essential to detect in which countries
further actions are needed to avoid disastrous environmental issues.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Starting from year
2002, <a href="http://epi.yale.edu/epi/country-rankings">Yale 2014 country EPI ranking</a>s along with others ranking from OECD or Siemens (<a href="http://www.siemens.com/press/pool/de/events/2011/corporate/2011-02-asia/asian-gci-report-e.pdf">Asian Green City index</a>)
are necessary steps to discuss and address these issues.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">EPI
methodology adjustments in 2014</span></span></b></span></h3>
<div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">My blog dated 6 Nov
2012 has presented the <a href="http://asianfootprint.blogspot.com/2012/11/yale-2012-environment-pollution-index.html">EPI 2012 methodology</a> and main results in Asia Pacific. The
last EPI 2012 issue’s overall architecture is respected, with 4 levels of
indexes or indicators: <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">(1) Global EPI; <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">(2) Environmental
Health index EH, Environmental Vitality EV; <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">(3) 9 sub indexes: 3
for EH and 6 for EV </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">(4) Twenty indicators
with 1, 2 or 4 depending of the sub indexes</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span>
</span><br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">More countries are now
in the scope with a total of 178 EPI ranked in 2014 against 132 in 2012. The 2014
EPI evaluates 178 countries, with 46 new additions, in large part, from
Small-Island Developing States and sub-Saharan Africa. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The overall
population ranked is now 6900 Mil in 2014 against 6550 Mil in 2012, which is an
increase of 5% over 2012. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Most of the new
countries ranked are low Income (18), lower middle income (13) or upper middle
income countries (10). There are only 5 high income countries: Bahamas,
Barbados, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahrain and Equatorial Guinea. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The overall method
has been adjusted (see Figure 2) in order to address some shortcoming, notably
with the following sub indexes or indicators:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Drinking,
sanitation and water resources weighting are increased from 16% to 28% (+12%) with
a new wastewater treatment indicator, which is a major driver of ecosystem
water quality;<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Forest
and Fisheries are more or less the same;<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Air
pollution: SO2 pollution has been deleted to use only PM2.5 particulate pollution:
Air quality weighting is reduced from 16.26% to 13.32% (-2.94%);<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Health
impact (child mortality) is reduced from 15% to 13.33% (-1.67%);<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Agriculture
is reduced from 5.83% to 3% (-2.83%);<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Biodiversity
is reduced from 17% to 15% (-2%);<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">-<span style="font-size: 7pt;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Climate
and energy is also reduced from 17.52% to 15% (-2.52%) with a <a href="http://epi.yale.edu/files/climate_indicators_weightings.xls">new index calculation</a> that is dependant on the country's economic development level. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="paragraphe">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="paragraphe">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">The water increased weighting in EPI is mirroring the water situation
following a recent <a href="http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml">UN report</a> asking urgent actions: water demand is likely to
increase by 55% by 2050, with 40% of population living in areas of
"severe" water stress. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Asia will be the biggest hotspot over water
extraction, where water sources straddle national borders. "Areas of
conflict include the Aral Sea and the Ganges-Brahmaputra River, Indus River and
Mekong River basins".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Apart from this
adjustment for water, the overall architecture is more or less the same and
past comparisons are still very useful.</span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is true that it
should be necessary – as explained by EPI Yale- to “back-cast” the new definition
and weighting of indicators to know exactly the overall variation from the past.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">However as explained
by EPI Yale not every indicator in the 2014 EPI lends itself to back-cast or
trend calculations. But more importantly we can say that the expert
judgment EPI Yale is issuing now in 2014 is more pessimistic as compared to the
2012 assessment meanly because of water urgent issues to be addressed.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NTjh7G-F2fA/Uy60AxfGcGI/AAAAAAAABU4/VS3sIHzE6L8/s1600/AFW30-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NTjh7G-F2fA/Uy60AxfGcGI/AAAAAAAABU4/VS3sIHzE6L8/s1600/AFW30-1.png" height="482" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure 2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> : EPI 2014
coefficients values and EPI 2012 comparison</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Main results over the countries</span></span></b></h3>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">If we compare the new
EPIs and their variations over 2012-2014 – with all precautions discussed above- the
following Figure 3 is showing the last two year trend over the 132 countries already ranked in 2012:</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">73 countries
have increased their current EPI scores over the last two years : mostly higher
income and upper middle income;<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText" style="margin-left: 36.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">- </span><span lang="EN-US">59 countries
have decreased their current EPI scores over the last two years: mostly lower income
and lower middle income. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Large high income
countries are progressing: Spain: +32%; Germany: +20%; USA: +20%; Japan: +14%;
UK: +12%.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But heavily populated
and low income countries are showing a strong reduction: Bangladesh: -39%;;
Philippines: -23%; Indonesia: -15%; India: -14%; Brazil: -13%.</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1mHMM5CbAXU/Uy60BqyruvI/AAAAAAAABU8/ZuVf64KIT3s/s1600/AFW30-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1mHMM5CbAXU/Uy60BqyruvI/AAAAAAAABU8/ZuVf64KIT3s/s1600/AFW30-2.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure 3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> : EPI 2014
and trend 2012-2014 over various income-groups; note that only EPI 2012 ranked
countries are presented. The above figure is showing: 32 high income OCDE
countries 31 with increasing & 1 with decreasing (Taiwan) trends; 15 high-income
non OCDE countries: 11 with increasing & 4 with decreasing (Croatia,
Uruguay, Lithuania & Latvia) trends; 39 upper middle income countries: 24
with increasing & 15 with decreasing trends; 30 lower middle income
countries: 7 with increasing & 23 with decreasing trends; 16 lower income
countries all with decreasing trends</span></span></h4>
<div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">If we want to know the overall result over the planet, Yale EPI ranking does not give any clue and we have to make further
assumptions as explained hereafter.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
<br />
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Relationship between EPI and income per capita</span></span></b></span></h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">If we plot each
country EPI against its respective income per capita with a logarithm scale for
both EPI and income, we have a much better view over the small EPI countries.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">We see- which is an
amazing outcome- that all countries are more or less aligned in their average line
that best fits the showed income level EPI points with the method of least
squares (see table 4).</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: windowtext; font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">Nevertheless there is
a slight tendency for high income countries to be above the average line.</span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We see also that
EPI’s volatility around the average line is increasing when income level
decrease. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span>
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</span>
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</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-onE-uj_zp9I/Uy60CSKlI1I/AAAAAAAABVE/BV8SWCtaSvQ/s1600/AFW30-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-onE-uj_zp9I/Uy60CSKlI1I/AAAAAAAABVE/BV8SWCtaSvQ/s1600/AFW30-3.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure 4</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;"> : Curve of
2014 EPI scores plotted against GDP per capita with logarithm scales</span> </span></h4>
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small; text-align: left;"><br /></span></h4>
<h4>
</h4>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Another aspect is to show among a group of homogenous countries an average EPI value and which countries are doing well or bad at their income level.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">For instance (see following
Figures 5, 6 & 7) :</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_dNDLXIcwvA/Uy60C_SOv8I/AAAAAAAABVU/bNKLnypVSFw/s1600/AFW30-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-_dNDLXIcwvA/Uy60C_SOv8I/AAAAAAAABVU/bNKLnypVSFw/s1600/AFW30-5.png" height="460" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 5</span><span lang="EN-US"> :
Curve of High Income countries 2014</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext;"> EPI scores plotted against GDP per capita with
logarithm scales; in high income OCDE countries (red signs): USA, Belgium,
Taiwan, South Korea and Israel have bad EPI as compared with the average line;
France, Canada & Japan are a better EPI but still down the line; Switzerland,
Luxembourg, Australia & Germany are much above the line; in high income
non-OCDE countries(yellow signs): Equatorial Guinea; Bahamas and Barbados are
far down the average line; Qatar, Bahrain & Trinidad & Tobago are not
doing well also when compared with the average line; Singapore and United Arab
Emirates are much above the average line</span></span></h4>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0CouxNPqzw/Uy60DKwXTWI/AAAAAAAABVY/C6zZNxsqKmc/s1600/AFW30-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y0CouxNPqzw/Uy60DKwXTWI/AAAAAAAABVY/C6zZNxsqKmc/s1600/AFW30-6.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure 6</span><span lang="EN-US">: Curve
of upper middle income countries 2014</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: small;"> EPI scores plotted against GDP per capita with
logarithm scales; Grenada, Angola & Irak are down from the average line; China
is slightly down; Hungaria, Serbia and Belarus
are well above the line</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OtTkY62Raw4/Uy60DiY1k1I/AAAAAAAABVc/oymz72njzOo/s1600/AFW30-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OtTkY62Raw4/Uy60DiY1k1I/AAAAAAAABVc/oymz72njzOo/s1600/AFW30-7.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;">Figure 7</span></b></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> : Curve of lower middle income and lower income countries 2014
EPI scores plotted against GDP per capita with logarithm scales; in lower
middle income countries: Mali, Sierra Leone and Afghanistan are down the
average line; Zimbabwe is well above the average line; in lower middle income
countries (blue signs) Lesotho & Sudan are down from the average lines;
India is less down the line; Armenia and Egypt are well above the average line</span><span style="font-size: 9pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></h4>
<div>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Can we define 2013 EPI average value for all the ranked countries? What is the overall evolution over 2012?</span></span></b></h3>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">The country's EPI is an </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">averaged value</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> of each part or unit EPI of the country. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">When comparing relative situation of
countries such as Switzerland or Singapore (5-7 Mil) with say USA (313 Mil), Indonesia
(246 Mil), India (1236 Mil) or China (1350 Mil), we need to factor EPI by the
population.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">So there is a
relationship between EPI and population. This means that to know the overall
impact on the planet we need to use the EPI cumulated-weighted average (see Figure 8).</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This Figure is
showing that during the last two years the average value - or the worldwide EPI- was </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">45.7 in 2014 after </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">47.5 in 2012. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">This means that during the 2012-2014 period: EPI was in
average less than the middle value between 0 and 100.</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We see also that in
the last two years there have not been any improvement but a reduction of 3.8%: some countries have improved- mostly small
populated and high-income countries such as: Australia, Singapore or even USA- but
the reduction of the highly populated middle and low income countries is showing
a huge deterioration of the overall value. </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vta4BNQ84rI/Uy60CCDxflI/AAAAAAAABVA/ZBz0l6Jfrzg/s1600/AFW30-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Vta4BNQ84rI/Uy60CCDxflI/AAAAAAAABVA/ZBz0l6Jfrzg/s1600/AFW30-4.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure 8</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> : Population
weighted 2012 and 2014 EPI monotonous curve</span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">s</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></div>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-46020731404622040142014-01-17T04:23:00.003-08:002014-10-03T01:47:17.354-07:00The Hiatus in Global-Mean Surface Warming during the last 15 years is only a proof of internal decadal climate variability<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pyNaVIH2zQI/UtkdiOCi2sI/AAAAAAAABUM/Yvjuw2nbUfM/s1600/AFW29_13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pyNaVIH2zQI/UtkdiOCi2sI/AAAAAAAABUM/Yvjuw2nbUfM/s1600/AFW29_13.png" height="316" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure </span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span></b><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"> Maps of Arctic
ice concentration trends (1979–2012) in summer (left) and autumn (right)
(updated from Comiso, 2010 and IPCC AR5)<o:p></o:p></span></b></h4>
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<div class="MsoCaption">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">I</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">n the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5) dated Sep. 2013, the observed
global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is showing a much smaller increasing trend over the last 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in
Northern hemisphere during winter time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This had been highlighted by the climate warming denier's community as a proof
that the Global Warming issues were biased by Climate scientists.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The decade of the 2000s had nevertheless
been the warmest in the record of GMST. As analysed by<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13"><span lang="EN-US">NOAA</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, t</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">he top five warmest years since record
began in 1880 were 2010 (0.66°C<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>above
the 20</span><sup style="outline: 0px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; padding: 0cm;">th</span></sup><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> century average)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, 2005 (0.65°C),1998
(0.63°C), followed by<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>2013
tied with 2003 as the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; padding: 0cm;">fourth warmest year<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #444444; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> globally
(0.62°C)<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">S</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">ummer time Artic sea-ice volume- which trends are spoted in Figure 1 above- had a dramatic 75% decrease since 1979 particularly during the last 2 decades
(Chapter 4- Figure 4.2 AR5 report). </span></div>
</div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Additionally, during this 15-year hiatus there is a discrepancy between
the observed data and the forward model applied to past and observational data,
which needs to be assessed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-size: large;">Temperature anomalies are increasing by step and rise</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Contrary to "climate sceptics", we believe that this is evidence that climate statistics
are properly grounded and that some stakeholders like to fiddle with the
fundamental distinction to be done between long-term trends (Global warming)
and short-term trends (variability).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half
of the trend over 1951–2012. For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04°C per
decade over 1998–2012, compared to 0.11°C per decade over 1951–2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Temperature anomalies are increasing by steps with moderate evolutions
followed by deep rise, while other indicators as Sea level, Arctic sea-ice
extent or Glacier mass balance have more steady trends. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As concerns GMST, during the last
1860-2012 period, we find successively: 1860-1909 (50yrs) ~flat; 1910-1944
(35yrs) ~rise; 1945-1974 (30yrs) ~flat; 1975-1997 (23yrs)~ rise; 1998-2012 (15
yrs) ~ flat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Climate model projections,
performed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) indicate that hiatus are relatively common and could appear in the 21st century when decadal
periods are considered. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Climate models simulations link these hiatus decades to
La Niña-like cool conditions in the equatorial Pacific. The hiatus or cooling periods
are less likely when 20 or 30 years periods are considered.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Figure </span></b><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:
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EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
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mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">: G</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">lobal
mean surface temperature (black lines) from HadCRUT4, GISTEMP, and MLOST,
compared to model simulations (CMIP3 models – thin blue lines and CMIP5 models
– thin yellow lines) with all anthropogenic and natural forcings. Global average anomalies are shown with
respect to mean surface temperature ~1900+/-20.</span></b></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So the question is to examine whether these surface temperature
developments are acceptable as a part of natural internal variability of the
climate system or is-it that the anthropogenic </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">external forcing long term </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">trends resulting from GHG accumulation are either weaker than currently estimated or dampened by other external </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">trends such as Solar variation or Aerosol accumulation </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">?</span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">The climate system</span></span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Global warming discussions are
centered on GMST for long and no doubt it is a good metric since surface
temperature record is available for most land areas since pre-industrial
period. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Communication of global warming to the public using temperature metric
is also easy. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, it has one major limitation, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">this
quantity is reflecting the heat content of only a thin layer (depth ~
50-100 meters) on the land and ocean surface and not the true heat content of the
climate system. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">thin layer
is the place of important exchange</span> with the deep ocean and the troposphere and hence is permeated by heat as well as other
quantities such as salt and CO2.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The climate system is huge including the troposphere
to an altitude of around 17 km containing 80% of its total atmospheric
mass and 99% of its water vapor and aerosols, land masses culminating in
average up to 840m above sea level and ocean covering about 71% of the
earth's surface with an average depth approximately 3500m.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As explained by IPCC AR5 report: “Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90%
of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (<i>high confidence</i>). It is
<i>virtually certain </i>that the upper ocean (0−700 m) warmed from 1971 to
2010”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While GMST and Sea level are both critical for human and animal habitat, Sea level rise is probably a more adapted metric than GMST. It integrates both the thermal expansion of the
oceans and the waters received from </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">glaciers and ice sheets </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">melting.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Global
mean sea level has risen <i>monotonically </i>by about 20 cm since 1900 and the
rate has increased: </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">“It is </span><i style="font-size: 12pt;">very
likely </i><span style="font-size: 12pt;">that the mean rate of global averaged sea level
rise was 1.7 mm/yr between 1901 and 2010, 2.0 mm/yr between 1971 and 2010
and 3.2 mm/yr between 1993 and 2010”.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">Note: In IPCC report: "v<i>irtually certain"</i> means: 99–100% probability; "v<i>ery likely"</i>: 90–100%; "l<i>ikely"</i>: 66–100%; "</span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">about as likely as not" </span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">33–66%; "<i>unlikely" </i>0–33% probability...</span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: </span><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">very high, </i><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">high, </i><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">medium, </i><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">low</i><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;"> and </span><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">very l</i><i style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">ow</i><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">All indicators of the climate system are pointing to the same direction</span></span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is clear that we are mostly concerned by Global mean surface
temperature<b> </b>of land and sea, but it
is necessary to take into account all exchanges within the climate system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">If we look at the wider picture with all the extent of the Global
climate system over the last 160 years, then we see that ultimately all
indicators are pointing in the same direction! </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Don’t forget that during the
same industrialization period world population had increase by 5, world GDP
per capita by 100 (<u><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product">Wikipedia</a></u></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">) and fossil energy consumption (coal, oil and
gas) ramped fom zero to 3000 Mil MWh (<a href="http://www.ideas21.co.za/2012/03/02/">see ideas21.co.za</a> <a href="http://www.ideas21.co.za/2012/03/02/">)</a></span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;">: Multiple complementary indicators
of a changing global climate. Each line representing an independently derived
estimate of change in the climate element.</span></h4>
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<h3>
<span style="font-size: large;">The drivers of climate internal variability</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">One method to assess internal climate variability is to use temperature estimates derived from
climate models. This was done in the IPCC last report. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The curves in the following Figure 4 show </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">for the concerned periods, </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">the probability density function
(PDF) or frequency distribution of the two random variables that are global
mean surface temperature (GMST) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) .</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">This allows - using normalized density curves - to accurately measure
the distance between climate model's best estimate and temperatures actually
observed. </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vl66vpmK6lQ/Utkdj_2p3qI/AAAAAAAABUU/TXwgmSoPFMc/s1600/AFW29_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vl66vpmK6lQ/Utkdj_2p3qI/AAAAAAAABUU/TXwgmSoPFMc/s1600/AFW29_4.png" height="528" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure
4 : </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesNewRomanPSMT;"> Top: Observed and simulated GMST
trends in ºC per decade, over the periods 1998–2012 (a),1984–1998 (b), and
1951–2012 (c). For the observations, 100
realisations of the HadCRUT4 ensemble are shown (red, hatched). Bottom: Trends
in effective radiative forcing (ERF, in W m–2 per decade) over the periods 1998–2011
(d), <a href="tel:1984%E2%80%931998" x-apple-data-detectors-result="19" x-apple-data-detectors-type="telephone" x-apple-data-detectors="true">1984–1998</a> (e), and 1951–2011 (f). The
figure shows the best estimates for the models, all CMIP5 simulation in RCP4.5
scenario: top GMST (grey, shaded).and bottom ERF (grey, shaded).<o:p></o:p></span></b></h4>
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<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies
below almost all model-simulated trends, whereas during the 15-year period
ending in 1998, they lie above 93 out of 114 modeled trends.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Over the 62-year period 1951–2012, observed and CMIP5 ensemble-mean
trend agree to within 0.02°C per decade.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.5pt;">Due
to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the
beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends:
for example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years, which begins with a
strong El Niño.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.5pt;">Models
do not reproduce this slowdown in warming because the timing of events related
to internal variability (e.g. El Nino and Pacific Decadal Oscillation) probably
could be different in models and observations and hence the way these internal
oscillations combine with those associated with anthropogenic forcing is likely
to be different.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Due to internal climate variability in any given 15-year period, the
observed GMST trend sometimes lies near one end of the PDF, an effect that had
been pronounced since GMST was influenced by a very strong El Niño event in
1998.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Natural internal climate
variability</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hiatus periods of 10–15 years can arise as a manifestation of internal
decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts
the long-term externally forced trends. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is <i>very likely </i>that the climate system, including the ocean below
700 m depth, has continued to accumulate energy over the period 1998–2010,
global-mean sea level having continued to rise during 1998–2012, at a rate only
slightly and insignificantly lower than during 1993–2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Over the 62-year period 1951–2012, observed and CMIP5 agree to within
0.02°C per decade. There is hence <i>very high confidence </i>that the CMIP5
models show long-term GMST trends consistent with observations, despite the
disagreement over the most recent 15-year period.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Overall, there is <i>medium confidence </i>only that initialization – a very strong El Niño event in 1998 for
instance- could lead to simulations of GMST during 1998– 2012 that are more
consistent with the observed trend hiatus than are the uninitialized CMIP5
historical simulations, and that the hiatus is in part a consequence of
internal variability that is predictable on the multiyear timescale.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Radiative external forced
variability</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Dampening of ERF could arise naturally from strong volcanic eruption or
downwards trend of Solar phase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The AR5 best-estimate ERF forcing trend difference between 1998–2011 and
1951–2011 thus might explain about one-half (0.04 ºC per decade) of the
observed GMST trend difference between these periods (0.06 to 0.08 ºC per
decade, depending on observational data set):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JosQ_Dr-yJE/UtkdegsNuEI/AAAAAAAABUE/64VVTw7cB9s/s1600/AFW29_15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JosQ_Dr-yJE/UtkdegsNuEI/AAAAAAAABUE/64VVTw7cB9s/s1600/AFW29_15.png" height="301" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span><span lang=EN-US>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span></span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> :
Forced GSTM response from the ERF forcing
trend</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The forcing trend reduction is primarily due to a negative forcing trend
from both volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle.
However, there is <i>low confidence </i>in quantifying the role of forcing trend
in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic
forcing trend and <i>low confidence </i>in the aerosol forcing trend.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Main conclusions</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Even with this “hiatus” in GMST trend, the decade of the 2000s has been
the warmest in the instrumental record of GMST, the highest temperature record
being either 1998 (HadCUT4) or 2005 (<a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 15.6pt;">NOAA</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The main trouble with GSMT is that
it reflects the heat content of only a thin layer (depth ~ 50-100 meters) above the land
and ocean surface and not the true heat content of the climate system: thus it is prone
to huge natural variability. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Global mean sea level has
risen <i>monotonically </i>by about 20 cm since 1900 and the rate has increased
as assessed by IPCC and Sea level rise is probably a more pertinent metric
integrating both the ocean heat content as well as the melt water in the cryosphere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Trends based on decadal year records
are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates: an example is the past 15 years beginning with
a strong El Niño. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hiatus can arise as a manifestation of internal
decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts
the long-term externally forced trend.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">The forcing reduction due to a negative forcing trend from both
volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle could explain about
one-half of the observed GMST trend difference.</span><br />
<br />
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-71391997002512855972013-12-11T03:08:00.001-08:002014-10-03T01:47:35.624-07:00New China's AQI six month readings in 2013 is showing a stabilizationof PM10 pollutant at a high level (90 µg/m3) but also an increasedpollution resulting from fine particulate PM2.5<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-X05C4eegteU/UqhA2ngYokI/AAAAAAAABRM/6nmOEgcoBok/s1600/AFW28_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-X05C4eegteU/UqhA2ngYokI/AAAAAAAABRM/6nmOEgcoBok/s400/AFW28_1.jpg" height="267" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:
"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:
"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:
"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">:</span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 18.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: +mn-cs; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: +mn-ea; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-font-kerning: 12.0pt;"> </span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Heavy smog in Harbin on Oct. 21, 2013. (<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/21/china-smog-photos-pollution_n_4137675.html">STR/AFP/GettyImages</a>)</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"></span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt; text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Winter brings
the worst air pollution to Northeast Chinese cities due to a combination of bad
weather conditions with the starting period of home and
municipal coal heating</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">. According to the China’s MEP published reading of PM2.5 - inaugurated
in May 2013- Harbin showed the first measured value of 1000µg/m3 which
is twice the maximum scale set for this type of pollutant.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">China’s
Government had long been thriving to
increase production regardless on the environment impacts. Coal according to MEP
statistics provided in 2011 around 68.4% of total energy while combustion facilities are far from respecting strict specifications for reduction of their dust, ashes and
particulate matter outputs.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But this
situation is </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">rapidly </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">changing as the population is becoming acutely aware of the
huge toll of air pollution on public health. People are asking air quality standards more in line with the best worldwide practice. They want transparency and more
reliable information to be made available to the public. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">New standard
for China AQI in 2012</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The
2007 standard concerning Air Pollution Index (API 2007) has been updated during
2012 to make it more comparable to the US AQI (see Figure 2).<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o_jAPQrHDAo/UqhBn6Gh_MI/AAAAAAAABSc/_Xrjbp2cyTk/s1600/AFW28_2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o_jAPQrHDAo/UqhBn6Gh_MI/AAAAAAAABSc/_Xrjbp2cyTk/s400/AFW28_2.png" height="302" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : New China’s Air Quality
Index <o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hiJZOXJAeo8/UqhBoO4V2MI/AAAAAAAABSg/oZwMFLJLBg8/s1600/AFW28_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hiJZOXJAeo8/UqhBoO4V2MI/AAAAAAAABSg/oZwMFLJLBg8/s640/AFW28_3.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Comparison of the
threshold pollution of the new China’s AQI with US AQI</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fine
particulate matter pollutant has been introduced and other pollutant concentration
thresholds as compared to the 2007 previous standard have been reduced (NO2,
CO) or maintained (PM10, O3-1 hour). <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we look at
the most dangerous pollutants- namely PM2.5, PM10 and O3 - when compared to the
US AQI- the Chinese pollution levels are still much more important especially for PM2.5 (see above Figure 3).
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">But more
insidiously -if the colour policy is exactely the same- the rhetoric behind the US or Chinese pollution index levels are not the
same. The US "moderate pollution" is </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">in China </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">qualified as a "good situation" , or US "unhealthy pollution for sensitive groups" (children or
elderly persons) is considered in China as a "light pollution"! </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chinese cities new air quality ranking based on the 6 months mean
AQI from May to Oct. 2013 </span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Since May
2013 a synthetic document is published </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">monthly </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(see <a href="http://www.pm25s.com/month/201310.html">MEP November issue</a> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">)
giving all the monthly mean values for 76 cities (May to September 2013)
extended at 114 cities (October 2013).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The AQI ranking
of the various 76 cities is presented in the following figure 4 based on the
mean value for the period May to Oct. 2013.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZuHfRtG-eao/UqpX0pMuDiI/AAAAAAAABTs/tul6O6Vfum4/s1600/AFW28_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZuHfRtG-eao/UqpX0pMuDiI/AAAAAAAABTs/tul6O6Vfum4/s640/AFW28_4.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4 style="font-size: medium;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure 4: First AQI ranking for 76 cities - May to Oct. 2013 (see www.ppm25.com)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The 3 best
ranking cities during the 6 months period were </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">island or coastal cities</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: Haikou i</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">n Hainan (38); Zhoushan in Zhejiang </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(45); Xiamen in Fujian(48) having an "excellent" AQI.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">After these 3 best ranking cities
there is a steady climb of air pollution – with Guangzhou (62), Shanghai
(67), then Harbin (77), Chongqing (78)- before reaching a sharp air pollution acceleration
in the tail of the ranking beginning with Beijing (112) and Tianjin (113).</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The 2 worst
ranking cities are both in Hebei: Xingtai (184); Shijiazhuang (172) ; all having a "moderately
polluted" air quality (in US very
unhealthy!).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">These are AQI
mean values on a 6 month period which is averaging and thus decreasing
the monthly variations.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If we look at the mean October AQI values the
readings are more contrasted: there are altogether 12 cities which are either "moderately" or "heavily polluted" (US Unhealthy or Very polluted): </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Xingtai:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">274; G06_Shijiazhuang:243;
G06_Baoding:195; G08_Zhengzhou:192;
G06_Handan:176; G10_Changsha:173;
G10_Xiangtan:171; G06_Hengshui:164;
G04_Harbin:161; G02_Xian:157;
G10_Wuhan:155; G10_Zhuzhou:153. (See Figure 6 for the GO1 to G14 cities' clusters). </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If we could look further at the cities' </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">24h </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">mean values, variations could even be much contrasted. G04_Harbin which had a 6 months man value of 77 (good), was ranked 161 in October ("moderately polluted" or US Unhealthy) and had issued </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">PM2.5</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> reading around 1000</span></span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">µg/m3 </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">around Oct. 20-21.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">The cities’
conundrum in China</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As explained
in my post dated 10 Oct. 2013, to better understand China overall urban air
pollution, it is convenient to group similarly located cities which are also behaving closely together as concerns their Air Quality Indexes. These cluster of
relevant cities have been presented in a paper by W. J. Qu,
R. Arimoto & al (2010).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">During the period June 2000 to Feb. 2007, we have past values of PM10 pollution concerning a set of 87 main cities clustered over 14+1 groups. For each of these grouping of cities we have 4 seasonal coefficients.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FpxOzuEHyOg/UqhCW-V9-HI/AAAAAAAABS0/Dmsfc-8Unxg/s1600/AFW28_5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FpxOzuEHyOg/UqhCW-V9-HI/AAAAAAAABS0/Dmsfc-8Unxg/s640/AFW28_5.jpg" height="542" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure 5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"> : The cluster of 14+1 group of cities from
W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto & al in 2010 </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moreover we explained that in
order to provide systematic value of </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">pertinent</span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">population exposure to air pollution, population
weighted mean values were necessary.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Figure 6 below is presenting the intersection of the various cities tracked
under the PM10 concentration in this post:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">86 main
cities for which we have PM10 references on the period June 2000 - February
2007 from W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto & al (2010).</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">76 cities
tracked by MEP (www.ppm25.com) since May 2013 increased at 114 (+38) in October
2013</span></li>
</ul>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XCXuJ5SktrI/UqpX37eu9hI/AAAAAAAABT4/oTTEZhhVYuU/s1600/AFW28_6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XCXuJ5SktrI/UqpX37eu9hI/AAAAAAAABT4/oTTEZhhVYuU/s400/AFW28_6.png" height="296" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
Figure 6: The cities' conumdrun in China</h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We can see
that 46+18= 64 cities documented by PEM monthly monitoring are already included
in the 86 main cities and that additional
50 new cities had been supplied bringing up to 86 +50 = 136 the cluster of Chinese
cities shown in Figures 6 and 7.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wXDJPpfRh64/UqhC5fFuZqI/AAAAAAAABTM/xsA-KVZijuE/s1600/AFW28_7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wXDJPpfRh64/UqhC5fFuZqI/AAAAAAAABTM/xsA-KVZijuE/s640/AFW28_7.png" height="486" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 7: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Cluster of Chinese 136 cities figuring either in the <a href="tel:200-2007" x-apple-data-detectors-result="2" x-apple-data-detectors-type="telephone" x-apple-data-detectors="true">200-2007</a> evaluations or in May to October 2013 new readings</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Since May
2013, 46 cities which were around 53% o</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">f the 86 cities are documented by the
Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP), but population weighted
these cities are amounting to </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">218
Mil </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">or 80% of the 86 cities total population (271 Mil). </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This distortion is due to heavy weight cities having a huge population such as </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G09_Shanghai (22 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Beijing (19 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Tianjin (11 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G14_Guangzhou (11 Mil) </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">or
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G14_Shenzhen (10 Mil).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A set of 22
cities (22=86-46-18) included in the 86 main cities are not yet documented by
MEP. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Altogether they have a population of 28 Mil on which 9 cities with urban
population around 1.5 Mil: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G11_Deyang: (3. 8 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G11_Nanchong (1. 7 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G13_Zhanjiang (1.6 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G05_Anshan (1.6 Mil); G04_Qiqihar
(1.5 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G10_Zhangjiajie
(1.5 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G10_Changde (1.5 Mil) ;
G09_Wuhu (1. 4 Mil)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G11_Luzhou (1. 4 Mil).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">As regards PM10
only: is it possible to assess whether the air pollution has improved or
deteriorated over the past ten years?</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As we have a
set of PM10 mean values during Jun. 2000 to Feb. 2007 for each of the 86 cities
(see my post dated 10 Oct. 2013) and the seasonal variations in each of the
14+1 cities’ groupings, it is then possible to evaluate the population weighted
PM10 mean value during May to Oct. 2000-2007 (the median date is Sep.. 2003)
and to assess the variation during the 10 years lead time period. <span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XfHj6kc28Mc/UqhC5c7ZFII/AAAAAAAABTI/W0kOww6zETM/s1600/AFW28_8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XfHj6kc28Mc/UqhC5c7ZFII/AAAAAAAABTI/W0kOww6zETM/s640/AFW28_8.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 8</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Variation of PM10 for 46 cities during the 10 year between June 2000 - Feb. 2007 and May - Oct. 2013</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>A stabilization of PM10 during the last </b></span></span><b style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">10 years or even a 10% reduction </b><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We found during the six month period from May to Oct. 2013 a population-weighted PM10 mean value of 90 </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">µg/m3,</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> which is a reduction of 10% </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">- or around 1% each year- since the reference period
from Jun. 2000 to Feb. 2007 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">on the population-weighted PM10 mean values (100 </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">µg/m3)</span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> for the same monitored cities </span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">(see Figure 8 with the cities’ detailed variations).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This apply
only to 53% (and 80% population weighted) of the 86 main cities and does not
permit to infer with certainty that there had been a reduction of PM10 pollution
in the sample of 86 main cities. But a mere overall stabilization should seem plausible.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We have seen that the 47% (or 25% population
weighted) of the 86 main cities are not yet documented by the MEP this including cities with an urban population around 1.5 Mil.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If we look at the 10 years' variations presented in the Figure 8 above: </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">29 cities had
seen their PM10 pollution level decreasing:</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">G11_Chongqing (7.5Mil):-40.2%; G10_Changsha (3.1Mil):-35.4%;
G09_Shanghai (22.3Mil):-35.1%; G09_Hangzhou (6.2Mil):-33.4%; G01_Yinchuan (1.3Mil):-31.7%;
G09_Suzhou (5.3Mil):-26.5%; G01_Lanzhou (2.5Mil):-26.4%; G06_Beijing
(19.3Mil):-26.2%; G03_Taiyuan (3.4Mil):-24.5%; G05_Shenyang (6Mil):-23.6%; G14_Guangzhou
(11.1Mil):-21.9%; G09_Ningbo (3.5Mil):-21.1%; G09_Huzhou (2.6Mil):-19.5%; G10_Wuhan
(9.8Mil):-15.6%; G14_Fuzhou (2.9Mil):-15.6%; G04_Harbin (4.5Mil):-15.4%; G09_Nanjing
(7.2Mil):-14.1%; G09_Nantong (2.3Mil):-13.9%; G13_Guiyang (3Mil):-13.7%; G11_Chengdu
(7.7Mil):-13.4%; G10_Nanchang (2.4Mil):-12.8%; G01_Xining (1.2Mil):-12.6%; GXX_Lhasa
(0.3Mil):-11.5%; G09_Yangzhou (2.4Mil):-11.0%; G12_Kunming (3.6Mil):-10.6%; G14_Wenzhou
(3Mil):-10.4%; G06_Dalian (3.7Mil):-5.8%; G02_Xian (6.5Mil):-3.9%; G09_Shaoxing
(0.9Mil):-2.6%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">17 cities had
seen their PM10 pollution level increasing:</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">G06_Shijiazhuang (2.9Mil):61.8%; G06_Qinhuangdao (1Mil):54.2%;
G08_Zhengzhou(4.3Mil):46.9%; G07_Jinan (4.3Mil):30.5%; G07_Qingdao (4.6Mil):28.9%;
G03_Hohhot (2Mil):25.5%; GXX_Ürümqi (3Mil):22.4%; G14_Shenzhen (10.4Mil):22.2%;
G14_Zhuhai (1.6Mil):21.4%; G04_Changchun (3.5Mil):17.8%; G09_Zhenjiang (1.2Mil):14.8%;
G13_Nanning (3.4Mil):13.0%; G14_Xiamen (3.5Mil):11.6%; G09_Hefei (3.4Mil):10.2%;
G06_Tianjin (11.1Mil):9.3%; G13_Haikou (2Mil):8.8%; G07_Lianyungang (1Mil):4.4%<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">We see that there are many more heavily populated cities in the first group as compared to the second which explains the overall variation.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Monthly
PM2.5 pollutant readings and how they compare to PM10 readings</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The
integration of PM2.5 pollution in the new AQI index is a significant change. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It
sheds a new and disturbing light on the overall air quality, including during
the prior years, when this pollutant was not taken into account. We can see
from the following Figure 9 than the PM2.5 content is the biggest component with a
mean value of more than 50µg/m3. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XL5_hwn3GUY/UqhA76lt1PI/AAAAAAAABSQ/EQsnhpY3-5E/s640/AFW28_9.png" height="480" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure 9</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> : PM2.5 and PM10: 6 months' mean values for
46 cities </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><b>The volatility of PM2.5 inside
PM10 is generating new pollutions:</b></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If
we consider cities where PM2.5’s 6
month mean values are between 75 and 150µg/m3 (classified "lightly" or "moderately
polluted"), we find the following 12 cities: </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Xingtai: 127.2; G06_Shijiazhuang: 113.7;
G06_Handan: 101.7; G06_Baoding: 97.9; G06_Tangshan: 97.2; G06_Hengshui: 96.0; G08_Zhengzhou:
91.3; G06_Langfang: 88.7; G07_Jinan: 86.7; G06_Tianjin: 83.1; G06_Cangzhou: 81.5;
G06_Beijing: 78.5.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Then
if we consider cities where PM10’s 6 month mean values are between 150 and 250µg/m3, we find the following
8 cities:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Xingtai: 249.3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Shijiazhuang: 247.3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Handan: 194.2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Hengshui: 173.5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Baoding: 169.0</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Tangshan: 166.2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G07_Jinan: 160.8</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Langfang: 156.0.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">We find 1/3 of cities which are in the first group are not in the second: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">G08_Zhengzhou: 91.3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">G06_Tianjin: 83.1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">G06_Cangzhou: 81.5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">; </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">G06_Beijing:78.5. </span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">This means that there is not necessarily a proportional relationship between PM2.5 and PM10, as we can see in Figure10 and that the volatility of PM2.5 inside PM10 could be generating additional air pollution.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">G06 Beijing_Tianjin_Hebei group of cities are particularly concerned by PM2.5 high volatility pollution impact.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Days where PM2.5>35</span>µg/m3:</b></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Furthermore MEP monthly statistics are providing </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">for each city </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">the n</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">umber of days where PM2.5<35µg/m3. It is then easy to derive </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(see Figure 10 below) the n</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">umber of days where PM2.5>35µg/m3 over the 6 months period May to Oct. 2013.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">After factoring by the urban population then the overall proportion of days where PM2.5>35</span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">µg/m3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> are population weighted around 21% of the days during the 6 months period May to Oct. 2013.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RNgexVnGRNk/UqhC43aCsNI/AAAAAAAABTQ/t8ywFSYr2bQ/s1600/AFW28_10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RNgexVnGRNk/UqhC43aCsNI/AAAAAAAABTQ/t8ywFSYr2bQ/s640/AFW28_10.png" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure 10</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Number of days where PM2.5 is greater than 35µg/m3 -6
months period May to Oct. 2013<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">During
the 6 months period we have 16 cities which have more than 20% of days
where PM2.5 is greater than 35µg/m3, including the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06_Shijiazhuang (2.9 Mil):72.3%;
G06_Tianjin (11.1 Mil):71.2%; G07_Jinan (4.3 Mil):57.6%; G08_Zhengzhou (4.3
Mil):47.3%; G06_Beijing (19.3 Mil):40.8%; G02_Xian (6.5 Mil):33.7%; G06_Qinhuangdao (1 Mil):31.5%;
G09_Zhenjiang (1.2 Mil):27.7%; G09_Hefei
(3.4 Mil):25.5%; G10_Changsha (3.1 Mil):23.9%; G10_Wuhan (9.8 Mil):22.8%;
G09_Yangzhou (2.4 Mil):22.3%; G03_Taiyuan
(3.4 Mil):21.7%; G07_Lianyungang: (1 Mil):21.2%; G09_Shaoxing (0.9 Mil):20.1%; G09_Suzhou: (5.3 Mil):20.1%.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Here again the </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">G06: Beijing_Tianjin_Hebei and G09_Shanghai_Anhui_Jiangsu_Zhejiang 2 clusters of cities are especially concerned.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 6.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Of course that level of PM2.5 pollution is deadly dangerous. The minimum yearly intake of fine particulate matter <span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">at</span> a concentration > 35<span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">µg/m3</span> allowed under USA standard (see my post dated 22 Sep. Figure 2) is 2 percentiles (2% of days or 7 days during 1 year). So more than 20% of days is a huge impact implying afterward a high level of health hazard. </div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span>jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-4534174627440345842013-10-11T04:10:00.001-07:002014-10-03T01:47:55.754-07:00Inhalable PM10 in most Chinese cities more than 3 - 6 times the yearly limits allowed by the EU or WHO<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SMExd0z4xMY/UlfbkhY-cNI/AAAAAAAABNA/a1NmNMjgmS0/s1600/AFW26_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SMExd0z4xMY/UlfbkhY-cNI/AAAAAAAABNA/a1NmNMjgmS0/s640/AFW26_1.jpg" height="361" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">: In 2011, WHO named Lanzhou as the city with the worst air quality in China. In
spring, dust storms choke the city - a product of deforestation, overgrazing
and urban sprawl</span><span lang="EN-US"> <span style="font-size: small;">(<a href="http://www.dw.de/economic-growth-chokes-china/a-16395393">from Deutsche Welle</a>)</span></span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">I<span style="font-family: inherit;">nhalable PM10 pollutant (particulate matter with diameter <10 </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;">μ<span lang="EN-US">m) is of primary concern
for most Chinese cities. </span></span><span lang="EN-US">Concentration of </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333;">PM10 </span><span lang="EN-US">over China obeys a regional distribution pattern. The location of sources, climate or land changes, may concentrate air pollutants or otherwise facilitate their dispersion.</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br />
Combined with unequal inhabitant concentration PM10 regional
variations at ground level are leading to different degree of population exposure
to PM health hazards.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">This is especially difficult
to assess as atmospheric aerosol have marked spatial and temporal variations
due to their relatively short residence time and the heterogeneity of their
sources.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">In addition to regional
situation, </span><span lang="EN-US">intense<span class="apple-converted-space"> dust storms </span>originating from </span><span lang="EN-US">Mongolia</span><span lang="EN-US"> and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US">Kazakhstan </span><span lang="EN-US">deserts</span><span lang="EN-US"> may </span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US">produce </span></span><span lang="EN-US">clouds of fine dry PM. These occurrences have increased in the
last decade due to industrial </span><span lang="EN-US">pollutants<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>contained in the dust and intensified<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>desertification<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>in Western China.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">There have been numerous ground-based studies of PM10 air pollution in China. However, even taken together, most studies do
not provide a systematic picture of the population exposure distibution due to limited
coverage</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">of observations and difficulties</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">in inter-comparing results.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">PM aerosol information obtained from satellite measurement
of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) may be useful</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. </span><span lang="EN-US">However, AOT is influenced</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">by many factors including the vertical structure and
height of the atmospheric mixing layer. Therefore, they will differ from those
of the ground relevant for population exposure.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">So far the best approach to this crucial issue in China appears to be a
study of the concentration of PM10 in 86 most important Chinese cities covering
the main inhabited regions. This study has been conducted by scientists from Chinese
and American agencies.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">This paper</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US">published in June 2010 </span><span lang="EN-US">by </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf">W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto</a></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf"> & al</a>.</span><span lang="EN-US"> is based
on measurements of Air Pollution Index (API) </span><span lang="EN-US">carried out by the Environmental Protection Agency of China (EPA-China) </span><span lang="EN-US">from June 2000 to February 2007</span><span lang="EN-US">.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Reconstruction of PM10
concentration from air pollution index (API) readings in 86 major Chinese
cities</span></h3>
</div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">As explained in <a href="http://asianfootprint.blogspot.com/2013/07/haze-pollution-by-fine-particulate.html">my post dated 16 July 2013</a>, Air Quality Index (API) in Asia are established
following rules very similar to the US Air Quality Index including the reading of the 5 pollutants:
PM10, O3, CO, SO2 & NO2. The only difference with US AQI is that very fine PM2.5 pollutant (</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: normal;">particulate matter with diameter <2.5 </span><span style="line-height: normal;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: normal;">m) are missing from pollutant list which downplay the true harm done from all PM. </span></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">In China, the 5 pollutants reported daily for each city are continuously
measured at several monitoring stations in different types of areas
(commercial, cultural, downtown, residential, traffic, industrial, etc.) and at
a clean background station. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The daily average concentrations of these pollutants are then computed
from the measurements made at all of the stations. A sub-index is calculated
for each pollutant with a dimensionless number from 0 to 500. The maximum sub-index
is then reported as the API for the city and day and the concerned pollutant as
the "</span><span lang="EN-US">primary</span><span lang="EN-US"> pollutant".<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">PM10 being most of the time the primary pollutant, it means that the value of API as monitored
by EPA-China can be used to reconstruct the PM10 of the city and day. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">API records for 86 major Chinese cities </span><span lang="EN-US">spanning from June 2000 to February</span><span lang="EN-US">2007 </span><span lang="EN-US">(available at <a href="http://www.sepa.gov.cn/quality/air.php3">State Environmental ProtectionAgency</a></span><span lang="EN-US">) </span><span lang="EN-US">were used in the W. J. Qu,
R. Arimoto & al. June 2010 study.</span><span lang="EN-US"> PM10 concentrations were calculated only for days when PM10 was the
principal pollutant, all together accounting for 91.6% of the total 150,428 recorded
days.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">These results were then used to study the spatial
variability of PM10 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">in the 86 Chinese cities</span>.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Location of the 86
Chinese cities and grouping of 14
clusters of cities according to their APIs</span></h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">A fuzzy clustering procedure was used to determine which cities were
strongly correlated together in their APIs. These cities were defined as part
of a cluster of cities behaving closely together as concerns their APIs.<span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Through these procedures, 83 cities in Midwestern China (longitude 100°
E to 130° E) were divided into 14 clusters (Figure 2) corresponding more or
less to provincial regions with some exceptions. </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">For instance</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> Hohehot (HHT) in Inner
Mongolia and Datong (DT) in Shanxi province both located on the Northeastern margin of the Great Bend of the Yellow River were assigned to
group G03. Or Dalian city from Liaoning province assigned to G03. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">The 14 city clusters were further </span><span lang="EN-US">separated in 3 latitudinal
Northern (blue), Middle (green) and Southern (orange) zones.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">In addition, 2 cities in
Xinjiang Uyghur and one in Tibet in Western China (83-91°E) were included in
the sample adding up to 86 cities all over China. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jqJ_5yFRZ18/UlfbsVp08rI/AAAAAAAABNY/eyac04l8ai0/s1600/Map_Groupes+Cities.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jqJ_5yFRZ18/UlfbsVp08rI/AAAAAAAABNY/eyac04l8ai0/s640/Map_Groupes+Cities.jpg" height="542" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : Location of the 86 Chinese cities for which data are available;
colored frames are showing the separated in 3 latitudinal: Northern (blue),
Middle (green) and Southern (orange) zones</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; line-height: 14.4pt;">The full name of the 86 cities are listed in the followings Figures 3, 4 & 5. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 14.4pt;"><br /></span>
</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; line-height: 14.4pt;">The Northern zone (north of 33 °N,
Figure 3) includes 38 cities with
an urban population of 110 Mil people (2010 census).</span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt; tab-stops: 255.75pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 14.4pt; tab-stops: 255.75pt;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dm6pCCoPDfw/Umso_HeRcZI/AAAAAAAABQ8/utsWGdjm6Sk/s1600/AFW26_3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dm6pCCoPDfw/Umso_HeRcZI/AAAAAAAABQ8/utsWGdjm6Sk/s640/AFW26_3.png" height="528" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"> : 8 Northern G01 to G08 clusters over 38 cities/109 Mil people</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; line-height: 14.4pt;">The Middle zone (between 28° N to 33°
N, Figure 4) includes 26
cities with an urban population of 103 Mil people (2010 census).</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Wthhunwzoz0/UlfblKQYyTI/AAAAAAAABNE/uvpBKr2oq8Q/s1600/AFW26_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Wthhunwzoz0/UlfblKQYyTI/AAAAAAAABNE/uvpBKr2oq8Q/s640/AFW26_4.png" height="382" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : 3 middle G09 to G11 clusters over 26 cities / 103 Mil people<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">The southern zone (south of 28°N) contains 19 cities with an urban population of 54.5 Mil ((2010 census). </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 14.4pt;">Contrary to Northern and Middle
zones containing two basins oriented East-West, the Southern zone is mainly a
hilly area.</span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4wEpzPnhB44/Ulf950yii-I/AAAAAAAABOA/2WOTlXIbU04/s1600/AFW26_5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4wEpzPnhB44/Ulf950yii-I/AAAAAAAABOA/2WOTlXIbU04/s640/AFW26_5.png" height="462" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">5</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : 3 Southern G12 to G14 clusters over 19 cities / 55 Mil people
plus 3 Western cities: altogether totaling 86 cities /270Mil people </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h4>
<span style="font-size: large;">Computing the PM10 population exposure </span></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The above study provides some
information on concentrations of PM10 in each city during the period June 2000
- February 2007. But it does not give the correct average value for all 86 cities over the period. Instead, each city is listed within six growing ranges of PM10 concentration between
36 and 193μ g/m3 (see Figure 6 below extracted from WJ Qu, R. Arimoto and al.).</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5nWYng1Anpw/Ulf95P_cE1I/AAAAAAAABN4/3iHxvI32HMc/s1600/Map_China_87_Cities+-+Copie.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5nWYng1Anpw/Ulf95P_cE1I/AAAAAAAABN4/3iHxvI32HMc/s640/Map_China_87_Cities+-+Copie.png" height="542" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:
"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;
line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">6</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:
"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> : Distribution of PM10 ranges over the 86 cities
(from </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf">W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf"> &al. </a> </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">)</span></span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Nevertheless the study above highlights - among the14 groups of 86 cities - the average concentrations in 31 cities where PM10 pollution had been the highest during these periods. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Finally it provides the average concentration of PM10 respectively in each of the 14 groups and the 3 major geographic zones (see also Figure 9 below). But- and this is an important issue in terms of population exposure- it is the arithmetic mean value, each city having </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">the same weight regardless of its population.</span><br />
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In order to obtain the average concentration of the missing 8<span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">6-31= 55 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">cities</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> which exact values are not published, we have extracted a complete set of city average concentration by adjusting the average concentration of the </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">55 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">missing cities inside their range values while meeting the arithmetic mean of the 14 groups . </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">So a set of detailed yearly average PM10 concentration at city level </span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">were obtained and Figure 7
below is showing the result in term of population weighted mean what is the
exact population exposure to PM10 pollution in the 14 clusters of cities. </span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zNrxcSAziHE/UmnAdMzwvrI/AAAAAAAABPw/uJQ21iHwJbU/s1600/AFW26_7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-zNrxcSAziHE/UmnAdMzwvrI/AAAAAAAABPw/uJQ21iHwJbU/s640/AFW26_7.png" height="534" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">7</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Distribution of PM10 population weighted exposure over the 14 clusters of cities </span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">We see that the two types of weighting give very similar results at country level - a 1% increasing - while the zones' spreads are much higher around 5-10%. But at the level of cities' clusters the spreads are even much higher, especially for G01 (+12.5%), G06 (+15.3%), G10 (+10.4%) & G13 (+12.2%).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This was expected since the most populated urban areas are also often the most polluted</span>.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">Cities' yearly PM10 population exposure </span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Using the </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">detailed average PM10 concentration at city level</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">, it is then possible to sort out the 86 cities according to their decreasing PM10 average concentrations over Jun. 2000 to Feb. 2007 with the cumulated urban population (see the "monotonous yearly PM10" in the following Figure 8). </span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">This monotonous curve puts into perspective both the average pollution in the concerned urban
areas and the population at risk in term of health PM10
pollutant </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">hazards.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">8</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : 86 Cities classified with decreasing value of PM10 exposure and cumulated urban population</span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">We see so clearly the enormous weight of the pollution of cities having more than 5 Mil inhabitants in the curve: Beijing (19.3 Mil / 159 μg/m3), Xian (6.5 Mil/144 μg/m3), Chongqing (7.4Mil/142μg/m3), Tianjin (11.1 Mil/140 μg/m3 ), Wuhan (9.8 Mil/135 μg/m3), Shanghai (22.3Mil/103 μg/m3), Suzhou (5.3 Mil/103 μg/m3), Guangzhou (11.1Mil/85μg/m3) and Shenzhen (10.4 Mil/46 μg/m3).</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">All cities are far above the WHO and EU yearly limits that are respectively 20 & 40 μg/m3 as explained in my post dated 16 July 2013. </span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The average </span><span lang="EN-US">population weighted PM10 is 109μg/m3 (see Figure 7) and the Chinese population exposure in the 86 most important cities is around 2.7 at 5.5 times EU and WHO yearly maximum limits.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">There are 9 cities with PM10 in the range: 153-192μg/m3 ( “Red cities “) and </span>12 cities in the range: 128-147μg/m3 (“Violet cities”) as shown in the Figure 9 below:<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Figure 9: The 21 most polluted cities <span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">(from </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf">W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto</a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf"> & al.</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">)</span></span></span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">There are
only 4 Cities meeting the EU maximum 40μg/m3 </span></span>yearly limit<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">, that is about 2% of the 86 cities total population. They are all in G13</span><span style="font-family: inherit;">: Beihai (BH); Guilin (BH); Haikou (HK) & Zhanjiang (ZhaJ).</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">Variation of daily PM10 concentration</span></h3>
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">We know (see my post dated 16
July 2013) that the annual average in each of the 86 Chinese cities is
insufficient to assess the health hazards associated with breathing high level
of PM pollutant during an extended period.</span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">It is necessary to limit as
much as possible the number of days during the year when the concentration is
above a maximum threshold. Or - which is exactly the same- to verify that
during most of the time PM10 is lower than this maximum limit.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">For EU: PM10 should be lower
than 50μg/m3 during at least 90.4 % of days over 1 year. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">For USA: PM10
should be lower than 150μg/m3 during at least 99.9 % of days over 3 years. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">It means
that for EU PM10>50μg/m3 is accepted only during 35 days per year, and for
US PM10 could be higher than 150μg/m3 only during 1 day over 3 years. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">For Chinese most important cities
the range of probability for both 50 and 150μg/m3 thresholds are also given in the study from W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto & al. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">So w</span><span style="line-height: 115%;">e can sort out the
86 Chinese cities by decreasing occurrences ranges for the 2 daily pollution
limits (50 & 150 μg/m3) with</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> the cumulated populations (see Figure 9 below). Its </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">means that we select in first the cities with the highest concentration occurences </span><span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">(see the "monotonous occurence days " in the following Figure 9).</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">9</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Probability of days with PM<50 or <150 μg/m3 (from </span><a href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/5641/2010/acp-10-5641-2010.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">W. J. Qu, R. Arimoto</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"> & al.</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US">) </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">Considering the EU daily PM10 limit that is 35 days only with pollution </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">exceeding 50μg/m3</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">over 1 year </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">:</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">The 86 Chinese cities have </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">8 to 10 times more days when the daily pollution exceeds 50μg/m3, which is about 250-300 days for the less polluted and 330-360 days for the most polluted cities.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Considering the </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">US daily PM10 limit that is 1 day only with pollution exceeding 150</span></span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">μg/m3</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">over 3 years</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;"> : </span></span></span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-align: center;">Chinese cities have 25 to 500 times more days when the daily pollution exceeds 150μg/m3, which is about, 1-55 days for less polluted cities and 400-540 days for the most polluted</span></span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px; text-align: center;">.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Discussion</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-size: x-large; text-align: center;">
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<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Deriving PM10
from API readings introduces mechanically reduction on daily PM10 records</span></span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">When daily API readings are less
than 50 or more than 500, daily PM10 values are either set to zero or 600μg/m3. So daily low PM10 are supposed to be zero and high readings are decreased!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">4 cities recorded more than 10 days when API =
500. These were: Lanzhou (47 days), Ürümchi (36 days), Xining (24 days) and</span><span lang="EN-US"><u1:p></u1:p> </span><span lang="EN-US">Beijing
(12 days). Taken together, the other 21 cities recording at least 1 days when
API = 500 had 57 records.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">For the days when PM10 was
principal pollutant and the API was reported as 500, the PM10 could be well above the upper limit for the air quality classification of “high-level
pollution” (600<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span>μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3).
Such high particulate loading can occur during severe dust storms in some
northern cities. However, in the study, all of the API records of 500 were set
to PM10 at 600<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span>μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">As published by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/heavy-smog-in-northern-chinese-city-of-harbin-halts-buses-closes-schools-cancels-flights/2013/10/21/57165d96-3a0c-11e3-b0e7">Associated Press on Oct. 21 2013</a> “Super smog in northern Chinese city of
Harbin</span><span lang="EN-US">: The density of very
fine particulate matter, PM2.5, used as an indicator of air quality was well
above 600 </span><span lang="EN-US">- </span>including several readings of exactly
1,000μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3</span> for several monitoring stations in Harbin (...). They were the first
known readings of 1,000 μ<span lang="EN-US">g/m3</span> since China began releasing figures on PM2.5 in January
2012, and it was not immediately clear if the devices used for monitoring could
give readings higher than that”.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The size of the cities in China is a problem</b></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">We have 14 city clusters
on half the Chinese territory which is around 320,000 km2 in each cluster and about the
size of Poland. But the selected cities are also quite big covering around
20-25% over each cluster, with average area spanning from 50,000 to 80,000km2.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">If we take Qirihar
for example in G04<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">which is a<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US">prefecture-level city: the total area of its 8 districts and 8 counties amounts to 42,400km2 – the size of Denmark or Switzerland and bigger
than Belgium!- with a density averaging from 76 to 2,716 people per km2 (average
126). Is it possible to average the various API or PM10 readings?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Or Dalian in G06
which is a major city and port with a total area of 12,574km2 –about 5 times
the size of Luxembourg- with 9 districts and one county and a density averaging
from 26 to 3,900 people per km2 (average 470). Is it possible to assume that
the high density areas are similar to the low density’s?</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">On large areas it
is necessary to have more densely located readings and be able to simulate the
variation of PM10 inside a grid at least 10x10 km2.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>Moreover it
is necessary to compute the population weighted average</b></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">If we want to be
able to compute the real population exposure then we should be able to localize
the population at least with a grid of 1x1 km2. If we had a smaller grid we
might have much higher value of population exposure.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>The
daily average concentration is more meaningful than the yearly average</b></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The real unsafe limit from
PM10 occurs when exceeding a daily limit over a period of days or weeks. WHO is
suspecting that no threshold for PM has been identified below which no damage
to health is observed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">In the 86 Chinese cities, the daily population
exposure are 10-100 times higher than the exposures normally accepted following EU or US standards. The
reason is that the daily limits are much more difficult to meet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Thus the overall picture is
extremely severe for the 86 Chinese cities if reference is made to daily limits
in Europe and the USA.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">For the 86 most important
cities, the Chinese population exposure to PM10 concentrations currently around
2.7 at 5.5 times higher than EU and WHO yearly maximum limits is a very
conservative assessment. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
<u1:p></u1:p>
</span><br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-26342619470871512942013-09-22T08:13:00.004-07:002014-10-03T01:48:32.240-07:00Population exposure to Particulate Matter (PM) pollution: PM10 & PM2.5 yearly and daily limits <div class="Pa13" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: start;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uoWHH0ErAKg/Umcfb09F11I/AAAAAAAABPU/eTN4ly9zKjQ/s1600/AFW27_4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-uoWHH0ErAKg/Umcfb09F11I/AAAAAAAABPU/eTN4ly9zKjQ/s640/AFW27_4.png" height="640" width="638" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 1: Combined rural and urban concentration map of PM10 – 36th highest daily average values, year 2010 (from European air quality maps </span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> ETC/ACM Technical Paper - </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/reports/docs/ETCACM_TP_2012_12_AQMaps2010.pdf"><span style="font-size: small;"><u>Jan Horálek & al.</u> </span><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: small;">March</span> <span style="font-size: small;">2013</span></span></a></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">)</span></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: start;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">The Figure above
is showing that around 20% of European population had been exposed in 2010 for more
than 35 days to Particulate matter (PM10) daily concentration greater than 50</span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">g/m3
(red or brownish squares): Albany, Cyprus, Greece, Macedonia, Norway and Poland
being particularly concerned. </span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.25pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">
<br />
Whereas during the same period, around 5% only of the same population had been
exposed to yearly average concentration greater than 40</span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">g/m3.<br />
<br />
Why such a discrepancy between those two figures? Which either from daily or
yearly PM10 concentration is more representative? How can we derive area
concentration from specific measure in a station? How is defined the population
exposure?<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FAFAFA; line-height: 14.25pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Those are the
relevant question concerning PM air pollution that we want to address is the
following posts.<br />
<br />
PM is referring to a heterogeneous mixture of particles (solid and liquid)
suspended in air, also known as atmospheric aerosols. PM mixture size and
chemical composition change in time and space, depending on emission sources,
atmospheric and weather conditions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
PM originate partly from human or natural sources, partly from in situ or
distance locations. The largest particles of concern are 10 microns or
smaller in diameter (PM</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">10<span style="background: #FAFAFA;">). But the groups of most concern are 2.5
microns or smaller in diameter (PM</span>2.5<span style="background: #FAFAFA;">). The coarse particles are those which size are greater than 2.5
microns and smaller than 10 microns.</span><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FAFAFA; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
This post concentrates on PM pollutant only as currently done by the scientific
community, although we are exposed to a complex mixture of pollutants. But
additional research is needed to understand and quantify the possible additive,
synergetic or antagonistic effects between pollutants which are encountered
simultaneously in the ambient air.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sources of PM and
their effects on health, environment and climate</span></span></h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<br />
<div class="Pa13" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>PM sources </b></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">PM in the atmosphere originates from primary particles emitted directly
& secondary particles produced as a result of chemical reactions involving
so-called PM volatile organic compounds (VOC).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Pa13" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Although the influence of emission sources on PM concentration is greatest
near the sources, PM concentrations are influenced by atmospheric transport between
countries. In Southeast Asia, haze spell are observed in Malaysia and Singapore
generated during the dry season from open fires in Sumatra (see my posts dated 15 July 2013 & 14 Sep 2012). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Studies
have shown that dust aerosols from Asia Northeastern Taklimakan, Gobi & Badain
Jaran deserts and the Loess Plateau are transported to vast downwind areas
including large portions of China, Korean Peninsula, Japan , North Pacific,
North America , and even the Arctic regions (see</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> Studies on a
severe dust storm in East Asia <a href="http://aaqr.org/VOL13_No1_February2013/17_AAQR-12-05-OA-0108_179-193.pdf">by Wiao-Xian Huang & al</a>., 2012)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> .<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="Pa18">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Health
effects</span><span lang="EN-US"> </span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Some PM are small enough to pass from the
lung into the bloodstream just like oxygen molecules. Then they </span><span lang="EN-US">might cause or aggravate cardiovascular and lung
diseases, heart attacks and arrhythmias, affect the central nervous system, the
reproductive system and cause cancer. The outcome can be premature death. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="Pa18">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="Pa18">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><b>Environmental
effects</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">PM affect animals in the same
way as humans. Dust aerosol lifted into
atmosphere and deposited to oceans can affect global biogeochemical cycles as
well as human health. They affect plant growth and ecosystem processes,
cause damage to buildings and reduced visibility. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><b>Climate effects</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">PM climate effect varies depending on particle size and composition:
some might lead to net cooling (white PM), while others (brown or black) to
warming. Can lead to changed rainfall patterns. Deposition can lead to changes
in surface albedo.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">PM limit standards for PM10 and PM2.5</span></span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The following Figure 2 is summing up important existing
standards for both PM10 and PM2.5. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">Limit
concentrations may refer to both yearly and daily averages. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SclHEVzFMzs/Uj8HwYJdPlI/AAAAAAAABLY/2U1MmJ0ucq0/s1600/AFW25_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SclHEVzFMzs/Uj8HwYJdPlI/AAAAAAAABLY/2U1MmJ0ucq0/s640/AFW25_1.png" height="428" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure 2:</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> Air
quality standards or PM limit
values to avoid health issues<o:p></o:p></span></b></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">A 24-hour exceedance limit applies to the 90.4<sup>th</sup>
percentile (cf. EU-PM10), which means that PM10 may be greater than 50μg/m3 but less than 35 exceedance
days (9.6%) over a year. Or that the </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">36th highest daily average value is smaller than </span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">50μg/m3 (cf. Figure 1 above).</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">The World Health Organization (WHO) air quality
limits, shown in the above table, are stricter than the EU air quality
standards. The WHO explains that</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;">it is necessary to achieve the lowest
concentrations possible, because no threshold for PM has been identified below
which no damage to health is observed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">To reduce issues due to the cumulative effect of PM
breathing on human health, the total exposure days to a relatively small PM concentration
limit is more relevant than the yearly average. </span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<h2>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Relation between daily and yearly PM concentration</span></span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">A<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">log-normal distribution</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">is a</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">variable<span class="apple-converted-space"> distribution </span>whose<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>logarithm<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>is<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>normally
distributed.<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>
</span><span lang="EN-US">A
log-normal distribution law is used to describe </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">random </span><span lang="EN-US">variable taking only positive values in all fields of science such as:
latency periods of diseases, species’ abundancy, financial asset values,
geological data, fruit and flower rises etc... These distributions follow a
geometric Brownian motion with constant drift and volatility. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The measured daily average PM10 concentrations in a specific station
during one year is also log-normally
distributed as seen in the following Figure 3 (see “Relation
between daily exceedance and yearly averages for PM10”, <a href="http://www.harmo.org/Conferences/Proceedings/_Kos/publishedSections/H14-83.pdf">Joost Wesseling &al., 2011</a>).</span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mvTvAcYa6t4/Uj-8zcWa2mI/AAAAAAAABMU/zd8DDna_MAY/s1600/AFW25_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mvTvAcYa6t4/Uj-8zcWa2mI/AAAAAAAABMU/zd8DDna_MAY/s640/AFW25_2.jpg" height="394" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 3:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> An example of an individual concentration distribution of measured daily average PM10 concentrations in 2006 at a rural station in the Netherlands (from Joost Wesseling and alias 2011).</span></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">The two parameters </span><span style="background-color: white;">μ</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"> (</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">location)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"> and<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span style="background-color: white;">σ</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"> (</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">scale)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"> determine the shape of the
distribution. However, in a large number of cases, a shift (</span><span style="background-color: white;">δ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;">) (to the right) is necessary in order to satisfactorily describe the measured concentration
distributions, as there is always a certain background concentration present.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Using the assumed log-normal distribution, the
fraction of exceedance days having concentrations above 50μg/m3 less than 35
days</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> over one
year</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> can be computed by integrating this curve
distribution. In the curve Figure 4, this condition is met when Yearly PM10 is 31μg/m3.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">If we want to have concentration above 150μg/m3 less than
1 day over 3 years (cf. Figure 1 USA PM10 standards), with same σ and σ that in
Figure, </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">this condition is met when Yearly PM10 is 35μg/m3.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CL3zvayCVBs/Uj-9qPx2xwI/AAAAAAAABMk/0l84kNHeNe0/s1600/AFW25_3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CL3zvayCVBs/Uj-9qPx2xwI/AAAAAAAABMk/0l84kNHeNe0/s640/AFW25_3.jpg" height="466" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h3>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 4: </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Relation between </span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">the measured yearly average PM10 concentration and the number of days having average concentrations above 50 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">μ</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">g/m3. The curve labeled is a lognormal curve with </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">δ</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">=6 </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">μ</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">g/m</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">3 and </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 12pt;">σ</span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">=0.56.</span></b></h3>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The agreement is quite satisfactory with a ±5%
confidence interval. Around 35 exceedance days per year, 5% amounts to an
average underestimation of 1.75 days.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">So we can see that the daily limitation of
PM10>50μg/m3 only 35 days per year is more stringent that EU yearly
limitation (40μg/m3) but less tight than the WHO limit (20μg/m3) for two
reasons: the shape of the lognormal curve and </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">the value of the confidence interval.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">For the distribution given above, the EU condition PM10<50μg/m3 up to the 90.4th percentile over 1 year (ou PM> </span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">50μg/m3</span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> only 35 days per year) is roughly equivalent to the USA condition </span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">PM10<1</span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">50μg/m3 up to the 99.9th percentile over 3 years</span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> (or </span><span style="line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">PM10>150μg/m3 only 1 day per 3 years). I</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">f we look at the
number of days- with log normal distributions
having same sigma, delta as in the curve above- but variable yearly PM10: the 2
concentration day EU & US limits need
a yearly PM10 in the range 31-35</span><span lang="EL" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m3, with
EU limit being lightly more stringent to meet (yearly=31</span><span lang="EL" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m3) than US limit (yearly =35</span><span lang="EL" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m3).</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-45316966510006222412013-07-16T04:08:00.002-07:002014-10-03T01:48:57.963-07:00APi & PSI air quality indexes don't tell the whole truth due to very fine particulate matter missing from pollution readings <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m5-wsSN-hes/UeUk0ZJoeII/AAAAAAAABIQ/6WoPHGG1m7Y/s1600/AFW24-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-m5-wsSN-hes/UeUk0ZJoeII/AAAAAAAABIQ/6WoPHGG1m7Y/s400/AFW24-1.jpg" height="262" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--> <span lang="DA">Jun 29, 2013: </span><span lang="EN-US">People wear
face masks on Orchard Road in Singapore (<a href="http://uk.news.yahoo.com/indonesia-singapore-malaysia-meet-smog-103313397.html#12gfMxK">fromAFP</a>)</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In our last post we have been discussing about the last Sumatra haze spell in South Peninsular Malaysia and in Simgapore, based on
the official readings released by both Malaysia DOE and Singapore NEA. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">We explained that air
pollution indexes and sub-indexes in Malaysia or Singapore were established
following rules very similar to the US Air Quality Index including 5 only among the US AQI pollutants
(PM10, O3, CO, SO2 & NO2), but without the 6<sup>th</sup> PM2.5 pollutant used also in US AQI and EU CAQI
indexes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In Malaysia, it seems that
PM2.5 is some time measured but not published, while in Singapore PM2.5 is measured and
published along with the PSI index, but not incorporated as a sub-index before air
quality index computing. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Air
Quality Index compared computations from EU, US, Malaysia and Singapore </span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In my post date 14 July,
2013, I have explained how is computed the US AQI Index. You may find the AQI and its sub-indexes definition in « <a href="http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqi-technical-assistance-document-sep2012.pdf">Technical Assistance document for the Reporting of Daily Air Quality the AirQuality Index (AQI)</a>”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In UE the Common Air Quality
Index (CAQI) is an European Development with two indexes
« background » and « road-side ». We have selected as a
comparison’s reference the background CAQI and its sub-indexes see CAQI from <a href="http://www.obsairve.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7&Itemid=129&lang=en">EU </a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.obsairve.eu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7&Itemid=129&lang=en">Common Air Quality Index European Development</a>.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Because CAQI is
aiming mostly light polluted areas, the EU pollutant scale is much more limited than
in US AQI and as a consequence the grid values are much higher (for instance
CAQI=100 with PM10=100 when US AQI= 100 with PM10=154). So we have adjusted and decreased the CAQI grid in order to meet US
AQI at least for PM10.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For Malaysia API: see “API <a href="http://www.envirolift.com.my/apiguide.pdf">a guide for air pollutant index in Malaysia</a>” and for Singapore PSI index: see “<a href="http://app2.nea.gov.sg/data/cmsresource/20090401682645441976.pdf">Computation of the PollutantStandards Index (PSI)</a> “PDF document.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The following five Figures 2-6
are giving, for any value of the measured pollutant concentration located
inside two "turning points", the successive linear relationships to
calculate the value of the index with a "grid" common understanding
between all indexes and sub-indexes. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Each broken line describes pollutant action on
human health, each turning point corresponding to the crossing of a threshold
effect on health. The greater the index the more unheathy it is with grid<100 corresponding to good or moderate air quality. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure 2 shows a good relationship
between all the various sub-indexes for PM10
sub-indexes; and a slight divergence between EU and US for PM2.5
sub-indexes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7zTtUPRUOCA/UiRboxaroyI/AAAAAAAABLI/fd4OACnze78/s1600/AFW24-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7zTtUPRUOCA/UiRboxaroyI/AAAAAAAABLI/fd4OACnze78/s640/AFW24-2.png" height="424" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 2: Comparison of air quality sub-indexes for particulate matter pollutants (PM10 & PM2.5), over EU, US and API/PSI South Asia sub-indexes</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Figure 3 is showing a good
relationship between US, Malaysia and Singapore for CO sub-indexes. Inversely EU index is quite different with a much higher value for the pollutant concentration.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LznocLZ2cZI/UefFI3MA_TI/AAAAAAAABKU/EP_Dws44TV8/s1600/AFW24-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LznocLZ2cZI/UefFI3MA_TI/AAAAAAAABKU/EP_Dws44TV8/s640/AFW24-5.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span></span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-separator'></span></span></b><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><b
style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-end'></span></span></b><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> : Comparison of
air quality sub-indexes for carbon monoxide (CO) pollutant, over EU, US and
API/PSI South Asia sub-indexes</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figures 4, 5 & 6 are
showing more divergences between all countries for O3, SO2 and NO2 pollutant
sub-indexes.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c2c4BIhwglY/UeUk1Tf0noI/AAAAAAAABIY/pY4Z6uFDKRM/s1600/AFW24-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-c2c4BIhwglY/UeUk1Tf0noI/AAAAAAAABIY/pY4Z6uFDKRM/s640/AFW24-3.png" height="440" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> :</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Comparison of air quality sub-indexes for Ozone pollutant (O3), over EU, US and API/PSI South Asia sub-indexes.<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">5</span><span style="font-size: 14pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Comparison of air quality sub-indexes for Sulfur Dioxide pollutant (NO2), over EU, US and API/PSI South Asia sub-indexes<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">6</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Comparison of air quality sub-indexes for Nitrogen Dioxide pollutant (NO2), over EU, US and API/PSI South Asia sub-indexes<o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
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<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The importance of PM2.5 pollutant to assess the air quality </span></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">(See <a href="http://www.epa.gov/pmdesignations/faq.htm">PM2.5 fact from US EPA</a>)</span></h3>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Particles less than 10 µm in
diameter (PM10) pose a health concern because they can be inhaled, accumulated in the lungs and damage the respiratory system.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Particles less than 2.5 µm in
diameter (PM2.5) -referred to as "fine" particulate matter- are believed
to pose the greatest health risks. Why? Because of their small size (around 1/30th the width of a human hair), fine particles can be trapped deeply into the
lung cells producing various health hazards: asthmas, infection, cancer etc..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Sources of fine particles
include ashes and residues from all types of combustion activities (wood
burning, power plants, motor vehicles etc.) and certain industrial processes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Particles with diameters
between 2.5 and 10 µm are referred to as "coarse" particulate matter.
Sources of coarse particles include crushing or grinding operations, and dust
from paved or unpaved roads. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Other particles may be formed
in the air from the chemical change of gases. They are indirectly formed when
gases from burning fuels react with sunlight and water vapor. These can result
from fuel combustion in motor vehicles, at power plants, and in other
industrial processes.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A study for Air Pollution
Effects published by "<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/%20S1470-2045(13)70279-1">The Lancet</a>" in July 2013 assessed air pollution for
particulate matter with diameter of less than 10 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">m (PM10) & less than 2·5 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">m (PM2·5). It shows </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">that exposure of population to
particulate matter air pollution even at concentrations below the existing
EU air quality limit values for PM10 (40 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m³) and PM2·5 (25 </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">μ</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">g/m³) might increase the risk for lung
cancer.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">These EU air quality limit values are associated with API/PSI = 50 in Figure 2. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Roughly one out of three persons is at a higher risk of experiencng PM2.5 related health effects, mostly children with their bodies still developing and the elderly due to their lower resistance. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">People of all age active outdoors during physical activities are at increased risk because with increased air intake PM2.5 penetrate deeper into the more vulnerable part of the lungs. </span><br />
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Due to their deadly effect on human health it is urgent - as for EU and US- to include PM2.5 in the sub-index standards in Southeast Asia API/PSI readings</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">As we know that most API/PSI readings are mostly derived from the high value of PM10 sub-index, they have reciprocally the same "turning points" and it is easy to derive the value of PM10 from the API/PSI readings by using the PSI/API sub-index reciprocal linear relationship.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The following Figure 7 gives both values of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations respectively computed or read for South Singapore PSI (See: </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://app2.nea.gov.sg/anti-pollution-radiation-protection/air-pollution/psi/historical-psi-readings/year/2013/month/6/day/14">PSIHistorical readings</a>).</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">We can see that PM10 is mostly composed of 75-80% of PM2.5. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">This means that the coarse particulate are only 20-25% and - as we can see on Figure 2 above- that the value of the PM2.5 sub-index is much higher than the value of the PM10 sub-index.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">7</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : South Singapore PM10 & PM2.5 concentrations computed from
PSI or read</span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The following Figure 8 shows
that the “true” PSI - including the PM2.5 sub-index -is around 50-80% higher
than the official reading. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;">8</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> :
South</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Singapore official PSI without PM2.5 and PSI including PM2.5
sub-index <o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">On 20 -21 June 2013, </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">the “official” PSI as recorded by Singapore NEA was only 246 but the "</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">true value" of
the Pollutant Standards Index incorporating the more dangerous PM2.5 pollution was around 344. </span></div>
<span lang="EN-US"></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
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</span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">However, it
appears that in its communication with the media, Singapore NEA has already
made </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">the change, according to an article in the
<a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/haze-singapore-hits-new-high-psi-321-10pm-20130619">Straits Times</a> referring that Singapore Pollutant Standards Index "soared to 321 on 19 June
the worst reading in its history, the previous being 226 in 1997".<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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</span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If we keep in
mind that at the same time in Malaysia the highest readings - 746 in Muar, 487
in Ipoh and 443 in Melaka- were issued without any correction for PM2.5, the
general picture on the Southeast Asia pollution was reallly difficult to assess! <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So in order to inform as fairly as possible the population on Air Pollution </span></span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">health hazards,</span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">there is a urgent need to clarify this issue by incorporation-as in EU and US- the PM2.5 fine particulate matter
sub-indexes</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">into API / PSI air quality indexes used in Southeast Asia</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">. </span></span></div>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-4013215071504394482013-07-14T09:28:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:49:44.598-07:00Sumatra haze becoming a yearly recurring event with growing pollution level?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DCmMQ4cg1J8/UeLKjfEJozI/AAAAAAAABG8/nwq3N0623xQ/s1600/AFW23-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DCmMQ4cg1J8/UeLKjfEJozI/AAAAAAAABG8/nwq3N0623xQ/s640/AFW23-1.jpg" height="364" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Tahoma, sans-serif;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;
mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;
mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;
font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Tahoma, sans-serif;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;color:black;
mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;
mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Tahoma, sans-serif;"> : On Saturday, June 22, 2013, motorists make
their way through a town covered with a thick haze in Muar. <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/se-asia/story/haze-update-huge-spike-air-quality-index-muar-20130623">FILE PHOTO: AP</a></span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In South Peninsular Malaysia and
Singapore island, the last Sumatra’s smoke haze spell – 23 days from 10 June to 2 July
2013- was definitely more serious than the last year occurrence, while haze’s
pollution could still return anytime during the coming months. </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">A huge amount of information
was published by various media during this period. But sometimes the true
meaning of air pollution information issued and their outcome in terms of
public health were difficult to understand and - to say it bluntly- a
little hazy!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">We would like to return on
this period and look at all data issued on air quality by Department of Environment
(DOE) in Malaysia, National Environment Agency (EPA) in Singapore and ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">How are established both Air
Pollution Index (API) in Malaysia and Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) in Singapore?</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">All figures concerning air pollution index and sub-indices
</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">in Malaysia or Singapore are established
following rules very similar to the US Air Quality Index </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">(see AQI <a href="http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqi-technical-assistance-document-sep2012.pdf">Technical Assistance document </a></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqi-technical-assistance-document-sep2012.pdf">for the Reporting of </a></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.epa.gov/airnow/aqi-technical-assistance-document-sep2012.pdf">the Air Quality Index AQI</a>)</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For the US AQI, first specific sub-indexes
are separately computed concerning the 6 following pollutants:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(1)- Particulate matter smaller than 10µm (PM10 ), <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(1bis)- Particulate matter smaller than 2.5µm (PM2.5), <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(2)- Ozone (O3), <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(3)- Carbon monoxide (CO),<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(4)- Sulfur dioxide (SO2) ,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(5)- Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For each pollutant a common “grid”
of communication relationship is introduced, with a growing scale grid and associated pollution level where: 0-50 is a “good air quality”, 51-100 is a pollution “moderate”, 101-150 a pollution
“unhealthy for specific groups”, 151-200
is a pollution ”Unhealthy”, 201-300 is “very unhealthy”, and 301-500 is “Hazardous”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Then each sub-index is
computed and the highest sub-index value is the US AQI value for the location
and the time concerned.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The only difference concerning
Malaysia’s API and Singapore’s PSI in relation with US AQI is the PM2.5
pollutant. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In fact (1)) and (1bis) pollutants are closely interrelated because particulate
matter smaller than 2.5µm are also smaller than 10µm. However PM2.5 are also much
more unhealthy and as such should have a higher “grid” value! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In the case of Malaysia, PM2.5 seems to be measured but is not published.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In the case of Singapore , PM2.5 is measured and published with the PSI
index. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">API & PSI values are
computed based on the average concentrations of air pollutants PM10, O3,
CO, SO2 and NO2 expressed in µg/m3 or in ppm. The average time period is pollutant specific: daily for PM, 8h for CO, hourly O3, SO2 and NO2. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">During the haze spell in Malaysia the PM10 sub-index value due to the high PM10 concentration is the highest compared with the other pollutants and this determines
the API readings. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Nevertheless by the late
afternoon or early evening, usually ozone concentration is high and dominates
the API readings in some areas. Under the sunlight influence, nitrogen dioxide and volatile organic compounds emitted from motor vehicle exhaust
and industry react to form ozone in the earth's surface. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Peninsular Malaysia was more
severely affected than Singapore</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In both countries the monitored pollutants and sub-indexes are the same and so the comparison is meaningful. </span><br />
<br />
The following Figures 2 &
3 give the API readings in Malaysia:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z1JSGU49abU/UeLNZAYH0YI/AAAAAAAABIA/vQRSnfld0ZI/s1600/AFW23-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Z1JSGU49abU/UeLNZAYH0YI/AAAAAAAABIA/vQRSnfld0ZI/s640/AFW23-4.png" height="440" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : API index from 22 June to 2 July 2013 on 11 locations in Johor, Malaka, N. Sembilan and South Pahang (see <a href="http://apims.doe.gov.my/apims/hourly3.php?date=2013-7-2">DOE Malaysia)</a></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Johor (Kota Tinggi, Larkin Lama, Muar, Pasir Gudang ), Melaka (Bandaraya, Bukit Rambai) and Negeri Sembilan (Port Dickson) were especially polluted with the highest API reading ever seen in Johor Muar (756 API on 23 June), as explained my Malaysian Environment Minister in <a href="http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/malaysia-declares-state/721254.html">Asia Pacific Channel News.</a></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DLB1bmPOBvk/UeLLP9jZluI/AAAAAAAABHM/ync-NmxmRBo/s1600/AFW23-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DLB1bmPOBvk/UeLLP9jZluI/AAAAAAAABHM/ync-NmxmRBo/s640/AFW23-3.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : API index reading on 13
locations in Perak, Selangor, Kuala Lumpur
and Terengganu (see <a href="http://apims.doe.gov.my/apims/hourly3.php?date=2013-7-2">DOE Malaysia</a>)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Selangor (Banting , Pelabuhan
Kelang) and Terengganu (Kemaman) were
especially polluted with the highest reading in Selangor Pelabuhan Kelang
(487 API on 27 June).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The Figure 4 gives the PSI
reading in Singapore:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OfxuRvEF274/UeLLqNFJDQI/AAAAAAAABHY/-VGRqgEI2m8/s1600/AFW23-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OfxuRvEF274/UeLLqNFJDQI/AAAAAAAABHY/-VGRqgEI2m8/s640/AFW23-6.png" height="424" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : PSI readings on 5
locations in Singapore (see <a href="http://app2.nea.gov.sg/anti-pollution-radiation-protection/air-pollution/psi">NEA Singapore</a>) </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Generally speaking, Singapore
was less polluted than Malaysia: around 5500 cumulated readings unhealthy for
special group on 23 days (at 7am, 12am, 4pm) compared to 7500 cumulated reading
in Malaysia during the same period (7am, 11am, 5pm). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">South Singapore was especially polluted, with
the reading (PSI=246 on 22 June). The highest points in Peninsular Malaysia being 400-700.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
So if we take off the "good readings" and look also at the highest readings, Malaysia was at least "twice more polluted" than Singapore during this haze spell.</div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Moreover the 2013 haze spell (in June and up to 15 July) was much more severe
than 2012 June and July occurrence, but with
a hotspot count very similar</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Compared to the 2012 June &
July haze in Malaysia: the spell is much stronger and only located on South peninsular
Malaysia .<br />
<br />
In 2012 there was a 4000 cumulated reading (at 7am, 11am, 5am) and the maximum
readings were in Sarawak (API=247 on 27 June 2012), Selangor (API=147 on 15 June 2012), with Penang having a 5 day haze spell
(API=105 on 20 June 2012). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">
</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In 2012, the cumulative
hotspot count for Sumatra while being among the 2 highest of the last 8 years
is in line with last year count progression (see following Figures 5, 6 & 7). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">So the haze in becoming more or less a yearly
recurring hazard with pollution growing each year!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5sLRdv-b8_A/UeLMAZ_d5sI/AAAAAAAABHg/Angn8zI-Z74/s1600/AFW23-11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5sLRdv-b8_A/UeLMAZ_d5sI/AAAAAAAABHg/Angn8zI-Z74/s640/AFW23-11.png" height="362" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure 5</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Cumulative hotspot count for Sumatra</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white;"> detected in the ASEAN region for 2006 to 30th June 2013</span><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="text-align: -webkit-left;">; </span>the
counts are based on the hotspots detected by the NOAA-18 Satellite</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In Sumatra the open burning areas seemed to be more
located over the Riau Province in
Central Sumatra, while last year the
hot spots were coming up to Kualuh Hilir in North Sumatra. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This combined by the direction of winds have
kept the Northern states of Perak and Pulau Penang less affected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The international uproar have
been so severe – especially from Singapore- that the Indonesian Government had
announced its decision to ratify the“2002 Asean Treaty on Transboundary Haze
Pollution signed by all 9 other ASEAN countries. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7NF8W8DCEx4/UeLMgA6zBuI/AAAAAAAABHs/vClVvt1i1gk/s1600/AFW23-5_21+June.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7NF8W8DCEx4/UeLMgA6zBuI/AAAAAAAABHs/vClVvt1i1gk/s640/AFW23-5_21+June.png" height="458" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">6</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Regional haze map on 21
June 2013 </span></h4>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NXkak36Zg5g/UeLMxesB2dI/AAAAAAAABH4/tt3BPMYyq2c/s1600/AFW23-9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NXkak36Zg5g/UeLMxesB2dI/AAAAAAAABH4/tt3BPMYyq2c/s640/AFW23-9.png" height="442" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">7</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Regional haze map on 23
June 2013</span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-15785275143399136202013-06-28T18:24:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:50:38.176-07:00Two or three wheeled Motorcycles are a major issue for congestion, pollution and road safety in most Asia’s cities <h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<b style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bNFN-orBakw/Uc41V1CphtI/AAAAAAAABD8/X-3-qYMxsUE/s652/AFW22-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bNFN-orBakw/Uc41V1CphtI/AAAAAAAABD8/X-3-qYMxsUE/s400/AFW22-1.jpg" height="278" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> : A family riding a motorcycle in Cambodia</span> </span></span></h4>
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</span></b></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></h4>
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Two and three wheeled motorcycles are mostly located in Asia and used for
private household mobility or public transport </span></span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In 2010, the current worldwide
motorcycle populaton was around 450mil, on which 77% was located in Asia
Pacific, 8% in both Europe and America, 4% in Middle East & Central Asia and only 3% in Africa. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">During the past period 2002-2010, the worldwide fleet increased annually by 9.5%. As we can see in Figure 2, the
biggest increases of the motorcycle stock by region were South America, Asia
Pacific, while </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">Africa, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Middle East</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;">, North
America and West Europe were lagging
behind.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;"><b style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"></span></b></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-576rA4fVrkA/Uc41UjoxJUI/AAAAAAAABDs/nMnteYR5Pu0/s1005/AFW22-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-576rA4fVrkA/Uc41UjoxJUI/AAAAAAAABDs/nMnteYR5Pu0/s640/AFW22-2.png" height="476" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">: Evolution of 2-3 wheeler stocks
over worldwide regions</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In emerging and developing
countries, 2-3 wheelers are mostly cheap mode of transport used for household mobility with low
or medium power mopeds, motorcycles and scooters (<150cc).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">For developed countries –especially in North
America- it is more a recreational vehicle
with higher power capacity (500cc and more). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In 2010, the 10 highest worldwide
2-3 wheelers rate ownership were located mainly in Asian countries (see Figure 3): Taiwan
(642 units for 1,000 people), Vietnam (362), Malaysia (332) and Indonesia/Thailand
(251), the others being Uruguay, Italy, Dominican Republic and Lao (130-280).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">China (77) and India (68) were
ranking only the 22<sup>nd</sup> and 26<sup>th</sup> with Japan 27<sup>th</sup>
(65) together with 4 European countries, Brazil and Colombia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0EkUcarlFoc/Uc41ViyaDnI/AAAAAAAABD4/kSnoo1ZhEvU/s887/AFW22-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0EkUcarlFoc/Uc41ViyaDnI/AAAAAAAABD4/kSnoo1ZhEvU/s640/AFW22-3.png" height="640" width="521" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;">: The first 2-3 wheeler stocks and ownership rates over worldwide
regions (2010 figures from <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html">WHO road safety 2013</a>)<o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">But due to their higher populations among the 10 biggest worldwide motorcycle stocks in 2010 we find 8 Asian Pacific countries.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Among the first 5 biggest, 3
countries China, Indonesia and Vietnam have registered very high stock increases over the last 8 years around 15-30% annually ( see Figure 4). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_w1fl2E-fBM/Uc41WRDWHbI/AAAAAAAABEM/KSlHYAGZikY/s839/AFW22-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_w1fl2E-fBM/Uc41WRDWHbI/AAAAAAAABEM/KSlHYAGZikY/s640/AFW22-4.png" height="640" width="602" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US"> : Evolution of the biggest 2-3
wheelers stocks in 2010 over worldwide regions (</span></span><span style="font-size: small;">2002 figures from</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><a href="http://www.worldmapper.org/display.php?selected=32" style="font-size: medium;">Worldmapper</a><span style="font-size: small;">)</span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Why are 2
& 3 wheeled motorcycles so prevalent inside Asian Pacific mobility modes ?</span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Motor vehicles due to their low initial cost
overwhelmingly dominate the market for ground mobility of passengers and
freight in developing countries. Bus lines, trains and rapid transit systems in
urban areas are less frequent than what exists in developed countries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moreover inside the developing countries’ motor
vehicle market: mopeds, 2-3 wheelers or scooters have the lion's share as
compared to 4 wheelers passenger cars, light and heavy trucks or
bus. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There is a strong upfront advantage in term of cost....:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The basic advantage is cost efficiency and lower
weight especially with two-stroke engines delivering high torque and greater power
output at a very low cost. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In India during 2011, the range of prices of
motorcycles of 75-125 cc category – the highest selling category – was around 48,500
Rs (850$) and for 125-250 cc around 81,500 Rs(1,300$) (see <a href="http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Iyer_two-three-wheelers_India_August2012.pdf">Narayan V. Iyer, August,2012</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As concerns congestion, two or three wheelers offer high maneuverability at a low speed, in narrow lanes & crowded urbazined areas, not to mention the need of smaller parking
areas. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moreover in Taiwan, Europe and Malaysia - as we can see today
in congested Penang Island- there is a surge of two wheelers among car owners as an additionally mode of
mobility.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Concerning the issue of 3-wheelers reducing urban
congestion maybe is it questionable. For instance in Bangkok the traffic at peak
hour could really become chaotic. There is a need to rationalize organization
of road and intersection designs with the ban of three wheelers from highways!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">....But
afterwards there are huge recurrent pollution externalities:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There are higher pollutions by excessive hydrocarbons (HC)
and particulate matter (PM)) emissions from two-stroke engines as compared to four-stroke. Why?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The two-stroke exhaust
gas is forced from the cylinder by the pressure of the incoming charge. A significant
part –around 20-30%- of the fresh charge escapes unburned. This coupled with
the tendency to misfire at low load results with high HC emissions.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil lubricant in two- stroke engines needs to be mixed in the fuel to lubricate bearing and piston and this is thus a major
source of smoke and PM. Many drivers add more lubricant than necessary to
protect the engine. But the pollution effect of much higher emissions far
outweighs the benefit to the vehicle owner!</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The drawbacks
of the two-stroke engines are even made worse when used on a 3 wheelers. Such
vehicles are underpowered so the engine usually operates near wide open
throttle producing huge fuel consumptions and high emissions.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">As a result, motorcycle emissions from a single two stroke can exceed those of a 3 passenger
cars or those from a heavy duty diesel truck! Emissions from 2 & 3 wheelers
represent the most serious problems for developing cities.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 35.4pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Three wheelers taxis are perceived as less compliant
with traffic regulations and more accident prone than 4-wheels passenger vehicles.
Such motorcycle’s dependency might lead to the exclusion or more adapted public
transports such as bus. In Delhi
(India), Denpasar (Bali) and Hanoi (Vietnam) less than 5% of public transport
are operated by bus.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Today, the general consensus is that the limits of
2-stroke technology have largely been reached in all classes, and therefore
2012 was the dawn of a technically relevant new era, with four stroke
motorcycles filling all fields of the motorcycle market.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">For the two wheelers, the shift from two-stroke to four-stroke
engines begun around 2000 and gained further momentum in 2005- 2010. The private
user’s shift was not only to meet the emission standards but also to change to more
fuel efficient 4-stroke. But in India the relative share of 2-stroke engines is
still around 6% of the total powered two-wheelers sales in the country (see Narayan
V. Iyer, August, 2012).</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For its three-wheelers, Bajaj developed a four-stroke
engine with a program to stop production of the two-stroke. Unfortunately, the
four-stroke rickshaw did not receive a favorable response from the market.
Bajaj, therefore, had to restart the production of the popular 2-stroke. The poor
market acceptance was attributed to the profiles of three-wheeler customers who
need to earn a living from the vehicle and would not take the risk of investing
in a new type of vehicle, with which they are not familiar, and at a higher
price too (see ibid.).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Further on, as far as the vehicle stock is concerned, the low cost of repairs
and the huge cost of the renewal </span>in developing countries leads to a very low turnover of the 2-3 wheels population which means that the two-stroke
engines recurring pollution externalities might remain still present for a long time.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">2010 registered
vehicles breakdown over countries </span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">If we want to assess the motorcycle’s
dependency throughout the various Asian Pacific countries, it is fascinating to
look at the rate of 2-3 wheelers in relation to the passenger 4-wheeled cars.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The Figure 5 below shows (
logarithmic vertical scale) that Vietnam is far ahead of all other countries and
that the cars are almost completely driven out of the country!</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Malaysia is the hinging point
between developing and developed countries.There is an automotive car industry
with Proton and Perodua and 3-wheelers are banned for public transport. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">All countries on the left hand side from Malaysia have 3-wheelers taxis, except China and Taiwan.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br /></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4EeLqx2krZc/Uc41W7FlXBI/AAAAAAAABEU/EhrrLXAj96k/s1313/AFW22-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-4EeLqx2krZc/Uc41W7FlXBI/AAAAAAAABEU/EhrrLXAj96k/s640/AFW22-5.png" height="400" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 5: Rate of 2-3 wheelers as compared to passenger cars in Asia
Pacifiic decreasing from left to right</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b></b></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gR_EMCXqCZQ/Uc41XUyyeDI/AAAAAAAABEc/roy8VBY0r4k/s1287/AFW22-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gR_EMCXqCZQ/Uc41XUyyeDI/AAAAAAAABEc/roy8VBY0r4k/s640/AFW22-6.png" height="380" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">6</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;">: Total vehicle breakdown in 2010
by countries, decreasing income from left to right </span></span><span style="font-size: small;">(</span><a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html" style="font-size: medium;">fromWHO road safety status 2013</a><span style="font-size: small;">)</span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b></b></div>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NN0xrPH91Oc/Uc41X9GTpCI/AAAAAAAABEg/AgbVAFh1oWY/s1302/AFW22-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NN0xrPH91Oc/Uc41X9GTpCI/AAAAAAAABEg/AgbVAFh1oWY/s640/AFW22-7.png" height="396" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">7</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;"> : Vehicle breakdown per
1,000 people in 2010 by countries, decreasing income from left to right (<a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html">fromWHO road safety status 2013</a>)</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></h4>
</div>
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<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Unlike the pattern for passenger cars, the ownership growth pattern for motorcycles
varies greatly in different countries.</span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The growth of motorcycles
could be influenced by three sets of factors (see "Vehicle China pollution by 2050" </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><a href="http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/32000/32100/32149/fulltext.pdf">Huo, Hong and al.</a>):</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(a) Economical factors: in
China motorcycle ownership in household with per capita income below 2,500$
rises as per capita income increases. However, when per capita income reaches 3,000
to 3,500$, the growth rate appears to slow, reaching a saturation level. Also
at this income level, car purchases begin to increase rapidly, suggesting that
a switch from two wheelers to passenger cars occurs in urban families as income
rises.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(b) Geographical factors:
ownership tends to increase as per capita GDP grows, except in several
geographically unique countries and areas, such as the Philippines, which is
archipelagic, and Singapore, which is a city state. In China, because
geographical features vary dramatically throughout the country, two wheelers ownership
in southern regions is higher than in the northern regions because the warmer
southern climate makes riding motorcycles more comfortable. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">(c) Policies: Major Chinese cities thrive to limit, and even ban, the registration and use of motorcycles in urban areas. </span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure 8 tends to show that the motorcycle ownership's relationship against per capiat GDP is more or less hyperbolic, due to the shift from two-wheelers to passenger cars when per capita income reaches 3,500$, with the notable exception of Taiwan which is in a unique position.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"></span></b></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xNeMRNsjXoY/Uc41YUmTMOI/AAAAAAAABEo/JnY-WRrjY7Y/s1416/AFW22-8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xNeMRNsjXoY/Uc41YUmTMOI/AAAAAAAABEo/JnY-WRrjY7Y/s640/AFW22-8.png" height="456" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 8: Relation of motorcycles' ownership against per capita GDP growth (all 2-3 wheelers figures from <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html">WHO road safety report</a> 2013, except Taiwan) </span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<h4>
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Road safety fatalities</span></b></h4>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The overall global road
traffic fatality rate worldwide is 18 per 100,000 people. However, low and middle-income
countries have the highest annual road traffic fatality rates, at 18.3-20.1 per
100,000, while the rate in high-income countries is the lowest, at 8.7 per 100 000.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">But in Asia Pacific countries
the safety achievements are better with respectively 7.1 and 8.2 rates per 100,000 people for low & middle income or high income countries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">However the worse performing
countries are Malaysia and Thailand (see Figure above). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In low and middle Asian
Pacific countries 33% of the fatalities are made to motorcyclists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The associated cost of the DGP
lost from these fatalities is estimated to be around 3%.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><b style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"></span></b></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i_NvSc5Cp3A/Uc41Yyx9d4I/AAAAAAAABE0/fnVpNiE6gSA/s1301/AFW22-9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i_NvSc5Cp3A/Uc41Yyx9d4I/AAAAAAAABE0/fnVpNiE6gSA/s640/AFW22-9.png" height="426" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div align="center" class="MsoCaption">
<h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 9: Traffic death fatalities over Asia Pacific countries ( from <a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html">WHO Road Safety 2013report</a>)</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ans5idpYjsg/UdECaGQS2sI/AAAAAAAABFE/IoBHRSjlUD0/s1242/AFW22-10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ans5idpYjsg/UdECaGQS2sI/AAAAAAAABFE/IoBHRSjlUD0/s640/AFW22-10.png" height="430" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 10: Traffic death fatalities over main Asia Pacific regions (</span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">from </span><a href="http://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2013/en/index.html" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">WHO Road Safety 2013report</a><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-17130160925114095392013-05-27T21:03:00.001-07:002014-10-03T01:51:46.559-07:00Motor vehicle growth policy is a key factor to rein in Asian megacities congestion and air pollution<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-01iDUWNTHFQ/UaQkzSXN_JI/AAAAAAAABAc/haSIoXV5aAQ/s1600/AFW21-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-01iDUWNTHFQ/UaQkzSXN_JI/AAAAAAAABAc/haSIoXV5aAQ/s640/AFW21-1.jpg" height="426" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:
115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:
Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:FR;mso-fareast-language:
EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri;mso-fareast-theme-font:
minor-latin;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";
mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
FR;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA'><span style='mso-element:
field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"> : Congestion may change the direction of
auto industry of China (from <a href="http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20101024000016&cid=1205">Want China Times</a>). </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">A more balance mobility’s
footprint is a condition of a sustainable Asia Pacific increase</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Mobility is composed of the
various services and means available for moving persons and goods. Rail, Road,
Air and Maritime are the four main mobility modes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The dominant export-oriented development
model in the Asia-Pacific region over the past 15 years allowed considerable
growth while the movement of raw materials, sub-assemblies and finished
products were important issues of global competition. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">This is also true with the
development now planned for the Asia Pacific region, where growth could become
more qualitative, less polluting, internally oriented with the aim of reducing
traffic congestion, improving short and medium distances transports.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">As explained in our previous
post dated 31 Jan 2013, Asian Pacific countries were the fastest growing worldwide
areas during the past 15 years. Urbanization was both the condition and the
main result of this development. But Asian </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">mega cities development is unprecedented in history
and presents a double-headed challenge:
global change -global risk.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin: 9.95pt 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Megacity's system could easily spin out of control with major
environmental problems such as power blackout, traffic congestion and air
pollution. Jakarta car congestion costs 5.4 bil $ annually while increasing
poor air quality. With business as usual conditions, pollution would increase
2-3 folds on 1990-2020 due to population growth, industrialization and
increased vehicle use. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Traffic congestion and
transport pollution have a huge cost in terms of health hazards, lost of hours
spent in transport congestion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: #fafafa; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin: 9.95pt 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">As we have explained in our last post outdoor particulate matter air
pollution in 2010 contributed to 1,270,000 premature deaths in Asia East (China
& North Korea), which is about 40% of the global worldwide total amounting
to 3,220,000 deaths. The burden of mobility is huge with the pollution of
motorcars and motorcycles in congested Chinese megacities <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Cluster description of Asian Pacific countries</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To study the 24 Asia-Pacific countries, we used-as in
our last post- a grouping in 5 clusters geographically, politically and
economically homogeneous (see Figure 2): <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia
East (China, Korea Dem. Rep.);</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Asian
Pacific high income (Brunei, Japan, Korea Rep., Singapore);</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia
South (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan);</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia
Southeast (8 other ASEAN countries + Maldives, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste);</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Australasia
(Australia, New Zealand). </span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">
</span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SR8WcU-QfuM/UaQk0VjCSAI/AAAAAAAABAk/JduqLjH50sI/s1600/AFW21-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-SR8WcU-QfuM/UaQk0VjCSAI/AAAAAAAABAk/JduqLjH50sI/s640/AFW21-2.jpg" height="622" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : The 5 clusters from the 24
Asian Pacific countries</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In each cluster various countries have similar GDP per
capita figures. The 5 cluster have altogether a 3,793 mil population - about
55% of the world population (6,896)- but with dissimilar land areas and
population outcomes by cluster (see Figures 3 to 6 below). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the three most populous areas – Asia East, South and
Southeast- sustainability at stake is to continue rising income, while reducing
ecological footprint (CO2 emissions, water and air pollution), and improved
quality of life in large urban centers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-N88ACBZ1TN4/UaQk1WpBuJI/AAAAAAAABBA/1QU9FWas9Xc/s1600/AFW21-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-N88ACBZ1TN4/UaQk1WpBuJI/AAAAAAAABBA/1QU9FWas9Xc/s400/AFW21-5.png" height="240" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Distribution of
population (from World Bank Data)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5tBdz10R2SM/UaQk1i5tW_I/AAAAAAAABBE/lN2AmVFhtMQ/s1600/AFW21-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5tBdz10R2SM/UaQk1i5tW_I/AAAAAAAABBE/lN2AmVFhtMQ/s640/AFW21-6.png" height="448" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Distribution of population
density</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Each cluster has a major hub country such as China
(98% of Asia East population), Japan (69% of Asia Pacific High income), India
(78% of Asia South) or Australia (85% of Australasia). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But within the South East Asia, the situation is more
open: Indonesia is the largest country (39%), but Malaysia and Thailand have
the highest GDP per capita.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CTkpAAiuurw/UaQk0zh6bpI/AAAAAAAABAw/HbSUb1v-tgo/s1600/AFW21-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CTkpAAiuurw/UaQk0zh6bpI/AAAAAAAABAw/HbSUb1v-tgo/s640/AFW21-3.png" height="460" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">5</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Distribution of GDP per
capita, high income and high middle income countries (from World Bank Data)<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0mrnFmHnnLA/UaQk1FsMoOI/AAAAAAAABA4/IrKVglPSvbk/s1600/AFW21-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0mrnFmHnnLA/UaQk1FsMoOI/AAAAAAAABA4/IrKVglPSvbk/s640/AFW21-4.png" height="414" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">6</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : Distribution of GDP per
capita, low midle income and low income countries (from World Bank Data)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Passenger car ownership is a key factor</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In many urban areas car private ownership is an
important status symbol. The relationship between household and car ownership
is mostly based on the income level.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We know that the relation between passenger car
ownership against per capita GDP is a S-shape growth curve (see “<a href="http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/32000/32100/32149/fulltext.pdf">Vehicle ChinaPollution by 2050 Huo, Hong & alia</a>”). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Initially car ownership growth are slow while costs
are high as compared to income, followed by a period of rapid uptake growth,
then later by a slowing of uptake as saturation levels are reached.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
S-curve<span class="apple-converted-space"> or<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span>Gompertz function is a
type of<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">mathematical model<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>used to describe the population in a confined space, as
birth rates first increase and then slow as resource limits are reached.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the following Figures 7 & 8: the passenger car ownership per 1,000
people is plotted against per capita GDP in Asian Pacific countries (all data are
from the World Bank on 2000-2011). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SeFFrs24miI/UaQk2ayoz6I/AAAAAAAABBU/jV6-Nka05I4/s1600/AFW21-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SeFFrs24miI/UaQk2ayoz6I/AAAAAAAABBU/jV6-Nka05I4/s640/AFW21-7.png" height="416" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">7</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : “S” shape growth curve
relation of passenger car’s ownership against per Capita GDP growth (all
figures from <a href="http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx">World Bank Data</a>)</span></h4>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In Asia Pacific- if we except Singapore which is a
megacity country- growth patterns can be grouped into three categories:</span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The North American type pattern – scarce population
and huge distance- where saturation
level is around 550 vehicles per 1,000 people when per capita GDP is higher
than $20,000, is followed here by Australia and New Zealand.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The European type pattern- denser population and
compact urban development – where saturation level is around 450 vehicles per
1,000 people, is followed here by Japan, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand and even
China.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The third pattern represented by Korea Rep, and some European countries, such as Denmark, and Ireland, show an even smaller rate of motor vehicle ownership, with a saturation level relatively lower—about 350 vehicles per 1,000 people. In these countries this low saturation level is caused partly by the high population density and the extensive public transportation system.</span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cDR2ggU9VlI/UaQk27uspuI/AAAAAAAABBg/Sm2QDtDvNCA/s1600/AFW21-8_zoom.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cDR2ggU9VlI/UaQk27uspuI/AAAAAAAABBg/Sm2QDtDvNCA/s640/AFW21-8_zoom.png" height="436" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:11.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">8</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
11.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> :Same “</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">S” shape growth curve relation
with a zooming on low and middle development countries (all figures from <a href="http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx">WorldBank Data</a>)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">What might be the evolution of car ownership in the coming years?</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The passenger cars’ ownership saturation level is a key factor
in estimating the total motor vehicle population </span>growth<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In particular, (see Figure 9) based on a continuation
of the GDP per capita growth such as during 1900-2011:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gazz-5_ZNxE/Ualyt7ALjPI/AAAAAAAABDU/prOu9hmtJUc/s1600/AFW21-9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gazz-5_ZNxE/Ualyt7ALjPI/AAAAAAAABDU/prOu9hmtJUc/s640/AFW21-9.png" height="300" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;">9</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 11pt;"> : China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand Prevision of Fleet passenger car fleet in 2030</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">China’s passenger car stock might increase seven-fold, to 380 mil</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Thailand might increase three-fold, Indonesia one 1/2- fold .</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Malaysia might increase one 1/2-fold and might be approaching the saturated level of 450
passenger car per 1,000 people .</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.econ.nyu.edu/dept/courses/gately/DGS_Vehicle%20Ownership_2007.pdf">Dargay and Gately</a> assumed a saturation level of 850
(all vehicles) per 1,000 people and 620 cars per 1,000 people for the 26
countries (including China) that they studied . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">However, <a href="http://www.uvm.edu/giee/pubpdfs/Kobos_2003_Contemporary_Economic_Policy.pdf">Kobos et al</a>. believe that it was impossible
for China—a highly populated country—to reach such a high saturation level.
Instead they propose a saturation level of 292 passenger vehicles per 1,000
people. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://www.bath.ac.uk/e-journals/jtep/pdf/Volume_XXV11_No_1_51-67.pdf">Button et al.</a> set a range of 300 to 450 cars per 1,000
people for developing countries such as China. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We think as expressed by Kobos that the saturation
level of the third pattern (curve min) in the range of 290-300 passenger
vehicles should be more adapted. As done by Kobos & al. we need to examine the car ownership at the provincial level (see Figure 10). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Demand for vehicle trend to mirror the megacities
pattern concentration of wealth (see Figure 10), contrary to developed countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Increase in passenger vehicle will place serious strain
on land use, urban air pollution, and oil requirements. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kh79KjZX_RY/UaQk0j8p9JI/AAAAAAAABAs/wgqoQsmF67Q/s1600/AFW21-10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kh79KjZX_RY/UaQk0j8p9JI/AAAAAAAABAs/wgqoQsmF67Q/s640/AFW21-10.jpg" height="540" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">10</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Passenger vehicle per
1,000 people by Chinese province, 2015 (from Kobos & al. 2003) <o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China and others Asian countries
rapidly evolving taste for automobile, all point towards a more integrated transport
policy where other factors such as access
to public transport, traffic limitations at peak hours, tax on fuel or vehicle to
compensate traffic congestion externalities might be discussed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Innovative mobility- new type of car and rapid transit system -new investments, more stringent transport regulations and better law enforcement conditions are the conditions of a sustainable development. Poor policies in these areas may entail growing ecological footprint with health and environmental issues. </span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-76973825184117735012013-05-08T01:23:00.002-07:002014-10-03T01:52:52.012-07:00China & North Korea: ambient particulate matter air pollution contributed to 1,270, 000 premature deaths in 2010 or about 40% of global worldwide risk <div style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3SlEjIVGZwc/UaRrT6kFHQI/AAAAAAAABB0/Wk4KxfUo550/s1600/AFW20-1bis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3SlEjIVGZwc/UaRrT6kFHQI/AAAAAAAABB0/Wk4KxfUo550/s640/AFW20-1bis.jpg" height="427" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;">Figure 1: A very smoggy day in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 13, 2013 (f<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/beijing-warns-residents-off-charts-smog-035040614.html">rom Yahoo News</a>)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Industries,
cars and trucks fuel or biomass combustion emit complex mixtures of air
pollutants, many of which are harmful to health. Of all of these pollutants,
fine particulate matter (PM) pollution has the greatest effect on human health.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Most
sources of emissions are mobiles motorcars, motorcycles and stationary sources
such as power plants. Moreover some PM pollution is issued from fire of forest
biomass exacerbated by global warming (see my 14 Sep 2012 post on Sumatra open
fires).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Fine
particulate matter is associated with a broad spectrum of acute and chronic
illness, such as lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Worldwide,
it is estimated to cause about 8% of lung cancer deaths,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">5% of cardiopulmonary
deaths and about 3% of respiratory infection deaths (see <a href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GlobalHealthRisks_report_full.pdf">WHO 2009 Global health risk report</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Particulate
matter pollution is an environmental health problem that affects people
worldwide, but middle-income countries are disproportionately more concerned by
this burden.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The
Global Burden of Diseases 2010 report methodology</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study (<a href="http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease">GBD 2010</a>)
published in Dec 2012 by The Lancet, is the single largest and most detailed
scientific effort ever conducted to quantify levels and trends in health. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It is
a global effort with 488 authors from 50 countries, including 26 low- and
middle-income countries, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
(IHME) at the University of Washington. </span><span style="font-family: inherit; text-align: center;">GBD
2010 constitutes a unique platform to compare the magnitude of diseases,
injuries, and risk factors across age groups, sexes, countries, regions, and time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">PM
pollution of fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5µm concentration in the
ambient air (PM2.5 expressed in µg/m3) is a useful indicator to the risk
associated to an exposure of mixture of pollutant from diverse sources: transportation emissions, windblown dust,
ashes from burning of biomass or coal from power plants.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
TM5 simulation model has been used to measure the pollutants level from
satellite observations and ground observations. TM5 is a complex 3-dimensional
global atmospheric model which simulates the concentrations of the various
atmospheric trace gases, such as greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20)), chemically active species (e.g. ozone
(O3)), and aerosols.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Existing
studies cover mostly small concentration (up to 30 µg/m3) while much higher
concentration have been recorded in Asian cities and elsewhere. The relation
between health hazards and concentration is probably nonlinear.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Relative
risk estimation of associated mortalities are mainly for the following outcome:
ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease, acute lower respiratory tract infection etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Each
risk factor is associated with a cluster of disease outcome that may cause
death. Inversely each disease could proceed from a cluster of risks. Smoking
and PM pollution are 2 different risks but which outcome diseases are very similar.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Asia
Pacific: ambient PM air pollution impacts on health </span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Outdoor PM air pollution in 2010 (see Figure
2) contributed to 1,270, 000 premature deaths in low and middle income East Asia countries (China & North Korea),
which is about 40% of the global worldwide total amounting to 3,220,000 deaths. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">This is equivalent to the loss of 25 mil healthy years of life in China and North Korea while it is the 4</span><sup style="font-family: inherit;">th</sup><span style="font-family: inherit;"> most important health risk in this area.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ntHz5GFO9TY/UahjlP51NzI/AAAAAAAABC8/Dl26mC8eYmE/s1600/AFW20-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ntHz5GFO9TY/UahjlP51NzI/AAAAAAAABC8/Dl26mC8eYmE/s640/AFW20-2.png" height="356" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Asia Pacific death counts from PM air pollution over 1990- 2010 (with Australasia too small to be seen)</span></h4>
<div>
<br /></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In others low and middle income countries, PM
pollution contributed to 767,000 and 164,000 premature deaths respectively in
South and Southeast Asia (see Figure 2 above).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">These death counts increased a lot over the last 20
years period for low and middle income countries: in East (+35% mostly China),
South (+43% mostly India, Bangladesh, Pakistan ) and Southeast Asia (+50%
mostly ASEAN countries). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In other high income countries, these death
counts are only 88,000 while increasing only moderately over 1990-2010: in Asia
Pacific (+12% Brunei, Japon, South Korea and Singapore) and Australasia (1779 +31% Australlia, New Zealand) and as a result </span>the death count is too small to be seen in Figure 2.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Asia
Pacific: ambient PM air pollution impacts compared between various Asian countries</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">From
the above figures we can derive the death counts per million people after
averaging by each cluster of countries’ populations over 1990-2010. The
following Figure 3 presents the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">death
counts from PM air pollution per million people over 1990-2010. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HGYcjhVn9Xc/UahjlUUxYLI/AAAAAAAABDA/9d3zOsNKRqA/s1600/AFW20-3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HGYcjhVn9Xc/UahjlUUxYLI/AAAAAAAABDA/9d3zOsNKRqA/s640/AFW20-3.png" height="380" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US">3</span><span lang="EN-US"> : Asia Pacific death counts from PM air pollution as part of the overall population over 1990-2010</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>For low and middle
income countries: </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">East and Southeast
Asia increased by 13-15% while South Asia keeps a fixe level. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">It means that the
2 first clusters of countries have been hugely impacted by PM air pollution,
while South Asia cluster of country is mostly the result of its population's size. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>For high income
countries: </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The death counts per
mil people increased very moderately +1% in Australasia and +4% in Asia Pacific
high income countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Asia
Pacific: ambient PM air pollution impact as part of the overall health risk</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">s</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
4 following Figures 4, 5, 6 & 7 present the 10 biggest health risks in 2010
as established by GBD 2010, with the 1990 values given as a comparison. The
horizontal scale is also the same.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In
all countries the first risk is the high blood pressure which is a
physiological disorder deriving from a disturbance of normal functioning at the
level of organs and systems within the human body. This risk level is about the
same 1,300 to 1,400 death counts per mil people for most countries, South Asia excepted.</span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span><span style="text-align: center;"><b>East Asia:</b></span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: center;">In
East Asian low and middle income countries, it should be highlighted that the
PM air pollution death count (918 ranked 4) is about the same as the smoking
habit’s outcome (1058 ranked 3): so the PM air pollution kills as much people
each year as the tobacco. </span><br />
<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span style="text-align: center;">The main risk in 1990 was the household pollution
from solid fuel which in 2010 is now ranked 5 after PM air pollution.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ihDyO7kAIl8/UahaPoDjAaI/AAAAAAAABCE/8s0azb1Q0mg/s1600/AFW20-4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ihDyO7kAIl8/UahaPoDjAaI/AAAAAAAABCE/8s0azb1Q0mg/s640/AFW20-4.png" height="419" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 20pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">The 10 highest health risks in East Asia low and middle income countries China and North Korea from <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease">GBD 2010</a></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b>South Asia:</b></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
In
South Asian countries the PM air pollution death counts (486 ranked 5) is much smaller than smoking risk (ranked 3),
the household air pollution is high (ranked 2) and the general profile is at a much lower level: the blood pressure death
counts (ranked 1) is nevertheless half the value of East Asian countries.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9WEJktayHxQ/UahaQPjFywI/AAAAAAAABCM/13LA0oKSs5g/s1600/AFW20-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9WEJktayHxQ/UahaQPjFywI/AAAAAAAABCM/13LA0oKSs5g/s640/AFW20-5.png" height="402" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h4 style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> :</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">The 10 highest health risks in South Asia low and middle income countries from <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease">GBD 2010</a></span></h4>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><b>Southeast Asia:</b></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In Southeast Asian countries: apart from the PM air
pollution, the 10 first risks’ profile are about the same as in East Asia for blood pressure,
smoking and diet problem but at a lower levels. The PM air pollution death count
is much smaller (270 ranked 9) or 3 times smaller than in East Asia. This is in relation with a more diverse grouping of countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UGkersft0AU/UahaQJfuTpI/AAAAAAAABCQ/mnuP04qe6bs/s1600/AFW20-6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UGkersft0AU/UahaQJfuTpI/AAAAAAAABCQ/mnuP04qe6bs/s640/AFW20-6.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Figure 6 :</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 16.363636016845703px;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The 10 highest health risks in Southeast Asia low and middle income countries from <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease">GBD 2010</a></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><b>High income Asia Pacific countries:</b></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In
high income Asia Pacific, apart from the first 2 risks: high blood pressure and
smoking, the remaining profile is different. New risks are more prevalent
associated with wealthy life style: physical inactivity and high sodium at a
highest level, high body mass index. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The PM air pollution death
count is smaller (486 ranked 9) or 2 times smaller than in East Asia.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xy3pbHGrtbQ/UaheoufilLI/AAAAAAAABCs/f9kkDX91Ipk/s1600/AFW20-7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Xy3pbHGrtbQ/UaheoufilLI/AAAAAAAABCs/f9kkDX91Ipk/s640/AFW20-7.png" height="420" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 7</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">The 10 highest health risks in high income Asia Pacific countries from <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease">GBD 2010</a></span></h4>
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jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-12198034463881739752013-04-15T10:50:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:53:38.158-07:00Rampant agribusiness malpractices- Part 4-2: Rape of Lojing Highlands (end)<div style="background: white; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QxWGkPqthTI/UWvNJ1ZIx9I/AAAAAAAAA8s/WRU7zZTW7lg/s1600/AFW17-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QxWGkPqthTI/UWvNJ1ZIx9I/AAAAAAAAA8s/WRU7zZTW7lg/s640/AFW17-1.jpg" height="430" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure 1 </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: #FEFEFE; color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">: A massive logging and land
clearing project in Lojing (see <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/wak1/488570252/in/pool-deforestation%7Cwak1">Flickr</a> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">)</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<h3>
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>A massive logging and land clearing project in Lojing, Kelantan State</b></span></span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure 1 is a picture of the Lojing Highlands. A lot of change are taking place in this atrea which have significant impacts on agribusiness and economic growth. Ten years ago these vegetable and flower farms were not all there </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(see “<a href="http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/2011/12/part-2-kelantan-ground-zero.html">Syeds out of the box</a>”)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Find here a video of the aerial view of Lojing settlement in Gua Musang</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> with forest clearing going on “<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfMTKCGiEkg&sns=em">You Tube</a>”.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The question that is being asked by Malaysian environment activists is why Kelantan is still clearing hundreds of thousands of hectares of forest with almost total disregard to the grave impacts on the human beings and wildlife that depend on these forests? Replacing forest with LCTs is destroying biodiversity (see “<a href="http://rubberforests.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/the-death-of-sungai-legid/">Rubber Forests</a>”).</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As explained before: land, forestry, agriculture and rivers are State matters. Therefore the Federal Government cannot do much but provide advice. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But clearly, all this “advice” is useless and Kelantan has flouted almost every single well-intentioned key policy made at the Federal level as explained before. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This clearing is taking place possibly without EIA as alleged by BN/UMNO. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The allegation, however, is made where this same political party may still have endorsed this project when it was in power in Kelantan and has not been exemplary while regulating Cameron Highlands. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This might be highlighted by BN / UMNO as an electoral argument in the run-up for the 13th general elections, now scheduled for next month. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />Certainly the political context leaves environmentalists in a dilemma. But what really happens in Lojing is really destructive to the environment and a much larger scale than what has been done at Cameron. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This happens 1,000 m above sea level, where the clearance is supposed to be illegal in the first place.</span><br />
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<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;">The death of Sungai Betatop and Sungai Legid</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><b><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sungai Betatop</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(see <a href="http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/2/13/nation/12704736&sec=nation">The Star</a>)</span></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Orang Asli Seng Sang village is the nearest to Lojing Highlands. The river, </span></span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">the Sungai Belatop, </span><span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">flowing from the mountain is the main source of water for residents here.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The villagers in Seng Sang village lived peacefully while using the resources provided by nature that surrounds them.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-949Co1JrQLY/UWvNJKwP0eI/AAAAAAAAA8k/yyH9Tn3Aqak/s1600/AFW17-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-949Co1JrQLY/UWvNJKwP0eI/AAAAAAAAA8k/yyH9Tn3Aqak/s640/AFW17-2.jpg" height="380" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Figure
2 :</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Sungai Belatop next to the
orang asli Seng Sang village</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The river suddenly took a muddy color while the jungle, where they used to hunt and collect forest products, had become barren. All the valuable timber in the area was logged. The developers were going to set up a vegetable farm that would not even belong to them.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Villagers said the state government did not appear to be concerned about their welfare and did not look into their problems. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Making matters worse, they faced a new dilemma when it refused to grant them their land titles. <o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">The state government, sometime ago, had promised to bestow to the villagers the grants to their land and houses, but reneged on this without any apparent reason.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Without the grants, it means that houses built in this village can be seized by the state government at anytime.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><b><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sungai Legid</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">(see “<a href="http://rubberforests.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/the-death-of-sungai-legid/">Rubber Forests</a>”)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span>
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Sungai Legid died during the Christmas of 2011, the villagers have had to make daily treks further into the Perias Forest Reserve to collect clean water for drinking. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bathing and washing has had to be done in the Sungai Betis, a river originating from Lojing highlands. The water in Sungai Betis is looking like <i>teh tarik</i>, due to the vast, uncontrolled land clearing that is ongoing in the mountains. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But (see Figure 3) have you ever seen a stream so completely damaged that it holds nothing other than logs and debris; that its once picturesque waterfalls, pools and eddies now resemble a quarry site; that its water sees no option other than to hide underground, only to be tainted blood red by iron oxides in the soil when it reappears to meet the sky again?</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kf3Unl5LwHw/UWvNKKmIxYI/AAAAAAAAA80/b83D8cPf-0k/s1600/AFW17-2b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kf3Unl5LwHw/UWvNKKmIxYI/AAAAAAAAA80/b83D8cPf-0k/s640/AFW17-2b.jpg" height="640" width="480" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Figure 3: This place in Sungai Legid used to be
a water fall (see "<a href="http://rubberforests.wordpress.com/tag/rps-kuala-betis/">Rubber Forest</a>")</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyway, after laying low for a few months, the logging contractors are back at it again.</span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even though the village headman had told them on no uncertain terms that he would not allow them to resume clear-felling the hill (which, by the way contains the only patch of rainforest left in the area), the chainsaws, logging trucks and bulldozers have returned to Bukit Sanyer in full force.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Make no mistake: there is nothing “illegal” about this logging. It’s actually “clear-felling” – every single tree is to be taken out and replaced with oil palm.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is a state-sanctioned activity by government-appointed contractors facilitated by the Kelantan Forestry Department.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #373737; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-60341541253696675792013-04-15T00:55:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:54:09.903-07:00Rampant agribusiness malpractices- Part 4-1: Rape of Lojing Highlands<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4-d-flPQtn8/UWuvOf9bP_I/AAAAAAAAA8M/SpWWhFLhV2Q/s1600/AFW17-6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4-d-flPQtn8/UWuvOf9bP_I/AAAAAAAAA8M/SpWWhFLhV2Q/s640/AFW17-6.jpg" height="368" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">1</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Vegetable farms at Lojing Highlands (see <a href="http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/2/2/nation/12659663&sec=nation">The Star</a>)</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Where is Lojing?</span></span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">In the Southeastern part of Kelantan, at the foot of
the Central Titiwangsa Range, Lojing Highllands are the continuation of Cameron
Highlands laying 12km up north. Located
over 1,000 m above sea level, Lojing’s climate is very similar to Cameron’s one.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Lojing is more
than twice bigger than Cameron with an area of 1,817 km2 and a very scarce
population: 5,613 in 2010 on which mostly 4,113 Orang Asli . So the Lojing’s human density is around 3/Km2,
much smaller than Cameron Highlands’ density 52/km2. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While
Pahang is purely a BN/UMNO stronghold, Kelantan has been PKR/PAS ruled during
two long periods: 1959-1977 (18 years) and more recently 1990-2013 (23 years)
until the coming up to the 13<sup>th</sup> General Election, with a gap period
1978-1990 (12 years) of BN/UMNO’s ruling. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nik
Abdul Aziz Nik Mat PAS President won a seat in the Kelantan State
Assembly in the 1986 general elections. In 1990, PAS managed to
wrest control of Kelantan back from BN/UMNO, Nik Aziz became Menteri
Besar (MB) of Kelantan. After 23 years in the office, Nik Aziz, 82 years old,
is certainly one of the longest serving MB in the country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Lojing Highlands was opened up under the South Kelantan
Development Authority (KESEDAR) in 1978. The area was first logged out with its
usual amount of controversy involving the ruling BN/UMNO government (see "<a href="http://syedsoutsidethebox.blogspot.com/2011/12/part-2-kelantan-ground-zero.html">Syeds outside the box</a>").</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">After
1990, big swathes of land were given away to PAS state government linked
companies as well as friendly parties (see Figure 1 above).Vast tracts of
pristine highlands forests at elevations ranging from 500m – 1500m were being
cleared to make way for agriculture.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"></span></div>
<h3>
<strong><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; line-height: 115%; padding: 0cm;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Forest & Land regulations: many loopholes to flout the rules
and no enforcement</span></span></strong></h3>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">Financial provisions in Malaysia are heavily in favor
of the Federal Government.<span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"> </span>State
Governments are afforded a very limited revenue base</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">, but Forestry under National
Forest Policy Act is a state matter: State Governments have complete
jurisdiction over their respective forest, land and water resources. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">As
a result </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">revenue from land and forests<span style="border: 1pt none windowtext; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; padding: 0cm;"> is the main solutions at hand for
State Government badly needing money such as Kelantan, and t</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">here
will be a significant potential loss of revenue for the State when any area of
the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Permanent Forest Estate (</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">PRE) is gazetted as
Protective Forest as explained hereafter.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">The
PFE following the National Forestry Act should be demarcated and managed under
four major functions: (a) Permanent Reserved Forest (PRF) for climatic or water
resources ; (b) State land forest for production
of timber; (c) National Parks and (d) Wildlife
and bird sanctuary.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">But
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">forests
in the Highlands are almost invariably not demarcated on the ground, not
afforded legal protection through gazettement other than Permanent Reserve
Forest (PRF</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Permanent
Forest Reserves might be classified as Rank 2 Environmentally Sensitive Areas
(ESA) where only sustainable logging (no conversion to agriculture or
plantations) is allowed, but this could be easily flouted by the state.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Kelantan
has untill now failed to gazette as “Protection Forest” (and continues to cut
down) many areas within its PRF that have conservation importance such as water
catchments, as spelt out in the National Forest Policy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">National
Forestry Council is issuing “key policies” that should be implemented
nationally. As an example of such advices: no logging should be carried out in
forests at an elevation of 1,000m above sea level and above. But will no
obligation for the state to obey as we can see later.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Enforcement is difficult due to poor resources. In the
Department of Wildlife and National Park (PERHILITAN), one officer only was assigned
by 2002 to Cameron’s Montane areas on a permanent basis (see <a href="http://repository.wwf.org.my/technical_reports/S/StudyForTheSustainableDevelopmentOfTheHighlandsOfPeninsularMalaysiaFinalReportVolumeIExecutiveSummary.pdf">WWF report onPeninsular Malaysia Highlands 2002</a>). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Furthermore
Cameron- Lojing- Kinta Highlands Special Management Area (484 km2) had been
proposed (see ibid.) encompassing most of the settlement within Cameron
Highlands, Lojing in Kelantan, and Kinta Highlands in Perak.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Existing
forest in the SMA in 2002 were constituting 40.3% of the area; steep lands with
slope > 25° constitute 25.2% of the area. No land important either due to
biodiversity or due to landslide or erosion hazard should be alienated for
development purposes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Developer
doing application for State land should be required to submit all the necessary
Environment Impact Assessments (EIA) as deemed necessary before an approval is
given. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">But
as explained in my post dated 5 April: EIAs approved in Lojing and Gua Musang
over the years, being of dubious quality should not have been approved in the
first place. Developers had carried out projects without submitting
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports while most are just failed to
follow its mitigation plans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Is
PAS Kelantan alienating or granting lands rights in Lojing to gain political
leverage?</span></span></h3>
<div style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 15.75pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Until today only Kelantan born people are allowed to own land in Kelantan. This difference from all other states in Malaysia is certainely one of the reasons for Kelantan poor economic results.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Some party have asked </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Nik Aziz to disclose land
deals that his PAS-led Kelantan government had done with a company that has
been alleged to have shares owned by some PKR/DAP members in Perak closely associated with PAS in PKR Coalition (see "<a href="http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2013/03/18/24-day-countdown-to-13ge">Lim Kit Siang blog</a>") . </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The land deals were alleged to involve around 4,000ha of a Malay reserved land located
in the Lojing Highlands.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> (MACC) is investigating the Kelantan
government's joint-venture rubber and oil palm estate project with the company
in which these PKR/DAP members in Perak
- including the DAP Chairman- were
accused to have stakes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A
source said investigations are looking into ascertaining on whether there were
elements of irregularities or inducement in the deal.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Perak DAP chairman had insisted that his stake in a massive Kelantan land project was
not a “reward” for accepting to turn down the MB’s post after the 2008 general
election for a PKR/PAS Muslim member.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Kelantan
is trying to duplicate but unsuccessfully Cameron Highlands</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">As seen in our post dated 5<sup>th</sup> of April, the
vegetable farmers from nearby Cameron Highlands due to the end of new TOL allowances
and farmed area restrained to 3,300 ha </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">might have helped trigger the
quest for land in the Lojing Highlands and through ‘joint ventures’ (see <a href="http://journalarticle.ukm.my/2290/1/MJEM_2009_6_Barrow__ok_.pdf">SustainableAgriculture in the Cameron Highlands BARROW, C.J.1 and al. 2009</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Due
to weaker enforcement of clearance restrictions in Lojing Highlands, over
25,000 ha have been cleared since 1990, much by those who hold land in the
Cameron Highlands (see ibid.). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">The Kelantan government thought that they could easily
replicate Cameron Highlands’ agribusiness success. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Cameron had a total 3,300 ha in farming land and they
believed that if the government could set in production 10 times more area, so
there would be proportionally 10 times more economic benefits.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">They forgot something very important. The farmers in
Cameron Highlands – mostly Chinese and Indian families- have had 50 years of
farming experience in the highlands. They are individual farmers practicing
intensive farming and in small farm, averaging 1- 3 hectares. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">No sane person being
compulsory Kelantan born citizen could open up thousands of hectares in the
highlands to do intensive farming as the one practiced in Cameron (see "<a href="http://planetofthemonyets.blogspot.com/2012/11/lojing-nik-azizs-colossal-failure.html">Planet of the Monyets</a>"). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sadly
in the Lojing Highlands, because there are clear uncontaminated land and clean
water supplies, Organic produces could have proved to be a good business model
with an expanding domestic and export market. Unfortunately, clearances in the
Lojing Highlands and through Orang Asli ‘joint-ventures’ jeopardize such hopes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">The sheer scale of the
forest destruction in Kelantan is awesome</span></span></h3>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">There are many reasons why ecological
activists are picking on Kelantan as a bad example (Rubber Forest). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">The
sheer <strong><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-weight: normal; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; padding: 0cm;">scale</span></strong><strong><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; padding: 0cm;"> </span></strong>of the
destruction is the first reason. No other state in Peninsular Malaysia can match
Kelantan for scale of deforestation, especially in recent years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">The rate of
deforestation in Kelantan is likely to be around 4% per year, four times higher
than the average deforestation rate for Malaysia (around 1%per year for the
period between 2000 and 2010). Here’s what we know for sure:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Based on the Kelantan
Forestry Department’s (see Figure 2), as of 2011, 199,000ha of the total
623,000ha (32%) of Permanent Reserved Forests (PRF) in Kelantan were zoned for
Latex Timber Clone (LTC) plantations. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">This is 1,990 km2 which almost three times the size of Singapore!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">While already quite
substantial, the 199,000ha doesn’t include forests that are being converted to
oil palm plantations. Based on EIA reports, another 26,581ha of the state’s
PRFs were approved for conversion to oil palm plantations by 2008-2010 .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">And that still
doesn’t include the enormous area that is being cleared for farms in the Lojing
highlands, where 25,436ha (almost 80 percent of the Lojing highlands) has been
earmarked for development.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0kDsecbkcuY/UWuvOm3ZEgI/AAAAAAAAA8U/GOCWDotsagI/s1600/AFW17-4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0kDsecbkcuY/UWuvOm3ZEgI/AAAAAAAAA8U/GOCWDotsagI/s640/AFW17-4.jpg" height="640" width="456" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Figure 2: Plantation zones in Kelantan (see <a href="http://rubberforests.wordpress.com/2012/11/03/does-size-matter/">Rubber Forest</a>). </span></h4>
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<br />jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-88934355131039496532013-04-04T19:39:00.003-07:002014-10-03T01:54:41.103-07:00Rampant agribusiness malpractices- Part 3: Destruction of Cameron Highlands<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AuWxdVPTZMg/UWYkJOocJRI/AAAAAAAAA78/FgvYiz0UWiU/s1600/AFW16-1b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AuWxdVPTZMg/UWYkJOocJRI/AAAAAAAAA78/FgvYiz0UWiU/s400/AFW16-1b.png" height="254" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Figure 1: Forest clearing in </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sg Mensun , Cameron Highlands (see in <a href="http://www.blogger.com/htt%20p://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/12/11/starprobe/12443133&sec=starprobe">The Star</a>) </span></b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Rampant forest clearing over the past two decades have been carried out by farmers who either are cheating regulations or taking advantage of poor law enforcement. </span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Cameron Highlands hill farms are supplying more than 60% of Malaysian vegetable and fruits needs while generating in addition sizable foreign earnings around 200 mil MYR, Singapore
being a key market.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">There should be about 2,800 farms by the end of the 2010s occupying an area around 3,300 ha on which 2,600 ha of vegetables (roughlly half cabbages) and 700 flowers (Barrow C.J. & al.). </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">But these farmers are committing crimes against the environment and the rich biodiversity in uphill Pahang and Kelantan. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Land clearing on hill slopes with a gradient above 30 degree is making landslides and soil erosion current hazards in surrounding water catchments stream and groundwater. </span></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Cameron Highlands is already packed with ugly and poorly regulated agribusinesses and as a result a steady destruction of its rich bio capacity is going on unrestricted. Low lands in Malaysia are heavily disturbed, so upland forests like those of the Cameron Highlands are an important refuge for biodiversity.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">Loging forest in Gua Musang while trying to emulate the growth of Cameron Highlands is less advanced in the process. But as far as converted forest are concerned it looks that enforcement and restrictions are much weaker. The limitation of agribusiness in Cameron Highlands is moving farmers into Lojing Highlands.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The two states are politically opposed. Pahang and Kelantan- both rural areas- are respectively strong hold of BN/UNMO and PKR/PAS. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">In the run-up to the 13</span><sup style="color: #333333; line-height: 15.454545021057129px;">th</sup><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> general election coming soon, each party is trying to single out the blatant malpractices of the other party: forest destructions and clean waters are becoming more and more political sensitive issues.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">The good news is that Malaysian awareness as concerns the environment conservation is increasing with the nation development.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span style="font-size: large;">Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA)</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Developers had
carried out projects without submitting Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
reports while most are just failed to follow its mitigation plans.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><a href="http://rubberforests.wordpress.com/">Environmental activists </a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">think that </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;">EIAs approved in Lojing
and Gua Musang over the years, being of dubious quality should not have been
approved in the first place.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #373737; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica;"><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Based on the Executive Summaries of EIA reports for conversion of forest to
plantations in Gua Musang/Lojing approved by DOE Kelantan in the past five
years (these summaries are available on DOE’s website), some questions are
arising:</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
The bulk of these EIA reports are done by a small number of EIA consulting
firms specialized in churning out EIAs for deforestation.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">These firms are emanating or depending from the State and many of these EIA
Executive Summaries are cut-and-paste jobs with a political bias.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Some of the findings and recommendations outlined in these summaries are
just plain dumb.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: medium; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Temporary
Occupation License</span></h3>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Normally land are leased for 5-15 years period on a special tenure called
Temporary Occupation License (TOL) . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
Poor soil and water conservation could lead to non renewal of a TOL, but this
has been seldom enforced (see </span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><a href="http://journalarticle.ukm.my/2290/1/MJEM_2009_6_Barrow__ok_.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">BarrowC.J. & al.</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">The issuance of new TOL had been frozen for land cultivation in Cameron
Highlands. But the </span><span style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><a href="http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/12/11/starprobe/12441805&sec=starprobe"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Federation of Malaysian
Vegetable growers</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"> said that because there
was no chance for new farmer to apply : "So, some take the risk to make a
living".<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">The Sultan of Pahang Sultan Ahmad Shah said it was
not just farmers from Pahang who were guilty of irresponsible land clearing in
Cameron Highlands, but outsiders as well.</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><span style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">After 2002 the allocation of new TOLs have been substantially restrained in Cameron Highlands.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">However, greater use of fertilizer, manure and sprinkler irrigation and an expansion of farming because TOL restrictions have being side-stepped are likely to mean more nutrient enrichment of streams and groundwater.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Those using excessive agrichemicals and manure and paying limited attention to soil and water conservation have considerable off-farm impact. Organic farming is especially vulnerable, as are river fisheries and irrigated farming in lowlands. It might be hoped that inefficient farmers would release TOLs for others to try more productive and perhaps sustainable and environmentally sound use of already cleared land. </span></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: medium; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">The law enforcement is very poor</span></h3>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Land has been cleared at a horrifying rate in an area in Sungai Mensun a
small tributary of Sungai Bertam, where ditch erosion is already visible, tons
of soil have been washed down into the waiting river down the slope (see in <a href="http://www.blogger.com/htt%20p:/thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/12/11/starprobe/12443133&sec=starprobe"><span style="color: blue;">The Star</span></a>)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Forest clearing without TOL or IAE is an irreversible process which should
be severely punished by confiscation of equipment, imprisonment or huge fines.
But it seems all this had been tacitly accepted and the lenient outcome is to
let the farms going on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Nobody seems to be particularly concerned at the official level! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Fortunately some local organizations- such as REACH- had been formed and
carry out grassroots actions that meet a large echo locally. REACH aims to
preserve, restore and maintain Cameron Highlands as an environmentally
sustainable agriculture and hill resort within a permanent nature reserve.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span>
</div>
</div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #333333; font-size: medium; line-height: 115%;">Examples of farming
malpractices highlighted by <a href="http://www.reach.org.my/">REACH</a></span></h3>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Fertilizers and pesticides flow into the waterways</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> <span style="font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Local farmers
resort to copious amounts of manure and synthetic fertilizers and rely on
indiscriminately and excessively on pesticides (see in</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/12/12/nation/20121212065450&sec=nation"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The
Star</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
With rain and irrigation, all these fertilizers and pesticides flow into the
waterways and get deposited in sediment. Toxic and illegal pesticidesTwo
toxic and illegal pesticides known to cause serious health problems to humans
are poisoning Cameron Highland's major rivers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) researchers who conducted numerous tests
found concentrations of the banned pesticides DDT and lindane in Sungai Bertam
and Sungai Telom.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
The United States' Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had classified the
pesticides as a probable human carcinogen.Both DDT and lindane have been
completely banned in Malaysia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
They are among the list of toxic chemicals identified in the Stockholm
Convention of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) which Malaysia signed in
2002 but has yet to be ratified.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Foul water</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">A group of farmer
had their water supply polluted by illegal clearing by another farmer.
Outraged, the affected farmers have lodged two police reports against the
errant farmer (see in</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=%2F2012%2F12%2F11%2Fnation%2F12439229&sec=nation"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The
Star</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
Land Office enforcement officers have since ordered the land clearing to
stop. But a site visit<i> </i>showed that workers were still busy
preparing the cleared land at the top of the hill for agricultural cultivation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Fish start to die in the river feeding a major water treatment reservoir</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 13.5pt; font-weight: normal;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">On the 28<sup>th</sup> of
February 2012, fishes were found floating in Sungai Terla by the hundreds.
Sungai Terla is the river feeding the reservoir at Sg.Terla water treatment
plant supplying treated water to more than two thirds of Cameron Highlands.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;"><br />
Contamination of Sg Terla water treatment plant will continue to be a problem
and probably escalate in severity so long as the root cause has not
been removed .ie presence of farms and settlements in the water catchment
areas. In line with the general practice of watershed management for the
purpose of drinking water supply, there should not be any forms of human habitation
within the Sg. Terla watershed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</h3>
</div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 3.75pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 11.7pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-25qWGbnJrkA/UV44t9WXlVI/AAAAAAAAA7k/3sqcjopoCLQ/s1600/AFW16-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-25qWGbnJrkA/UV44t9WXlVI/AAAAAAAAA7k/3sqcjopoCLQ/s400/AFW16-2.jpg" height="400" width="273" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US"> : A farmer filling a glass
of water at his tap</span></b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin: 0cm 0cm 3.75pt; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span></div>
<div style="background: white; margin-bottom: 3.75pt; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-line-height-alt: 11.7pt;">
<br />
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large;">Is it possible to remedy the situation of Cameron Highlands?</span></h3>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(see: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Sustainable Agriculture in the Cameron Highlands, <a href="http://journalarticle.ukm.my/2290/1/MJEM_2009_6_Barrow__ok_.pdf">BARROW, C.J and al. 2009</a>)</span></span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="font-size: 12.727272033691406px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_tAWpx33n2E/UV44uazFcpI/AAAAAAAAA7s/8zrlws-23SY/s1600/AFW16-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_tAWpx33n2E/UV44uazFcpI/AAAAAAAAA7s/8zrlws-23SY/s640/AFW16-3.jpg" height="361" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span lang="EN-US">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US">: Hydroponic agribusiness in
Cameron Highlalnds (see in <a href="http://www.rightwayround.net/">Righway Round</a>)</span></b></span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">In the past the focus of authorities and farmers has generally been on intensification, rather than soil or water conservation, and control of the pollutions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><b>Soil erosion and irrigation control</b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">Sprinkler irrigation and plastic rain shelters are adopted to improve yields and crop quality and allow diversification, rather than control erosion. It is likely that shelters can also reduce erosion from plots, but caution is needed to prevent the intercepted rain from causing gullying or sheet wash off-plot.</span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">Land which is not disturbed often develops a crust of algae, mosses, lichens and micro-organisms, which almost certainly reduces erosion and might lock up some of the excess nutrients from fertilizers and manure. There has been research elsewhere on such crusts. If there are benefits in tropical highlands farmers could be encouraged to establish crusts.</span></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Drip irrigation uses far less water and fertilizer than sprinkler irrigation and can cut evapo- transpiration losses and runoff erosion. However, it may lead to accumulation of salts and other contaminants in plots. More research is needed to check the value of drip irrigation in reducing groundwater and stream pollution.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">MARDI Station in Tanah Rata has demonstration plots showing drip irrigation, hydroponics and catch-drains and a few farms now use such techniques.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">Off-farm controls will also be needed to trap sediment that reaches streams. Constructing reed or water hyacinth beds and diverting streams through them could achieve this. The trapped sediment could be used to renew plots and the reeds composted or burnt for power generation.</span></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: medium;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Fertilizers and pesticides</b></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Farmers are pressured to reduce agrichemical use, but much less attention has been given to controlling over-generous application of chicken-manure which is now more prevalent than chemical fertilizer usage.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">The authorities have been trying to control pesticide usage for decades, but large numbers of growers were recently reported to be using banned compounds imported from Thailand and other countries. Unfortunately, illegal agrichemicals are cheaper and seen by farmers to be more effective.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: medium;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: medium;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Organic farming</b></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Organic produce is an expanding domestic and export market. Studies suggest the organic farmers get roughly 50% better prices, but have lower yields than non-organic. </span></span><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt;">Learning compost making and getting suitable raw materials like organic chicken-manure are key elements of successful organic growing.</span></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: medium;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><u1:p></u1:p></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm;">
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">But nowhere in Cameron Highlands all who are interested in organic farming could convert, because agrichemicals drift from other farms contaminate streams and groundwater needed for irrigation. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;">Ironically, organic growers are amongst those making biodiversity damaging clearances in the Lojing Highlands, probably because they can clear uncontaminated land with clean water supplies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="font-size: medium;">
<br /></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span>
<br />
<div class="MsoCaption" style="font-size: medium;">
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">
</span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div class="MsoCaption" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-84934076778423713542013-03-27T18:57:00.001-07:002014-10-03T02:13:33.125-07:00Rampant agribusiness malpractices- Part 2: Mossy forest and tea plantations<br />
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></h3>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H8aVV25tbLk/UVOiDLulTaI/AAAAAAAAA64/bzuM6MAiEzI/s1600/AFW15-1bIMG_1834IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="font-weight: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H8aVV25tbLk/UVOiDLulTaI/AAAAAAAAA64/bzuM6MAiEzI/s400/AFW15-1bIMG_1834IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" height="265" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Figure 1: View from Gunung
Brinchang (2,031m) in Cameron Highlands</span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Cameron mossy forest- Another carnivorous plant</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Mossy Forest in Gunung Brinchang, Cameron Highlands is an amazingly
rich 200,000 year old forest. Old-growth forest patches are found mostly on the
highest hilly areas (see <a href="http://www.cameronhighlands.com/News/Articles/The-Mossy-Forest/">the mossy forest</a>).<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Montane
rain forests<span class="apple-converted-space"> are named </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“cloud
forests” due to </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">their
persistent low-level<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>cloud<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>cover</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. The “evapo-transpiration”
process from their low cloud condition dwarfs trees, and gives trunks and
branches a twisted look. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rwi2casHnHI/UVOiDC8ET-I/AAAAAAAAA60/DBjYupE10Nk/s1600/AFW15-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rwi2casHnHI/UVOiDC8ET-I/AAAAAAAAA60/DBjYupE10Nk/s640/AFW15-2.jpg" height="428" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : The mossy or cloud forest in Cameron Highlands <o:p></o:p></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The permanent moisture and reduced sunlight produce rich
moss, epiphytes (plant growing on another plant), fern covering, peat humus and
swampy ground. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Cloud
forests will be strongly affected by climate change: simulation suggest that low-altitude cloudiness might be reduced; the hydrological cycle will change, so the system will dry out.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The mossy forest is also home to the Nepenthes, better
known locally as Pitcher Plant or Monkey Cup. This plant is carnivorous
with a liquid filled deep cavity attracting small insects that drown in it (see the <a href="http://www.petpitcher.com/articles/carnivorous-plants-in-malaysia/">carnivorious plants in Malaysia</a>). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YYNcPxqBnKc/UVOkmJpB3kI/AAAAAAAAA7E/5cYWRLk5pNs/s1600/IMG_1843IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YYNcPxqBnKc/UVOkmJpB3kI/AAAAAAAAA7E/5cYWRLk5pNs/s400/IMG_1843IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" height="263" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ
Figure \* ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:
text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : A Pitcher plant in</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 18pt;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">the Mossy Forest </span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">As in the case of the
enigmatic Rafflesia (see my post dated 20 March), montane and secondary forests, wetlands where Nepenthes grow
are being cleared or burned for agriculture or for development,
destroying their entire habitat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Carnivorous plants are
very sensitive to fertilizers and chemicals. Pollution from farming, artificial
fertilizers and pesticides, poisons the soil or water and kills the plants. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Another problem that
contributes to the dwindling of Nepenthes plant populations is the lack of
public knowledge and awareness on these plants. Many still do not know what
Nepenthes are and if they do it is clouded by misconception and misinformation.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-style: italic; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The first agribusiness: BOH tea plantations success story</span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">No trip to Cameron Highlands is complete without a
visit to the tea plantations. But why are tea plantations so beautiful,
serene and peaceful? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Maybe is it because of the lush greenery, the cool
temperature and the scare population? Or – as for vineyards in France- is it due to the delicate balance established between an ancient culture and a soil (“terroir” in French)
shaped by the nature and men? </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tbww7cWzkcM/UVOiCsDCb0I/AAAAAAAAA6s/POwAeZUrVag/s1600/AFW15-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tbww7cWzkcM/UVOiCsDCb0I/AAAAAAAAA6s/POwAeZUrVag/s640/AFW15-1.jpg" height="430" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span
style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">4</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"> : Heritage tea plantation in uphill Cameron Highlands </span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tea is the most popular beverage in the world, second only to water. Tea plants are mostly cropped in Asia with China, India, Sri lanka, Vietnam & Indonesia being the top players with more than 70% of worldwide production.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The 3 biggest producing countries in the world are all in Asia: China,
India and Sri Lanka and together are around 63% of production. Malaysia is a
small player with only 2,500ha -70% being BOH tea- but with a high yield and
high quality tea (see <a href="http://faostat3.fao.org/">FAO-UN statistics</a>)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After Wall Street crashed in 1927, the world entered into
a recession. John Archibald Russell– an English business man who had invested
in Malaya rubber, coal, construction and plywood – decided to invest into tea
planting (see the <a href="http://boh2u.blogspot.com/p/who-is-tristan-russell.html">Russell family</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In 1929, he obtained a grant for 1,600ha of land in
Cameron Highlands for tea cultivation. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">BOH plantation was its last venture, and proved to be
the best one. As the Great Depression set in around the world, the premium teas
grown at high elevations managed to maintain their prices (see a <a href="http://www.expatgomalaysia.com/malaysia-guide-article/about-malaysia/353/a-walk-down-memory-lane-with-tristan-russel#.UVFs7ReePlY">walk down memory lane with Tristan Russell</a>). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After 85 years,
production capacity is around 3,000kg per hectare and the BOH tea- in a niche high-quality
tea market- represents about 70% of all tea produced in Malaysia (see <a href="http://www.cameronhighlands.com/Destination-Guide/Docs/Boh-Tea-Plantations/">BOH tea plantation guide</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In addition to a climate not too cool, tea plants require
at least 1,300 mm of rainfall a year and prefer acidic soils. Many high-quality
teas are cultivated at elevations of up to 1,500 m above sea level, the
plants growing more slowly which produces better-flavored teas.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Only the top 3 to 5 cm of the mature plant is plucked.
These buds and leaves are called flush or shoot.</span><sup style="line-height: 115%;"> </sup><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">A plant will grow a
new flush every 7 to 15 days during the growing season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A tea plant will grow into a tree of up to
16 m if left undisturbed, but cultivated plants- as for Japan bonsai- are
pruned to waist height in order to ease the plucking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Agribusiness management is a key factors in tea plantation </span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tea plantation in Cameron Highlands has extended to
more than 50 years. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Under normal conditions, tea plant removes the nutrients from the soil- mainly N, P and K- through the plucking of young shoots. The fertilizers addition are aiming to restore these soil nutrients</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. There is a risk that l</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">ong term usage of fertilizers might enrich the cultivated
area with nutrients in soil.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Non-point pollutions in the environment are caused
by runoff on the slope surface. </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Being located on hill with slope gradients </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">up to 20 degrees,</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> the runoffs are greater than on flat areas.</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">By 2005, tea plantations were occupying 40% fraction of
the total agriculture land in Cameron Highlands. But since that period this ratio might have decreased owing to fruit and vegetable agribusinesses’ development.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Over the period 1995-2005, for overall Malaysia, the
production of tea has been more or less stabilized, while the production of both fruits and vegetables has increased
by 94% (see FOA-UN: </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/fertusemalaysia.pdf">Fertilizer use</a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/fertusemalaysia.pdf"> </a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/fertusemalaysia.pdf">in Malaysia PDF</a>), </span>with certainly a much higher rate in Cameron.<br />
<br />
Tea is the most environmentally friendly croppy systems in the Cameron Highlands. An evergreen shrub, grown on slopes of up to 60 degrees, it provides groundcover (dense enough to protect the soil from raindrop impact and low enough to avoid intercepted moisture falling as droplets to cause sub-canopy erosion). (see <a href="http://journalarticle.ukm.my/2290/1/MJEM_2009_6_Barrow__ok_.pdf">Barrow CJ & al.</a>).<br />
<br />
So there are strong reasons to think that tea plantations in Cameron Highlands are not the main culprits of increased pollution during the last period. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Moreover, studies have shown that tea yield is affected by
age of the plants. For older plantations the application of N should be
restricted to low levels (about 50kg /ha/y) to maintain quality and prevent
pest during stress periods (see </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.scienceasia.org/2011.37.n1/scias37_83.pdf">TeaPlantation practices PDF</a>)</span>.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Planting of improved genotypes and implementing
appropriate N management strategies are key factors to avoid a decline of
productivity associated with ageing and bush degradation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pruning is also seen as a key practice to strenghten the bush
architecture and the production of leaves. In South India pruning before the
harvest are practiced </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">with a cycle</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;"> of 4 years in order to </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">improve plants productivity </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;">. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JVT_FG05C4A/UVOkmYLEZdI/AAAAAAAAA7Q/WVioVGFt2J0/s1600/IMG_1898IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-JVT_FG05C4A/UVOkmYLEZdI/AAAAAAAAA7Q/WVioVGFt2J0/s400/IMG_1898IMG_7503.JPG.JPG" height="256" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext;
mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \*
ARABIC </span><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt; mso-no-proof: yes;">5</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:9.0pt;color:windowtext'><span
style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"> : Tamil workers in Cameron Highlands<o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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</tbody></table>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-44639760508504233942013-03-20T03:23:00.000-07:002014-10-03T01:56:10.547-07:00Rampant agribusiness malpractices are damaging Malaysian hill stations and water catchments - Part 1: The iconic Rafflesia flower is threatened<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LEiXyyDChJw/UUmM3Et_XcI/AAAAAAAAA6c/AVNTJac2wsk/s1600/AFW14-1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; line-height: normal; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LEiXyyDChJw/UUmM3Et_XcI/AAAAAAAAA6c/AVNTJac2wsk/s640/AFW14-1.jpg" height="426" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Figure 1: The Rafflesia flower met during a trek in Cameron
Highlands</span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Last February in Cameron Highlands, we had the chance
to admire one of the wonder of nature, the giant Rafflesia flower, icon of the
virgin forest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">After 2 hours trekking far into the hilly forest, we walked
along a heavily muddied stream and arrived at a waterfall where we might have soaked some weeks before. Our guide explained that this was a recent pollution due to a
new uphill strawberry farming settlement. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Further he introduced us to the mysterious Rafflesia
flower in full blooming (see Figure 1) and to the tiny flowers’ buds scattered in
the forest. But sadly he explained, such nature's miracle was doomed to disappear due to the growing pressure of farms.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First I thought that such nightmare was an extreme view from a
radical nature lover! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Unfortunately weeks later he informed me that his bad
dream had come true: the Orang Asli people had cut down all flowers and buds upon
incitement by the farmers. Certainly the later were eager to show that the place was useless for the Rafflesia
before a further clearing of the forest </span>to expand their dirty strawberry business.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Being a witness of such a rampant “ecological murder”,
I wanted to try to understand such aberration. How mankind would better strive
to have ever more strawberries than to protect and admire this mysterious
Rafflesia that nature granted us!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Malaysia’s forest and hill resorts</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Cameron Highlands in Pahang covers an area of 712 km2,
the size of Singapore. The hill resort is located along the central mountain
range close to the border of Pahang and Kelantan, the most rural states of
peninsular Malaysia. Both states have large upland areas straddling the Central
and East mountain ranges, the backbone of the peninsula (see Figure2). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;">2</span><!--[if supportFields]><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:windowtext'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">: </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt;">Central & East
Titiwangsa mountain ranges and Bintang West mountain ranges, hill stations and
park in Peninsula Malaysia<span class="apple-converted-space"> , in red dots <a href="http://umkeprints.umk.edu.my/967/6/0001.pdf">distribution of Rafflesia kerrii</a></span></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Jacque/Documents/ASIAN%20PACIFIC-FOOTPRINT/umkeprints.umk.edu.my/967/6/0001.pdf"><span lang="EN-US" style="background: white; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span></a></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pahang and Kalimantan Rivers’ basins are covering the
biggest part of these tates including highlands ranging between 1,000m and
1,500m in elevation, with peaks more than 2,000m high. The Pahang River system is flowing
southeastward while Kelantan River system flows northward. Both basins have an
annual rainfall of about 2,170 -2,500 mm, a large proportion of which occurs
during the North-East Monsoon from October to January. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">These highlands are mostly covered with virgin forest, including montane mossy cloud forest in the highest parts. Progressively tea
plantations, oil palm, rubber and various agribusinesses have been encroaching
upon the virgin jungle. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Taman Negara National Park is a national heritage area
for trekking around Gg Tahan. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pahang houses the three most popular Malaysian
highland resorts, namely Cameron Highlands, Fraser’s Hill and Genting Highlands
where temperatures are averaging 18° C to 22°C during the day. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Cameron is now the most important fresh fruit and vegetable
producing center of the country traded in the neighboring urban areas-
IPOH, Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Singapore. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">In the Kelantan basin, the Lojing
forest in </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">Gua Musang</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"> some five km away from Cameron Highlands on the
other side of the state border is also impatient to develop also as a tourist hill
resort. But as we will see, it is now developing questionable large new
agribusiness scheme.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Lojing is famous for the Rafflesia kerrii species which
may be the largest Rafflesia in the world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In Malaysia this species is only found at the borders
of Kelantan, Pahang, Perak and Kedah in Bintang Range. If Lojing is damage so
will be this magnificent flower.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Agribusiness development and pollutions in hill resort
and water catchments</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; line-height: 15.75pt;">During the last 10 years Cameron Highlands population (now 37,147) has
been booming with an yearly increase of 2.80%, while overall Malaysia made only 2.17%, and Kelantan & Pahang increased their population at a much lower
rate respectively 1.26% and 1.62%.(see last <a href="http://www.statistics.gov.my/">Malaysian census</a>)</span></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Such increase is due to a
huge development of vegetable agribusinesses and the production of quality
vegetable including hydroponic production. But rampant agribusiness
malpractices are destroying the hill stations environment and the Bertam river
basin watershed.</span> </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span><br />
<h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pollution of river</span></span></h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Prior to the development of the hill station about 90%
of the Telom and 65% of the Bertam catchments were covered with forest. Natural
river quality- before pollution- was slightly acidic because of its origin from
rain water tannin and leaves acid release from the forest floor. Naturally
photosynthesis and respiration played an important part in the river
purification. </span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Agribusiness uncontrolled activities encroachment in
the catchment areas have increased from approximately 10% to 34% in the Telom River
and from 28% to 36% in the <a href="http://www.engr.colostate.edu/~pierre/ce_old/Projects/linkfiles/Thesis%20Soo%20Huey%20Teh.pdf">Bertam River between 1960 and 1990</a>. And d</span>uring the last ten years the land use change associated with vegetables, fruits and flowers farming on steep valleys, have further accelerated.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pollution in river basin is produced from point
sources (domestic sewage) and non-point sources (agricultural runoff). After
water runoff on agribusinesses, nutrients are stored in the surface soil
layers to be released in the river during rainy time. </span><br />
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Nitrogen nutrients in the Bertam basin are largely exceeding
the recommended minimum fixed by the WHO. <a href="http://www.idosi.org/wasj/wasj7(6)/12.pdf">Registered values</a> are exceeding twice
the WHO minimum level in average water flow (AWF) and up to 7 times in high
water flow (HWF).</div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Phosphorous nutrients just as they do in land are
stimulating aquatic plants growth including undesirable algae. Agricultural
fertilizers released in HWF are causing severe eutrophication of the river
basin. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Huge decline in water quality are observed during
post-monsoon (HWF) at all stations which indicates that agribusiness non-point pollution
sources have a major impact on water quality.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Besides pollution from organic compounds, siltation is
causing additional water quality deterioration. Total Suspended Solids
(TSS) were found extremely high especially at HWF at Bertam river, Brinchang
town and Burong river. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Siltation from land erosion resulting from uncontrolled
deforestation, indiscriminate land clearing and unchecked agribusinesses
installation on steep slopes are major contributor. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As an example the Ringlet Reservoir next to the iconic Lakehouse has lost all of
its dead storage (2 mil m3) plus 70% of its live storage (4.7 mil m3)
to sedimentation not to mention the reduction of generated peak power capacity of the hydroelectric scheme.</span></div>
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<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: FR;">Why is the <a href="http://goseasia.about.com/od/malaysia/a/rafflesia_flower_malaysia.htm">Rafflesia Flower</a> icon of Malaysian hill’s
stations so precious?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> </span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;">The Rafflesia - known locally as the Lotus Flower - is used by women Orang-Asli to cure their figure after childbirth. The </span></span></span><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;">carnivorious </span><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;">flower feeds on flies and other insects attracted by its rotten smell.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://umkeprints.umk.edu.my/967/6/0001.pd" style="line-height: 13.5pt;">Rafflesia Kerrii</a><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;"> - maybe the biggest Rafflesia in the world- is found only in Southern Thailand and up to Lojing, Cameron and the borders of Kelantan, Pahang, Perak and Kedah in Bintang Range. To date it has only been recorded in these locations.</span></span><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;">The Rafflesia is the icon of Cameron and Lojing Highlands.</span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">The enigmatic Rafflesia</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"> is inherently rare as a result of a number of factors of their life
cycle </span><span style="line-height: 13.5pt;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent; line-height: 13.5pt;">:</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">The
flower can only successfully
parasitize a particular species- the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">Tetrastigma vine a member of the grape family-;
b</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">oth Rafflesia and </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">Tetrastigma
vine</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"> in turn
are found only in specific habitats. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">There is
an extremely unbalanced sex ratio in the Rafflesia<i> </i>flowers observed, with many more male than
female flowers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">Flower
buds have a high level of mortality and only 10 -18% go on to bloom, the
blooming lasting for a maximum 10 days.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The pollination process is still unknown… <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">So the
chances of a male and female flower being in bloom at the same time in a close
enough vicinity to be pollinated by an unknown insect are therefore extremely
low. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">The
Future of the Rafflesia is gloom</span></h3>
<div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-inAD5jQkeLc/UUmMyfqyDPI/AAAAAAAAA6M/jNrRqcQRDRM/s1600/AFW14b-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-inAD5jQkeLc/UUmMyfqyDPI/AAAAAAAAA6M/jNrRqcQRDRM/s640/AFW14b-3.jpg" height="416" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">Figure </span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-element:field-begin'></span></span><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;mso-ansi-language:
EN-US;font-weight:normal;mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span>SEQ Figure \* ARABIC </span><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-element:field-separator'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">3</span><!--[if supportFields]><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-themecolor:text1;font-weight:normal;
mso-bidi-font-weight:bold'><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span></span><![endif]--><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">: The Rafflesia is praised on Malaysian banknote <o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">Malaysia in one of the hot spots of "mega-diversity area" in the world. The country primary or old-growth forests- believed to be from 200,000 years (cloud forest) up to 130 mil years old (rain forest) - have produced an amazine range of flora such as orchids, pitcher plants as well as the enigmatic Rafflesia the world largest florest. </span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;">There is
a need to better know and protect the flower as proposed by Universiti
Malaysian Kelantan (UMK). At least three species victim to excessive habitat
loss are thought to already be extinct. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">But is the protection of Rafflesia icon of the Malaysian hill highlands -praised
on Malaysian banknotes (Figure 3)- really a national priority?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;">Also unrestrained agribusiness pollutions already have had a huge impact on </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">Pahang and Kelantan rivers </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">which are among the most important </span><span style="font-size: 16.363636016845703px;">Malaysian </span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">water catchments and need to be conserved and protected. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
jh Teyssier bloghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00023485044132073163noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3661959023166222060.post-17933157628101710902013-02-27T19:38:00.003-08:002014-10-03T01:57:12.268-07:00China’s ocean and coastal areas sustainable development is a strategic issue constraining the further planned development of the country<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IDDD7pTL3GI/US7PEz5iFGI/AAAAAAAAA4k/bX0aOHIbxrw/s1600/AFW13-1bis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IDDD7pTL3GI/US7PEz5iFGI/AAAAAAAAA4k/bX0aOHIbxrw/s640/AFW13-1bis.jpg" height="425" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">1</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : More than 5,500 km2 of water in the Bohai Sea have been polluted by oil spilled at the CNOOC Penglai 19-3 oilfield since June 2011, causing the country's worst offshore maritime pollution <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2011-10/25/content_23715960.htm">See china.org</a></span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China’s marine jurisdiction includes temperate, subtropical and tropical
areas crossing 38 degrees of latitude with 18,000 km of continental coastline. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">China’s ocean and coastal environments offer countless habitats of
biological and genetic diversity providing a wealth of ecosystem services such
as fishery catches, nutrient recycling, detoxification and shoreline protection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">In East and Southeast Asia, the best performing
countries for the length of their coastline in relation to their population are
Japan and ASEAN, which are comprising many islands and then, far
behind, China and India which are large continental and populous countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Under these conditions, the conservation and
enhancement of a relatively narrow maritime coastline for its huge population,
is for China an important strategic issue. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Besides access to seaways, fisheries and mineral
resources, the conservation of the biological productive capacity of sea and the impacts of global warming are considerable challenges for the well-being of the
huge coastal Chinese population.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></h3>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">China’s oceanic and marine coastal organization- Adjacent coastal urban regions</span></h3>
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<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The following Figures 2 and 3 show the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">coastline
and the </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">four Chinese adjacent
sea locations: Bohai Sea (77,000km2), Yellow Sea (380,000 km2), East China Sea (1,249,000 km2) and South </span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">China Sea</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> (</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">3,500,000 km2)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">China’s coastline is more than 30,000 km long, on
which 18,000 km of continental coastline and more than 12,000 km of island coastline. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The bio capacity of sea is mostly located along the
continental coastline due to the discharge of nutrient</span> and other bio element brought by the main rivers.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Figure
2 shows the watershed of the 3 main rivers from South to North: Zhujiang (Pearl
River), Changiang (Yangtze River) and Huanghe (Yellow River) and their
discharge points into the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bTlHxPSjN4A/US8xj-PYZ-I/AAAAAAAAA5w/quTQZNKHi6o/s1600/AFW13-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bTlHxPSjN4A/US8xj-PYZ-I/AAAAAAAAA5w/quTQZNKHi6o/s640/AFW13-2.jpg" height="462" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">2</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : China’s coastline and their adjacent four seas</span></span></h4>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
</div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The following Figure 2 highlights the Bohai
sea situation: the 3 main bays and the 6 river estuaries (Huanghe, Haihe,
Luanhe, Dalinghe, Shuangtaizhe and Liaohe rivers). The Bohai Sea, the innermost
gulf of the Yellow Sea, is one of the busiest seaways of the world and contains
significant oil and gas reserves, providing much of China's offshore production.
Bohai is a half-closed sea with comparatively low self-clean ability due to
limited water exchange with the outside.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PtFaEKG3iyA/US7PIQv2fgI/AAAAAAAAA48/MRaRoomO3tQ/s1600/AFW13-3bis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PtFaEKG3iyA/US7PIQv2fgI/AAAAAAAAA48/MRaRoomO3tQ/s640/AFW13-3bis.jpg" height="556" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><h4>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">3</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : Chinese Bohai Sea</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As explained in my post dated 23 Oct. 2012, China has an urban coastal ribbon formed
from 11 adjacent coastal highly developed regions, which have brought with them both population density and urbanization. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This urban coastal region accounts now for 60 % of Chinese GDP and 90% of
its imports and exports and is seeing an increasing concentration of industrial activities.
Though China’s coastal region constitutes only 13% of its total landmass, more
than 525 bil people or 40% of the Chinese population live in this area. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<br /></div>
<h3>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">The Current Status of Chinese Coastal Environments is grim: the last 5
years have seen increased pollution pressure on coastal water marine
environments</span></h3>
<div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">See: <a href="http://www.sfu.ca/international-development/cciced/pdf/2010_ReportofOcean.pdf">Report from the China Council for InternationalCooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED) Nov 2010</a> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">; <span style="color: #333333; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyhjzlgb/201211/t20121107_5528.html">2011 Bulletin from China’s SeaOceanic Administration </a></span></span></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Land-based pollution is a key factor in the decline of conditions in
China’s ocean and coasts. During the past 10 years, the volume of pollutants
carried by river discharge has steadily increased. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The highest discharged pollutants are from agricultural sources (44%),
domestic sources (37%), and industrial sources (19%). They include chemical
oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, petroleum
products, volatile phenols, and heavy metals.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">River monitoring results for the period 2002-2009, show that pollutants
carried to the sea by the major rivers increased by 121.3% and reached up to
13.67 mil tons by 2009. The Changjiang (Yangtze) River and Zhujiang (Pearl) River
contribute to about 70% of China’s total pollution runoff into the sea.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pollution grade classification is defined in relation with the
requirement of the various types of water ecosystems. China uses a five-grade classification scheme for marine water quality.
Grade I & II are the best: grade I is required for sea fisheries, marine
reserves or protected areas, grade II for aquaculture, sea bath, sport and
marine entertainments. Grade III and IV are admitted respectively for general
industrial coastal areas, port and marine development. The fifth grade is the
worst: the water quality being less than grade IV. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">From Figure 4, 5 and 6 below, we see that water quality had dramatically
decreased since 2005. In 2011, polluted offshore waters - classified Grade III,
IV and worse- covered approximately 100,000km2, accounting for over half of
China’s total coastal marine areas. These polluted water areas had increased by
50% during the last 6 years. The best
quality Grade I, covered only 45,000km2 and less than 25% of total with almost
no Grade I water in Bohai Sea. Grade I and II areas had steadily dwindled since 2005.</span></div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3k7hKL8pOz8/US7PHupqDCI/AAAAAAAAA40/zb66NL0_WSQ/s1600/AFW13-5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3k7hKL8pOz8/US7PHupqDCI/AAAAAAAAA40/zb66NL0_WSQ/s640/AFW13-5.png" height="474" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">4</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : China marine coastal water quality in 2011</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As seen in Figure 5 below, the polluted areas are mainly concentrated in large estuaries and bays, including in Bohai sea (Liaodong, Bohai & Laizhou bays), Yellow sea (Jiaozhou Bay) , East China sea (Jiangsu coast, Yangtze Delta, Hangzhou Bay & Xiangshan Harbour) and South China sea (Pearl River Estuary). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure 5</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : 2011 China marine coastal water quality diagram distribution </span></span></h4>
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Limited waste treatment has placed great pressure on the marine environment. The above mentioned polluted areas are largely the most developed coastal areas within China, and the developmental strategy of “treatment after pollution” is one of the main reasons for the serious environmental problems.</div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">Figure </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;">6</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-size: 14pt;"> : Evolution of overall marine water quality 2005-2011</span></span></h4>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">Damage to the health of marine ecosystems</span></h3>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Due to the rapid development of marine industries and the coastal
economy during the past three decades, coastal ecosystems and their habitats
have been under significant threat and have deteriorated.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Existing marine legislation remains much weaker than similar terrestrial
environmental conservation legislation. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Pollution,
large-scale reclamation, and the invasion of exotic aquatic species have caused
significant damage in coastal wetlands.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">China has lost 57% of its coastal wetlands, 73% of its mangroves, and 80%
of its coral reefs since the 1950's. Two-thirds of the coasts are under the
threat of coastal erosion and the reduction of marine biological diversity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">A new study from Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, and the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
<a href="http://www.coralcoe.org.au/news/chinas-corals-facing-wicked-problem">published in the journal Conservation Biology describes the situation as a ‘wicked problem’ – meaning it has no easy solutions.</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">The corals of the South China Sea
region cover an area of 30,000 km2, have high conservation values, and support
the livelihoods of tens of thousands of fishers. The fact that some reefs are
claimed by several different countries makes conservation and management
particularly difficult</span><span style="font-size: 12pt;">.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">“Typically, when a coral reef
degrades it is taken over by seaweeds – and from there, experience has shown,
it is very hard to return it to its natural coral cover. The window of
opportunity to recover the reefs of the South China Sea is closing rapidly,
given the state of degradation revealed in this study”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">“We found that coral abundance
has declined by at least 80% over the past 30 years on coastal fringing reefs
along the Chinese mainland and adjoining Hainan Island. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><br /></span></span>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">On offshore atolls and
archipelagos claimed by 6 countries in the South China Sea, coral cover has
declined from an average of >60% to around 20% within the past 10–15 years,”
it says.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">Increasing prevalence of marine hazards</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt;">S<span style="font-weight: normal;">ince
the 1990s, ecological disasters caused by </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">harmful algae blooms (HAB) and jellyfish blooms have been frequently
recorded in China’s seas causing direct economic losses of nearly 2 bil
yuan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">The
frequency and scale of red tides significantly increased since the late 1990's. On
2007-2011: the registered yearly average is 65 red tides reaching an accumulated area of
11,000 km2 each year. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">A
large-scale green tide occurred for the first time in 2007, and has reappeared
every year thereafter. During 2009-2011 in China’s Yellow Sea the distribution
area was 26,000- 58,000 km2 with and actual coverage of 500- 2,100 km2.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal;">Since 2000,
the biomass of giant jellyfish has been increasing and since these ingest large
amounts of zooplankton, they rob fish of their food supply.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">From 4 June to 12 July 2011,
three undersea oilspills of long duration occurred in CNOOC Penglai 19-3
oilfield resulting in a large discharge of crude oil and oil-based mud causing serious
pollution to the Bohai Sea ecological environment. Plankton
species and marine life were damaged by petroleum content in Tangshan in Hebei
Province, Qinhuangdao port in Shandong peninsula, and Liaoning Province. The
oilspills contaminated first class sea water quality of about 6,200km2.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Arial Narrow"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The oil spill was not
publicly reported until 31 days later on July 5, 2011, and was only revealed
because of a public microblog tip-off.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></span>Further criticism followed that the spilled oil
flow into the Yellow Sea may damage both North Korea and South
Korea; media from those countries have
complained about Beijing being as irresponsible as the Japanese's reluctant to
share information about its nuclear disasters.</div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: large; line-height: 115%;">Decline of inshore marine fishery resources</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">Historically under-utilized, China’s inshore marine fishery resources
are now being over-exploited. Since the 1960’s, the number of fishing vessels has steadily increased, and fishing technologies have
modernized and grown ever more efficient.</span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">In the mid-1970's, fishery catches
reached three mil ton. The harvest of traditional targeted species such as
large and small yellow croaker dramatically decreased, while catches of lower
quality fish species increased. Through the mid-1980's, catches rose an average
of 20% each year, and the main targeted species shifted to small sized pelagic
fishes such as anchovies, mackerels, and squids which eventually constituted
more than 60% of the total catch. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The accelerating harvest, a lack of systematic fisheries management combined with a loss of fishery habitats, the destruction of
nursery and breeding grounds have created a decline in the offshore fishery
resources evident today.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Due to the current situation of marine environment, are further increases of urban coastal
areas still possible?</span></h3>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">Marine space is one of the main elements supporting sustainable
economic development in the future, and therefore ecosystem functions must be
considered when analyzing the capacity of marine spatial resources to
accommodate future development needs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">According to China’s planned development, by 2020 -2030, the coastal
areas’ population will grow from 524 mil now, to 700 mil and then 840 mil
people, which is more than a 50% increase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">Industrialization of these coastal areas will require increased pressures
on marine spatial resources. Harbors’ shoreline may increase from 600 km to
more than 1,000 km. Coastal industries and urban development may require sea
reclamation of more than 5,000 km2. Port construction, ship building and marine
tourism industries will all need to expand their marine space. Modernized
fisheries industries will need to develop seaward towards deeper waters. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">But after this review, it appears clearly that the continued increase as
envisaged for the development of China's coastal areas should be discussed again. Damages
and threats of pollution already registered in coastal zones and marine
ecosystems should lead to modify the organization
and pace of the </span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 16.363636016845703px; line-height: 18.18181800842285px;">planned </span><span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">development.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The China's people awareness on the environment, food and health issues, as evident from the accounts published on the country social network, is another reason to prefer a more quality oriented model of development for the coming years. </span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; line-height: 115%;">In addition, we must not lose sight that far beyond China, the
protection of marine ecosystems and resources is indeed a shared responsibility
with Japan and ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines all sharing with China the same seas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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